Regarding the proposed 2008 ballot question that would ban gay marriage: 40% are either "very" or "somewhat" likely to support it; 56% are either "not very" or "not at all" likely to support it.
Favorable/unfavorable ratings for various Gov candidates (these numbers combine the results for "very" and "somewhat" into "favorable," and "not very" and "not at all" into "unfavorable"):
Romney: 52 fav/47 unfav/2 don’t know (but 55% say it’s "time for a change" of Governor);
Healey: 49 fav/31 unfav/21 don’t know
Mihos: 28 fav/13 unfav/60 don’t know
Rappaport: 32 fav/23 unfav/45 don’t know
Reilly: 56 fav/22 unfav/24 don’t know
Patrick: 24 fav/13 unfav/64 don’t know
Galvin: 51 fav/17 unfav/33 don’t know
Head to head matchups:
Romney 38 – Reilly 53 (don’t know 9)
Romney 42 – Patrick 37 (don’t know 21)
Romney 42 – Galvin 46 (don’t know 13)
Healey 28 – Reilly 53 (don’t know 19)
Healey 34 – Patrick 37 (don’t know 29)
Healey 33 – Galvin 46 (don’t know 21)
A three-way hypothetical race among Healey (R), Reilly (D), and Mihos (Ind.) gives the very interesting split of 22-47-13, meaning that Mihos siphons off almost exactly the same number of voters from Healey and from Reilly.
It is good news that, at least right now, the gay marriage ban appears to be struggling, although early polling on ballot questions is notoriously unreliable. And it’s good news for Dems that Tom Reilly’s "favorable" rating remains high and that he continues to trounce all comers in hypothetical Gov race matchups. However, these numbers strike me as very disappointing for Deval Patrick. The percentage of voters who don’t know enough about him to answer the favorable/unfavorable question remains astronomical at 64%; he is the only Democrat who loses in a hypothetical race to Romney; and he barely beats Kerry Healey with a "don’t know" number so high for that race that the result seems meaningless. In fact, he consistently does less well than Bill Galvin who hasn’t even said he’s in the race yet. And here’s another less-than-encouraging number: the polling includes results from the last survey taken in June. In the Romney-Reilly matchup, Reilly’s improvement (6%) is about the same as the decline in undecideds (5%), while Romney is static (actually losing a point), indicating that voters are moving the right way in that matchup. However, in the Romney-Patrick matchup, both candidates have gained 3% since June, indicating that the undecideds are breaking evenly. If it continues, that is a very bad trend for Patrick.
For a while, it was fine for Patrick to say that he is a relative unknown, that he hasn’t been involved in MA politics before, and that therefore people need some time to get to know him. But with recent reports of his campaign’s financial difficulties and with little apparent movement in his poll numbers, it seems fair to start wondering aloud whether his campaign is gaining any traction outside the small circle of activist/progressive types who are the core of his campaign.