The results are in from BMG’s exclusive statewide poll in next week’s special Senate election. Research 2000 interviewed 500 likely voters on Tuesday and Wednesday (and we do mean “interviewed” — Research 2000 does live interviews, unlike robo-pollsters Rasmussen and PPP). That means that our poll is the first (and so far only) one taken entirely after Monday’s final televised debate. Here’s what they came up with (margin of error is +/- 4%).
QUESTION: If the 2010 special election for U.S. Senate were held today, would you vote for Martha Coakley, the Democrat, Scott Brown, the Republican, or Joseph Kennedy, the Libertarian candidate?
ALL DEM REP IND Martha Coakley 49% 82% 7% 36% Scott Brown 41% 12% 85% 49% Joseph Kennedy 5% 1% 2% 11% Undecided 5% 5% 6% 4%
Particularly interesting in these numbers is the breakdown of unenrolled (independent) voters. Brown is ahead in that group 49-36; significant, to be sure, but not the overwhelming advantage suggested in the Rasmussen (71-23) and PPP (63-31) polls that came out recently.
Some details for the wonkish:
The Research 2000 Massachusetts Poll was conducted from January 12 through January 13, 2010. A total of 500 likely voters who vote regularly in state elections were interviewed statewide by telephone.
Those interviewed were selected by the random variation of the last four digits of telephone numbers. A cross-section of exchanges was utilized in order to ensure an accurate reflection of the state. Quotas were assigned to reflect the voter registration of distribution by county.
The margin for error, according to standards customarily used by statisticians, is no more than plus or minus 4% percentage points. This means that there is a 95 percent probability that the “true” figure would fall within that range if the entire population were sampled. The margin for error is higher for any subgroup, such as for gender or party affiliation.