Boston Votes 2007: A closer look at the numbers

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As I’ve already bemoaned the lack of voter interest and participation in Tuesday’s election (see earlier post), allow me to now crunch the numbers.  As a political junkie, analyzing election returns and ward breakdowns ranks among my favorite past-times.  Herein lies how your neighborhood voted, with several interesting orders of finish.  I’ve listed the ward number, neighborhoods covered, order of finish (among the top 5 candidates), and an interesting fact that I read from these results.  Surprised?  Confused?  Validated?  Let us know in the comment section.

Cross-posted at: http://mattomalley.b…

Ward 1 (East Boston)

1. Flaherty, 1095 votes

2. Connolly, 1073

3. Murphy, 912

4. Yoon, 733

5. Arroyo, 466

Connolly’s strong second place finish, no doubt helped by his support from Rep. Basile and Sen. Petrucelli, was an early side of his superior organization and work ethic.

Ward 2 (Charlestown)

1. Connolly, 1121 votes

2. Flaherty, 1101

3. Murphy, 867

4. Yoon, 414

5. Arroyo, 332

Again, Connolly worked Charlestown, a small but politically powerful community, hard.  He had his only satellite campaign HQ there and had recruited many well-known and reliable political operatives.  This was a big win for the Connolly camp.

Ward 3 (North End/Chinatown/Downtown)

1. Yoon, 1281 votes

2. Flaherty, 1133

3. Connolly, 867

4. Murphy, 841

5. Arroyo, 745

Yoon and Flaherty both worked Chinatown hard and built on their strong ties to the community.  That bore out solid victories for both candidates.  Arroyo, who typically landed much higher in the Ward 3 pecking order, clearly took a huge hit here.

Ward 4 (Fenway)

1. Yoon, 906 votes

2. Arroyo, 770

3. Flaherty, 604

4. Murphy, 568

5. Connolly, 461

Ward 4 is a sleeper ward that usually supports progressive candidates with overwhelming numbers.  While Yoon and Arroyo took the top two spots, all five leading candidates were able to pull votes from this community.

Ward 5 (Beacon Hill/Back Bay)

1. Yoon, 1133

2. Flaherty, 884

3. Connolly, 837

4. Arroyo, 822

5. Murphy, 736

These results were shocking.  Arroyo was a predictable ticket-topper in the affluent and mostly progressive Ward 5 over the last few cycles.  Coming in 5th place, although close, would be a harbinger of the final results.

Ward 6 (South Boston)

1. Flaherty, 1971 votes

2. Murphy, 1177

3. Connolly, 1026

4. Yoon, 530

5. Arroyo, 268

Born down on A Street/Raised up on B Street/Southie is Flaherty’s hometown.  His ticket-topping (for the third cycle in a row) was aided by his strong showing in these two politically powerful wards. 

Ward 7 (South Boston)

Home ward of Michael Flaherty

1. Flaherty, 1798 votes

2. Murphy, 1223

3. Connolly, 1012

4. Yoon, 572

5. Arroyo, 360

See above.  Southie helped Michael top the ticket, and gave an extra cushion of votes to Connolly and Murphy.

Ward 8 (Roxbury/South Bay)

1. Arroyo, 422 votes

2. Yoon, 402

3. Murphy, 278

4. Flaherty, 251

5. Connolly, 150

Ward 8′s overall numbers were low, but the line up wasn’t too surprising, save Murphy’s third place finish here (as well as Wards 9, 11, 12, and 14).  His support from Governor Patrick clearly paid huge dividends.

Ward 9 (Roxbury)

1. Arroyo, 664 votes

2. Yoon, 663

3. Murphy, 448

4. Flaherty, 376

5. Connolly, 271

This ward breakdown shows that when Arroyo edges out Yoon for ticket-topping bragging rights, it is usually by a handful votes.  When Yoon tops Arroyo, it is by a significantly larger number.  That may have been the difference between 3rd and 5th place.

Ward 10 (Mission Hill/Jamaica Plain)

1. Yoon, 755 votes

2. Arroyo, 677

3. Flaherty, 586

4. Murphy, 560

5. Connolly, 510

Mission Hill, formerly one of the political hotbeds of the city (and home to the late, great Kevin W. Fitzgerald) is reasserting itself as a politically powerful and competitive neighborhood. The close numbers here present our own “swing-district.”

Ward 11 (Jamaica Plain/Roxbury)

Home ward of Felix Arroyo

1. Arroyo, 1244 votes

2. Yoon, 1202

3. Murphy, 620

4. Flaherty, 582

5. Connolly, 392

Jamaica Plain in general is voting in heavier numbers than it had in the past two decades. Arroyo and Yoon ran away with this ward, while Murphy, Flaherty, and Connolly were no doubt pleased that hey were able to score some points on the board.

Ward 12 (Roxbury)

1. Yoon, 1097 votes

2. Arroyo, 1032

3. Murphy, 649

4. Flaherty, 564

5. Connolly, 392

Another Yoon/Arroyo solid win here with encouraging turnout, relatively speaking.  The Ward 12 democratic committee is among the finest in the city.  Kudos to their efforts to increase voter participation.

Ward 13 (Dorchester: Savin Hill/Harbor Point/St. Williams)

1. Flaherty, 920 votes

2. Yoon, 824

3. Murphy, 806

4. Connolly, 757

5. Arroyo, 642

Ward 13, home to the famed over-the-bridge Savin Hill precinct, delivered strong finishes to Flaherty (the Dot neighbor) and Yoon (the Dot resident).

