Very, very good news for Deval Patrick in the latest Suffolk/7News poll. The numbers generally support the findings of the Rasmussen poll that came out a couple of weeks ago.
500 registered voters, MOE +/- 4.4%, 95% confidence level.
Also important (and maybe moreso than horse race numbers at this stage) are the fav/unfav ratings (available here as a PDF).
Patrick: 45/46 (38/50) +7/-4
Baker: 20/17 (18/12) +2/+5
Cahill: 22/34 (31/16) -9/+18
Patrick’s numbers are all moving the right direction – up in horse race, up in fav, down in unfav. Baker is getting some positive and some negative movement (the uptick in unfav), and still has a massive “who?” response (31%). Cahill gets nothing but bad news, probably in part because of the RGA’s dive-bombing of him.
There certainly continue to be danger signs for Patrick in this poll. The right direction/wrong track breakdown is still unhelpful (36/52), and the “reelect/give someone else a chance” breakdown is strangely disconnected from the horse race numbers (33/55). And if Cahill continues to fade, that is likely to boost Baker’s numbers as Cahill becomes a less plausible “not Deval” vote. So there is much to do. Still, things look markedly better for Patrick than they did a couple of months ago.
Here’s some free advice to all the candidates. Deval: keep doing what you are doing, especially the hectic campaign schedule. The more you get out there and pitch your message in person, the more those numbers will keep creeping up. Charlie: stop sucking as a candidate. The more stupid things you say in public, the more the pundits will see you as a not-ready-for-prime-time wonk who never should have gotten into electoral politics — and the easier it will be to put the ads together. Tim: … well, I got nothing.