Prediction markets work by posing a well formulated question and getting people to bet on it’s outcome. A well formulated question is one that has a clear outcome and a specific time deadline on which to analyze the outcome. Will BlueMassGroup drop David as an editor by August 10, 2007? is a well formed question. How sucky are David’s posts? is not a well formed question.
Once a well formed question is posed, users can buy options [in inklingmarket’s case, using imaginary currency]. If you think the outcome is more likely than the price, you buy. Less likely, you sell [or even sell short]. This works both for probabilities [the sum of the prices should always be approximately $100 since being right pays out $100] or for actual numbers. Why am I explaining this when you could just click here and read all about it.
Bottom line: you can play too, and use your chits to “bet” on what will happen in the future, thereby effecting the marketplace and helping participate in a sort of survey on what’s likely to happen in the future — including who will win MA-05. Sound interesting? Go to inkling markets, sign up for a free account, and get started!
P.S. I included a link to show the current price of the MA-05 race [like the one here], but the inkling way to do that is with a script, and I doubtsee that soapblox will not allow it. We shall see…
* I have no financial interest in inkling markets or any other prediction market — I just think this kind of stuff is cool.
sabutai says
A single buyer or seller can strongly effect the price of any share, as there are so few people invested. Thus, it is not as reliable as a higher-use market. I learned this to my chagrin on my first foray.
stomv says
which is why more users result in higher fidelity. So, buy now, when there’s still such opportunity for gains! đŸ˜€
peter-porcupine says
eaboclipper says
I actually prefer it if the dems remain cocky re: the winner of the primary wins the general. đŸ˜‰ Because the loss will smart that much more. đŸ˜‰
stomv says
but since when have polls around here been complete or consistent? If you have a preference that’s not there, well, what can I tell you… make your own unscientific and for-entertainment-purposes-only poll.