jesuscrise I think she’s going to do it. I’m in. She can win. I wouldn’t have said this last week. Nothing has changed since then except my opinion. As for her running, Sen. Patty Murray from Washington State, the national point person in getting Teddy’s seat back, whispered to the press last week that someone (by that she means a real candidate) would be stepping up soon. Then the Senate did some in-house procedure that wiped out the possibility of recess appointments, including one for Warren. Warren is good at what she does and has had a taste of power and fame. She likes it. So why wouldn’t she run? Only if she had low percentage of beating him. Right? But she doesn’t. Between now and November of 2012 Warren, the college champion debater, will show case the dumb as a door knob Scott Brown we all know and love. The “David Puddy” Scott Brown. She will ask the right question: As lovable as the incumbent is, during the next 20 yesrs which person do you want working for you in the U.S. Senate? If she can do this and be likable, especially to women. (easier said than done- this race will be won with the women vote) she can run away with it.
There will be no Scott Brown band wagon this time. There will be nothing getting the tea party kooks off their asses to volunteer and vote. This ain’t no special election in February baby. On the other hand the Democrats are coming off a highly tuned coordinated effort that sent the Scott Brown wannabes back to the Stone Age.
So expect the Martha Coakley nomination to come soon. Scotty will have to vote for her. He’ll look like a dick if he does not and people don’t want to hear a John Kerry answer on why he can’t support Martha.
Next up a new A.G. (probably DeLeo) then a new speaker (please God, not Mariano et al)
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Word around is that Sal turned down nine years. Jesus that’s a high number. Any possibility of a plea before the trial ends?
BTW, I think I’m beginning to have an unhealthy obsession with this Sal trial. There’s so many angles. A freakin great American novel/movie if there ever was one. The Dickie McDonough character alone is a best supporting Oscar in the making. Sonny McDonough’s son. Think what they could do with flashbacks.
davemb says
Ernie — what do you propose that Coakley will be nominated for? Head of the CFPB?
michaelbate says
I’ve never been a big fan of Coakley, largely due to her criminal justice record, but she has done some very good things for consumer protection as AG. So I would support her for head of CFPB.
But aren’t Republicans going to hate her as much as E. Warren? They don’t want anyone who will protect consumers from unscrupulous banking practices. It’s perfectly obvious that they don’t want to protect consumers. They want to protect Wall Street and the banks.
Ryan says
don’t want *anyone* nominated to head that agency, they don’t even want the sucker to exist. And without Elizabeth Warren out there trumpeting it, I’m not so sure the Republicans won’t essentially get their way, forcing the administration into some of their ‘compromises’ on top of the already existent compromises, and then forcing him to nominate someone from the industry to oversee it.
Maybe Warren’s at the point that she thinks she’d be best to take her trumpet to the US Senate to keep the thing alive, but other than that, I don’t really see a Senate race happening. If she is going to do it, though, she better get in the race soon.
David says
Ernie floated that prediction here.
AmberPaw says
Mind you, I have nothing against Ms. Warren whom I don’t know – voters will choose the nominee, not me.
However, I consider Bob Massie to have what it takes to be a world class senator so I am putting my typing fingers and my shoe leather where my opinion is.
Do feel free to contact me if you want to know more, or come see Bob Massie himself on June 2nd at 104 Irving St., where Bill McKibben will be telling us all why HE is supporting Bob Massie. But then, Bill McKibben saw the effective leadership Massie provided in the creation of the Global Reporting Initiative.
Ryan says
I think your original conclusion re: Warren was the more likely one, btw. That said, I think the Coakley prediction has a fair chance of happening, I’m just not so sure Coakley would be able to get the votes, either. She’d need Brown, Collins and Snowe + 1 other. Who’s the other? And would she really get those three?
Why would Brown do it if it’s likely to result in Warren jumping in the race? I’m sure he’s smart enough to know that Warren will drive a stake through the heart of his populist campaign rhetoric, making him look equal parts obtuse and the corporate hack.
JimC says
n/t
eb3-fka-ernie-boch-iii says
She will immediately be considered a real candidate by every local and national media outlet regardless of bias.
Perception is reality. Because she is considered first and only “real” candidate the voters believe she is serious and give her a chance.
Money will not be a problem. Wealthy in state and out of state Dems aren’t lining up for Setti, or Bob, or the City Year Guy. And they definitely aren’t lining up with some state rep. But Elizabeth Warren? The money will flow like wine. Steve Grossman will raise ten to fifteen million without breaking a sweat.
She will appeal to middle class metro Boston families. She understands why both parents have to work. She raised kids here. She wrote books on this.
