609 (!) likely Democratic primary voters. MOE: 4.1%. Confidence: 95%. More on interpreting the MOE. Survey taken Sept. 9-11, 2006 (all after last Thursday’s debate). Last poll’s numbers from Aug. 22 in (parens).
Deval Patrick: 45% (34%)
Chris Gabrieli: 29% (30%)
Tom Reilly: 21% (29%)
A quick look through the crosstabs shows that Patrick’s support has sharply increased among most groups, and Reilly’s has decreased. Gabrieli has stayed pretty flat in most groups. Particularly striking is Patrick’s jump from 34% to 42% of “independents,” from 33% to 42% among “moderates,” and from 15% to 26% among “conservatives.” Among each of those groups, Gabrieli lost ground slightly, and Reilly plummeted. That strongly suggests that the people who freaked about Reilly’s performance in last week’s debate, or who otherwise are leaving the Reilly camp, are – somewhat unexpectedly – breaking for Patrick, rather than the more “moderate” Gabrieli.
If the State House News poll – scheduled to be released in about 45 minutes – confirms these results, it’s a happy day at Patrick HQ.