1. Murray will run for Worcester DA (an easy win, I would think).
2. Response to Gabrieli will be, ahem, underwhelming. He’ll end up having to fight to win the convention, but will get his 15%.
3. Patrick will pick Silbert a week or 2 before the convention to create “buzz” – just as Reilly is doing this now for the same reason (and financial reasons I suppose…). Goldberg will drop out after the convention.
I have NO facts to back up these predictions, it’s just sorta what I think.
This is going to be fun, though, because unlike in 02 when O’Brien chose Gabrieli and there were 3 other Gov. candidates and she needed to separate herself, this year, it’s such a different scene, and people were/are fired up about Patrick and each LG candidate has a solid base too (unlike Slattery and Pines in 02).
I think Murray would do himself and his party well by running for DA, staying there for 10 years, then running for McGovern’s seat when he retires, or running for AG (against Barrios!?! They’re both only 37…) when Coakley runs for Governor… As a Congressman, Murray could do a ton for the city he loves with earmarks, etc…
I think Goldberg could stick it out, but given the “party” types supporting her (Grossman, etc…), she may get some nudging to pack it in at some point. Then again, she, along with Silbert and Murray, have to all be thinking that they would add the most to Deval’s ticket. I think it’s a tossup between Silbert and Murray, but who knows. I do think Deval has to pick someone, though, and he might as well pick from the field as opposed to going outside the announced group. (Actually, he’d have to, unless someone else declares by 1/31. I suppose he could get delegate sigs too, but why bother).
But as I said above, Patrick should wait until a couple weeks before the convention to see how the LG candidates shake out – does Murray keep his political support when so much of it is with Reilly already too? Does he get some more $$? Does Silbert keep raising the $ at a steady clip even if people think Gabs will just blow anyone away? Does she start nailing down progressive support after the caucuses? Does Goldberg find a niche and get both political and $$ support? I dunno the answer to any of these, but Patrick should wait and see a while before deciding.