Cross-posted at The Eisenthal Report
There is a new virtual prediction market at the Inkling platform – Will Massachusetts Governor Deval Patrick succeed in closing any state corporate tax loopholes?The idea behind the market, created by yours truly, is to illustrate how long (or short) the odds are that Governor Patrick will succeed in convincing the Massachusetts legislature to enact at least some of his proposals to close corporate tax loopholes.
The initial price for the “stock” is $10 per share, which reflects my view that there is currently a 10 percent chance that any of the proposals will pass. Buying the stock indicates confidence that the probability of passage is higher than 10 percent. Doubters can play too, however. If a participant is very confident that none of the proposals will pass, that participant can “short sell” the stock, or sell shares that she or he does not own. This will push the stock price down.
It is very easy to play – just register at Inkling, which is the same platform used by Blue Hampshire‘s New Hampshire Democratic Presidential Primary Market, and then invest away. (Inkling uses virtual money – there’s no real financial exposure from participating.)