On the heels of Charlie Baker’s effort to spin the news with another internal poll – quite an unsuccessful effort, I might add – Suffolk has released a new poll showing what basically all independent polls have shown recently: Patrick holds a modest but real lead; Patrick does better in terms of the favorable/unfavorable rating; and voters overwhelmingly think he has the best temperament to be Governor.
Highlights from today’s poll (all the gory details available here) are:
Horserace: Patrick 46%, Baker 39%, Cahill 9%, Stein 2%, undecided 5%
Fav/unfav: Patrick +3 (47-44); Baker 0 (36-36)
Best temperament to be Gov: Patrick 46%, Baker 22%
Who will be elected: Patrick 59%, Baker 25%, Cahill 3%
One final point: among unenrolled voters, Baker leads by 11 points, 45%-34%. That sounds great, until you remember that at this very point in the special Senate election, Suffolk – which very nearly nailed the final result (the poll showed Brown up 50-46; the actual was 52-47) – had Brown ahead a staggering 35 points (65%-30%) among unenrolleds. So a modest 11 point lead won’t cut it for Baker – there’s no path to victory there.
If there’s a ray of good news in here for Charlie Baker, I honestly can’t spot it. The race shows no signs of moving, and Baker’s having been put on the defensive by his foolish embrace of Jeff Perry and the Big Dig memo make it unlikely that there will be much movement in his favor anytime soon. Furthermore, if you normalize Baker’s internal poll using Nate Silver’s 6% rule (he says that internals generally favor their candidate by about 6 points over independent polls), the polls are all pretty consistent.
The polls (the real ones, anyway) say Deval can and should win. All you have to do is make it happen.