Our friends at RMG report that Charlie Baker’s internal pollster shows the race as a dead heat at 40-40.
This is, of course, terrible news for Team Baker. Why? Two reasons. One, the very same pollster had Baker at +7 two weeks ago, as the Bakerbots announced with great fanfare in an effort to counter news of
real other polls showing Baker down 6-8 points. Second, Nate Silver, who has forgotten more about polling than most people ever knew, says that an internal poll typically favors its candidate by about six points. If you figure that into today’s announcement by Team Baker, that would put Patrick ahead by about 6 points – exactly where he’s been for months.
What would be really interesting to know is whether Baker’s support is collapsing to the extent today’s announcement suggests, or whether that first one was a total outlier. Either way, bad news for Team Baker.