A very interesting report from Rasmussen, which shows Coakley still in the lead, but not by as much, and with some other big differences as well.
Massachusetts State Survey of 567 Likely Democratic Primary Voters
Conducted November 23, 2009
By Rasmussen Reports
Some other candidate 5%
Not sure 10%
… NOTE: Margin of Sampling Error, +/- 4 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence
Great news for Alan Khazei, who is at least 8 points higher in this poll than in the others we’ve seen — and who is tied with Steve Pagliuca, despite having been outspent roughly 87:1. OK news for Mike Capuano, who polls about where he was in the last one, but who appears to have less ground to make up. Not such good news for Martha Coakley, who is several points lower than in previous polls.
Favorable/Unfavorable ratings also tell an interesting story. The following numbers combine “very” with “somewhat” in both fav and unfav.
Candidate: fav/unfav (not sure)
Coakley: 61/30 (8)
Capuano: 62/26 (12)
Khazei: 47/31 (22)
Pagliuca: 49/37 (14)
Frankly, I’m not sure I really believe those numbers. In particular, I doubt that Khazei has had enough exposure to have unfav ratings that are that high. Nonetheless, they’re food for thought.
Particularly because, as Frank notes, there will be much talk about Afghanistan next week, things could get pretty interesting before Dec. 8.