And can my February data be used as evidence to show just how instrumental a tough Hillary campaign was to Obama’s Victory?
Yeah, I’m tooting my own horn it’s easy to highlight the rare prediction that pans out and ignore ones that miss the mark.
Still, in February with clear prescience I channeled my inner Miss Cleo. And based on Dem primary voter turnout I identified Virginia, Iowa, Missouri as states flipable from red to blue:
People in VA are less enthusiastic about voting for John McCain in 2008; the Dems won 685,485 more VA primary votes; the republican voting base shrank – Virginia is in play this November.
Missouri is also in play. The Dems outvoted the GOP by 235,214 votes. The number of MO Dem primary voters has more than tripled since the 2000. Not a guaranteed win, but in play.
I’d also throw in play Iowa, based on the record caucus turnout, and Louisiana, based on the 223,000 Dem voting edge and Bush’s response to Katrina. The voting edges in SC and GA give me hope for November, but I wont hold my breath. I see these states as currently red, but should not be written off yet.
I know higher voter turnout in the primaries does not equal a November win, but these numbers should make any GOP’er pessimistic. Whichever Dem candidate you dig in’08, momentum is on our side.
OK, South Carolina and Louisiana were blowouts. But…