Blue Mass Group commissioned the excellent folks at Research 2000 (the same ones who do Daily Kos’s polling) to poll likely Democratic voters a couple of days after Monday night’s televised debate to see where things stand in the MA Senate race. The results show that Martha Coakley has an impressive lead over all three of her rivals. So the debate doesn’t seem to have moved the race significantly — if anything, our poll shows that Coakley’s lead has grown a bit since the last pre-debate poll.
400 likely Democratic primary voters polled Oct 28-29. Margin of error = +/- 5%
“If the Democratic Primary for U.S. Senate were held today, which of the following candidates would you vote for?”
Note that, if these numbers hold up, even if Capuano picks up every single undecided voter, Coakley still wins.
We also wanted to know how firmly people are committed to their candidates at this time. So the 78% of respondents who gave a preference were asked:
“Is that a firm choice, or could you change your mind?” [Firm (could change)]
Coakley: 53% (47%)
Capuano: 58% (42%)
Pagliuca: 60% (40%)
Khazei: 62% (38%)
Coakley’s lead holds up across all racial, gender, age, and geographic groups (although, unsurprisingly, she’s a bit stronger among women than men). Check out all the crosstabs here (PDF).
Clearly, the three guys have their work cut out for them — remember, this poll is of likely Democratic primary voters, and was taken post-debate. The good news for them, if there is any, is that only slightly more than half of Coakley’s voters are “firmly committed,” whereas that number rises as you move down the list, so that nearly 2/3 of Khazei’s voters are solid.