Serious first time candidate who can’t and isn’t buying her way in. We don’t need another one of those. This isn’t California. She and her hubby probably make a good chunk of change working at Harvard. No stock options etc. Just good money with no heavy lifting. That’s not rich.
Where “Puddy” Brown is always looking like he just left the hair and make-up department Elizabeth looks like an attractive woman who spends her day working. Check out the women on their way to work. They look great. Check out the same women after a long day. Not so great. Not ugly, but not that picture of perfection standing at the bus stop ten hours before. Scott Brown is the perpetual young chick in July at the bus stop heading to work. Spending her day trying to maintain that look rather than doing what she’s paid for results in bad news at the next review. She’ll match or surpass Brown in work.
Imagine if Romney is the Repub nominee. What does that do for Brown? Will Eric Fehrnstom have the time to organize the sleaze and fraternity boy aspect of the campaign?
She will be advised by and listened to experienced professionals. Few rookie mistakes.
Nobody will question her intellectual abilities.
She has no voting record. Just books, mostly on finance. Let’s see Eric and Puddy work with that.
She was a champion debater in college. She’ll crush Scott with facts and questions that he’ll have no idea how to respond to.
She doesn’t drive a pick-up because she doesn’t need one. Why does Scott? What’s he trying to prove? All the people who I know who have pick-ups and I respect have them for a reason. Most are in the trades. What, does Scott live on the Ponderosa? Does he just like going to the dump a lot? Perhaps he gets off on helping people move furniture?
Many trees in the forest of Scott being all about fame and image.
Warren can show that our current Senator is broken and needs to be replaced. All things even Brown wins. But if she can make the case, which I think she can, that when we take a sober look at it we are much better off in the long run with her instead of Puddy.
JimC says
I’m not quite sold, but … good answer.
jconway says
She clearly isn’t interested,she will do more damage to corporate hacks and more good for consumer justice in her current position, and with little name recognition beyond political junkies like us she would have needed to get in already. That said I would gladly take her over the B and C Team candidates we are dealing with. Setti seems to think he can be Deval/Barack 2.0 and I no longer think the climate is ripe for an inexperienced ‘pragmatic progressive’ to vaguely run on ‘hope and change’. We need a real fighter to take on Browns record and promise to get his hands dirty in the Senate and fight for Massachusetts, I don’t see Setti or Bob pulling that off. Warren would at least be an A Team candidate. At this point I’d even welcome Rachel Maddow,since I am positive she would excoriate and crucify Brown and she has the star power and name recognition to win, not to mention a built in national fundraising network. B Team candidates that could pull upsets would be Sonia Chang Diaz, Carl Sciortino, and Jamie Eldridge, at least they have legislative experience and are emerging progressive stars. Warren has been Mayor of Newton for less time than Palin was Mayor of Wasila when she ran for higher office,that should tell you something.
David says
That’s exactly the problem. Her “current position” only makes sense when, as now, the consumer agency doesn’t actually exist. Once it comes on line (in July, IIRC), a “special advisor to the president” (or whatever her title is) can’t run it. It needs a director. I’m still where I’ve always been on this: if there’s a way for her to run the agency, that’s my first choice. But if that can’t happen, for whatever reason, then she should run for Senate.
jconway says
I think Warren’s skill set is more suited to running a successful regulatory agency than being the centerpiece of a successful Senate campaign and being a great legislator. There was a time when the public had many competent public servants who were not elected officials and who did far more than many elected officials with their offices. Rosenthal of the TVA is a great example from the past, Robert Gates is arguably a great example more recently. But if the agency can’t exist with teeth and she is a mere figurehead, she could do a lot better as a Senator, and at this stage in the game I’d be willing to support her as a heavyweight against Brown. Setti strikes me as a lightweight, and Capuano strikes me as uninterested and possibly unelectable in a general election. The fact that I am pining for Warren or Maddow shows you how far this race has come.
JimC says
Follow this guy on Twitter — http://twitter.com/#!/MiltonValencia
If you don’t want to join you can just refresh the page.
heirloomtomaino says
who is still smarting over the capitulations and failures of Dodd-Frank, I want Elizabeth Warren at the head of the CFPB. She conceived it and championed it, and it will be gutted without her.
It also happens that, as a progressive Democrat, I think we can’t afford any challenger to Scott Brown that doesn’t have clear and sound progressive values. He and the Republicans know how vulnerable his seat is. A candidate that can articulate our values while calling out the desperation plays that are sure to come from SB WILL win this 2012 race.
I believe Bob Massie lives those values and he has the compelling voice to bring us forward. I’m looking forward to his speech tomorrow in Lowell!