I came to this simple conclusion in the last few days and would like to explain my thoughts to anyone who is interested:
Based on all the recent polling and especially after Reillys scary performance at the Kennedy School – out dear Tom simply cannot win! On a contrary, Patrick and Gabrieli have some momentum: Patrick leads in every poll and Gabs is within the striking distance. Technically speaking, Reilly is in a mix as well but looking at how many of his supporters have jumped the ship lately, I wouldnt count him winning on 19th. So, were left with Deval and Chris and one of them will certainly win on Tuesday. Its no secret that Deval has the largest and most devoted field organization and with the predicted low turnout on Election Day, it gives him a clear advantage. Gabs on another hand can only win if some of Reillys hardcore folks abandon Tom and choose to vote for Chris.
So, why am I saying all of this well-known stuff a day before Primaries? Just to make sure that folks understand that a vote for Reilly is a vote for Healey. If AG supporters vote for Tom Deval wins and Gabs loses. Many of BMG contributors would welcome this scenario, even saying things like: Deval is more electable than Chris against Healey but Im convinced that were heading for another defeat in November. Media talked a lot about Deval being too left, unable to match Healeys millions, even being black as obstacles to his quest for Corner Office. Those are legitimate electability concerns and they were never addressed with effective arguments and specific strategies to make them a non-factor. But the saddest part of all – its not the end of the list. Again, I dont want to offend any of Patrick supporters, theyre certainly all good Democrats but we have to be reasonable in our enthusiasm for a candidate and that includes Deval.
Deval calculated correctly his chances in Democratic primary but went completely wrong in assuming he can beat Healey in general elections. It was so much easier with Democrats – being a smart man he is Deval quickly realized that his candidacy will generate enough support to win the primaries. A populist message is called populist because it appeals to masses, especially if the one preaching it is very good at this. Actually, he is unbelievably good at preaching since plenty of people even hear things, like justice in his voice. His race and his left wing positions (again, both will be issues in November) clearly got him a lot of support among African-American and minority voters as well as strong following among liberal Democrats. A good judge of characters, he saw early what all of us see now in Reilly a good DA who is an awful campaigner. Even a three person race didnt scare DP. Unless there is another Deval in the race, nobody couldve taken his base and opponents would have just split their vote canceling each other out But primaries are radically different from November elections. Just look at the numbers: 600,000 of Democrats and Unenrolled in primaries compare to typical 2 million of general election voters. To win a 3-way, you need about 250,000 votes in September vs. nearly 1 million in November (really a 2-way). In general elections, all these folks are not just devoted Democrats or democratically leaning Unenrolled. More than 60 % of them are Unenrolled and Republicans who strongly believe in Checks and Balances and repeatedly voted for a Republican Governor in recent elections to keep an eye on Democratic Legislature. With all the media hype for this race and tons of TV and radio ads, the lack of voter participation in primaries confirms what we knew all along the real elections are only in November, when voters will choose between Democrats and Republicans. Unfortunately, it became a tradition to give this job to Republicans. And its not just OBrien losing to Romney; its also a loss by Harshbarger to more than mediocre Cellucci 4 years before. Why do you think itll be different this time ? O I forgot, he is no ordinary leader If thats the case, why his magic only worked for no more than 40% of Democratic primary voters ?
Here are a few more facts (besides money and race), not fictions from Deval Experience that will handicap him in November (and of course, my vote is for Gabrieli):
– Backing a convicted rapists [Ben LaGuer] bid for parole and fighting to save two cop killers from death row, winning one of the appeals
– Disregarding the will of the voters on income tax roll-back
– Opposition to charter schools
– Support for in-state tuition for illegal immigrants
– His stands on Affirmative Action hiring a black candidate over equally qualified white applicant for the job.
So, good luck voting for Deval or Reilly, Lt. Governor Healey is clearly hoping for that. With her recent ad targeting only one candidate (Gabrieli), she clearly made her choice in this race