Rasmussen has a new poll out, apparently taken Saturday night after the president’s visit. Bottom line: Patrick’s lead remains intact. This poll therefore supports what Suffolk said last week, and severely undermines the reliability of the Baker “internal” poll that supposedly showed Baker up 7 points. For comparison purposes, I’ve put the Suffolk poll, taken about a week ago, in (parens), and the last Rasmussen poll, dated 9/28, [in brackets].
750 LVs, MOE = +/- 4%
Patrick: 47 (46) 
Baker: 42 (39) 
Cahill: 6 (10) 
Other/Stein: 3 (1) 
Undecided: 2 (4) 
The simple takeaway is that, for all of the drama of Loscocco-gate, President Obama’s visit, and the rest of it, we see a remarkably unchanged race. For months now, Governor Patrick has been showing a modest but clear lead in virtually every reported poll. The outlier is the Globe/UNH poll, which showed Patrick ahead by only 1. But outliers do happen – a 95% confidence level (which all of these pollsters use) means that 1 in every 20 polls gives you a bad result. And, of course, there’s the Baker “internal” poll, which allegedly showed Baker at +7. Frankly, I think with today’s Rasmussen result, we can pretty well discount that one. (Cue the BakerBots to explain what a crappy pollster Rasmussen is, exactly as they tried to do for Suffolk last week. Hilarious.)
I don’t have access to the fav/unfav and other innards of today’s poll, so will look forward to seeing reports about those elsewhere. If you have them, please post in the comments.
So there it is. The message remains unchanged: we are ahead, and we can win this. But we must work for it. This Rasmussen poll will be very disappointing to the other side, but you can bet that they won’t go down without raising as big of a ruckus as they can. We have to be ready.