Tomorrow is the Nevada caucus and South Carolina GOP primary.
NV: Hillary eeks out a victory over Obama, despite Barack’s support from the influential Culinary workers union. Edwards finishes a respectable third. On the GOP side, Mittens claims a win due to the fact that he is the only republican who has made a play for the state. Also, the sizable LDS population of Nevada makes for an impenetrable base for the former Baystate guv.
SC: This will be close. If McCain can win (RealClearPolitics gives him an average lead of 4.9% in recent polls), he will be the nominee. If Huckabee (who’s evangelical base is almost always under polled), pulls out a win, then the repubs could be headed into Super Tuesday (and possibly the convention) without a clear front-runner. I’d give a slight edge to Huck in this contest, if for no other reason than I’d like the GOP to remain in disarray for as long as possible. Also, look for Thompson to end up in fourth place, drop out, and endorse McCain.
Cross-posted at: http://mattomalley.blogspot.com