Ward 14 (Dorchester: Blue Hill Ave/Columbia Road)

1. Yoon, 1038 votes

2. Arroyo, 949

3. Murphy, 824

4. Flaherty, 681

5. Connolly, 406

Another strong finish here for Yoon and Arroyo with Murphy claiming a “show.”

Ward 15 (Dorchester: St. Peters/Ronan Park)

1. Yoon, 538 votes

2. Murphy, 473

3. Flaherty, 469

4. Arroyo, 408

5. Connolly, 270

Ward 15 was a former political powerhouse and has an excellent Ward committee led by Sandi Bagley, Ed Cook, and John Parsons.  Unfortunately, turnout was light, but all candidates tellingly made a play for this ward.

Ward 16 (Dorchester: St. Brendan’s/St. Ann’s/St. Mark’s)

1. Flaherty, 2181 votes

2. Murphy, 1852

3. Connolly 1797

4. Yoon, 1242

5. Arroyo, 649

Solid wins here for Flaherty, Murphy, and Connolly, no doubt aided by the always reliable Keystone girls.  Ward 16 is among the most politically active neighborhoods in the city.  You must make a decent showing here to win citywide.

Ward 17 (Dorchester: Codman Square/Lower Mills/St. Gregory’s)

Home ward of Sam Yoon

1. Yoon, 1283 votes

2.  Flaherty, 1018

3. Arroyo, 988

4. Murphy, 962

5. Connolly, 731

Like Ward 16, Ward 17 is a politically active (and savvy) ward.  It tends to identify with more progressive pols and rewarded resident Yoon with a solid win.  Flaherty and Arroyo also posted strong showings here.

Ward 18 (Mattapan/Hyde Park)

Home ward of Steve Murphy

1. Murphy, 3085 votes

2. Flaherty, 2668

3. Yoon, 2415

4. Connolly, 2334

5. Arroyo, 2196

Murphy romps in his home ward with Flaherty, Yoon, and Connolly rounding out the top field.  Arroyo, who until recently lived in Hyde Park, needed a stronger showing here to make it into the winners circle.

Ward 19 (Jamaica Plain: Moss Hill, Pond side, White City/Roslindale)

1. Yoon, 1771 votes

2. Arroyo, 1688

3. Murphy, 1098

4. Flaherty, 1094

5. Connolly, 1057

Yoon and Arroyo take Ward 19 with solid victories.  Murphy, Flaherty, and Connolly are statistically tied and will almost certainly give a little extra love to Ward 19 with the hopes of edging past the other two in 2009.

Ward 20 (West Roxbury/Roslindale)

Home ward of John Connolly

1. Connolly, 4493 votes

2. Flaherty, 3318

3. Murphy, 3048

4. Yoon, 2248

5. Arroyo, 1644

Connolly, born in Rozzie and living in West Roxbury, ran roughshod over all of his opponents on his home turf.  His margin of victory over second place finisher Flaherty (1175 votes) wasn’t the deciding factor that led him to victory, but it sure helped. Despite having my mug (and the much more photogenic John Tobin) on his palm cards, Connolly home wa
rd advantage was stunning. 

Ward 21 (Allston/Brighton)

1. Murphy, 1099 votes

2. Flaherty, 1091

3. Yoon, 924

4. Arroyo, 666

5. Connolly, 661

These results would seem to indicate that “the Russians,” (the large voting block marshaled by Nyack Vysocky of Wallingford Road) opted to support only Flaherty and Murphy (and, to a lesser extent, Yoon).  As perhaps the last remaining ethnic voting block of Boston politics, this group can make or break candidacies.  As Flaherty and Murphy came in first and second place, this block was not the determining factor, but it ensured a win in a low-turnout race.

Ward 22 (Allston/Brighton)

1. Murphy, 1515 votes

2. Flaherty, 1462

3. Connolly, 1403

4. Yoon, 1239

5. Arroyo, 927

Close finishes here.  Murphy has roots and strong neighborhood support in Brighton, as does Flaherty.  Connolly’s law practice (and partners) are based out of Brighton and he worked the neighborhood hard.  Yoon, and to a lesser extent Arroyo, made a play for the young professionals, progressive organizations, and new residents.  All claimed strong wins in varying precincts.

Cross-posted at: http://mattomalley.b…

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6 Comments . Leave a comment below.
  1. great write up


    I have a question I've always wanted to ask a Boston political junkie. 

    Let's say you were given the job of running a candidate against Menino who would lose only 55-45. 

    Who would you choose (short of Big Papi) and what would be your strategy? 

  2. Wow

    Matt, great write up. I think it's really shocking that Murphy, in particular, ran away with Allston-Brighton the way he did. AB must have at least as many minority voters, naturalized immigrants, young professionals, college students/recent grads and other progressive voters as conservatives.

    I guess just not enough of them showed up on Tuesday.

    Also, wierd to see Connolly comeing in 5th in my home ward, 21. Clearly Schofield-Connolly didn't have our neighborhood behind them at all, let alone totally locked-down they way it seemed they did during the summer.

  3. Thanks Matt

    I saved this for future reference

    eb3-fka-ernie-boch-iii   @   Tue 4 Dec 7:00 PM

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