Patrick way up in ANOTHER poll!

State House News Service sez:

Patrick: 36%

Gabrieli: 26%

Reilly: 19%

Important caveat: “… Survey of 400 Massachusetts residents, 201 of whom said they’re likely to vote in the Democratic primary.” Pretty small sample size.

Is this the effect of Patrick’s new ads? Last Thursday’s debate and Tom Reilly’s self-immolation? What exactly is Gabrieli’s money buying him?

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15 Comments . Leave a comment below.
  1. Put that endorsement on your webpage

    Patrick is suddenly the frontrunner.  Does he do anything different?  I suggest: no.  Reilly is tanking.  Does he continue attacking like he did on Thursday night?  He'd be well-advised not to, don'tcha think?  Something radically different, maybe?  Like the regular guy in Watertown, maybe?  As for Gabrieli, he's flat in these polls, and he needs to pick up the undecideds that seem to be breaking Patrick's way.  What's gonna work?  He's been trying the negative tack over the last couple of days.  More?  Less?  We'll know tomorrow.

  2. One caveat

    PAtrick's followers seem to be primarily college educated Gen. X and Y voters, many of them independents.

    Will they show up next week?

    • Where'd you get that from?

      How did you conlcude that Patrick's followers are primarily GenX and GenY? Look at the WBZ/Survey USA breakout. Boomers: 47% Patrick, 31% Gabrieli, 18% Reilly. The only segment where Patrick doesn't have at least a 15 percentage point lead over his nearest competitor is what they call "mature" (65+) (see the column on the far right of the page), and they're expected to be less than a quarter of the primary turnout.

    • I'd say that about Gabrieli

      My observation looking around the Boston area over the past couple months is that Patrick's supporters seem very committed and well-organized --- lawn signs and bumper stickers are everywhere.  I'd expect Patrick's supporters to turn out.

      Gabrieli, meanwhile, seems to be trying for middle-ground appeal, reaching out to independents.  They are a huge source of votes, but don't have a history of turning out in primaries.  If Gabrieli has a GOTV operation that matches his media buys (a huge "if"), then he might be able to win this, but I'm dubious.

  3. I'm pumped

    Thursday's debate certainly will be interesting. I bet Gabrieli gets mean too... what else does he have left (okay, a million dollars a day over the next week is something).

    • Anybody else gotten a robo call from Gabrieli announcing his opposition to $quot;discounted$quot; tuition for kids whose parents are undocumented?

      • Yes -

        I have it on tape, and am planning to post on it shortly.  Hold tight...

      • wowzers

        that's pretty low.

      • Reilly did the most for in-state tuition bill.

        that nobody in this race put more on the line in support of in-state tuition for immigrant children then Tom Reilly.  Deval Patrick also shares the position, but Tom Reilly very vocally championed the issue and actively lobbied the legislature.

        • he did and

          deserves kudos for it. If he was as strong on other issues as he was on UMASS, he'd be in better shape right now, immigration bill notwithstanding (i'm really talking about his very vocal support of the system in general).

        • Reilly was/and still is a very effective sincere stand up guy on this issue!!!

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Thu 27 Nov 2:23 PM