FiveThirtyEight.com became a must-read during the 2008 presidential race for its insightful, truly reality-based analysis of otherwise very confusing numbers that were constantly being tossed around. Nate Silver, the blog’s proprietor, is left-leaning, but knows what he’s doing and doesn’t let his ideological views cloud his assessments.
To its credit, the New York Times has given him space on its blog pages, so he now resides on the NYT’s website. He’s located at http://bmg.ma/d0Br5J
A couple of days ago, 538 released comprehensive analyses of the state of the Governor’s races across the country. His take on Massachusetts, based on the numbers available so far, is this:
Likely results: Patrick 46.9%; Baker 42.4%; Cahill 8.3%
Likelihood of win: Patrick 73.4%; Baker 26.6%; Cahill 0.0%
For what little its worth, those numbers are in line with my “seat of the pants,” “gut instinct” assessment. There are others whose gut instinct “likelihood of win” numbers are different, but 538’s is the one to watch, since it’s the one based on data. Obviously, these numbers will change as time goes on. But keep your eye on 538’s analysis.