David Bernstein runs it down in the Phoenix:
The argument for Lynch’s vulnerability goes as follows. First, the primary will be dominated by die-hard Democrats, who are big fans of health-care reform. Second, many of the district’s high-voting conservative Democrats – such as those in Lynch’s home base of South Boston – no longer think of themselves as Democrats, and may skip the primary. Third, anti-incumbent sentiment could play against Lynch, especially in outlying parts of the district, like Bridgewater, Norwood, and Walpole, where Brown beat Martha Coakley two-to-one. And fourth, Lynch has had a complete breakdown of his relationship with labor – his core Democratic constituency, which in the past made him invulnerable, despite the displeasure of the liberals.
Personally, I think with an improved economy that will put people in a better frame of mind toward the President and his policies, a relatively puny $1 million in the bank — a few hedge fund managers, now free to make unlimited expenditures, could match that in an afternoon — and a record of votes against the interests of his constituents, in particular every Democrat and all union members in the state, Lynch is very vulnerable.
As to the headline, Wikipedia explains it all. The Draft Harmony Wu Facebook Group is up to 932 members.
noternie says
First and Second I think Lynch’s hard core supporters will come out to vote for him, whether they consider themselves Democrats or not. Many would say they consider themselves Democrats, but more in the mold of a Finneran; hoping the party would return to what it “should be” or what it once was “before the loony left took over.” So they’ll come to vote in a Democratic primary to save the Democratic party, in essence.
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p>Just as the liberal wing of the party wants to throw Lynch for voting no even though he wanted a MORE LIBERAL version of health care reform, some of the conservative Dems will save him because he voted no, regardless of why.
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p>I’m not arguing whether they are right or wrong, just how many think about it.
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p>Third, I’m not sure the anti-incumbent thing is going to play all that strong. There’s going to be a lot of new faces in the House and Senate, in County and statewide offices, in Delahunt’s district and maybe even the Governor’s office. That’s a whole lot of turnover right there. Will there be enough demand for even more? I don’t think so.
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p>And fourth: Lynch gets a lot of support from building trades workers in particular, the rank-and-file of which are more conservative than other union members. Even with the leadership of his own union criticizing him, getting a large block of building trades guys to stay home or pull the lever for a more liberal candidate is a tough sell.
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p>When Lynch has been unopposed in a primary or a general election, I’ve left my ballot blank. If he’s got a credible opponent, I’ll back them, sell them to friends and neighbors and anyone that will listen. But if he loses, I’ll be more surprised than I was when Coakley lost.
mike_cote says
I vote every time and have blanked on Lynch several times now. I am so tired of people running unopposed when the ratings are in the toilet that I support challengers, even long shot challengers, if only to make every politician have to campaign.
tedf says
I pulled a Cato on my favorite Bush administration troglodyte, John Yoo, in a recent post. Maybe our new usage (“[Insert name of particularly odious political figure] must be destroyed”) will catch on!
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p>TedF