Hey Scott, hearing footsteps?
On the heels of news that Elizabeth Warren was not selected to head the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, Brown’s camp decides to release their own internal poll to the media. The Herald breathlessly reports that Brown’s popularity soars.
While I’m not going to argue that Brown is unpopular, Scott Brown in legitimate polls has shown to be quite popular in Massachusetts. But, I use the term legitimate polls here for a reason, Scott’s polling group Public Opinion Strategies (POS). POS is an extreme right wing outfit which had never met a Republican candidate that it didn’t poll winning or in their analysis finding a path to victory. Their work was humorously shown in the Charlie Baker campaign where the folks at RMG posted monthly that there was no way Charlie could lose, POS even had Charlie winning in October just prior to the vote.
Scott Brown’s rush to push his internal poll now has the odd feeling of desperation which is needless as he is in a strong position. Could just be in his character.
christie2012 says
nt
stomv says
1. point of sale
2. piece of dung
Mark L. Bail says
Shallow Support. He may be popular with (or more accurately, unobjectionable to) a majority of Massachusetts voters. But his popularity is skin deep. Not based on his record or his service. The Democratic Party will not make the same mistakes it made with Coakley whom I voted for, but objected to.
His re-election campaign is unlikely to generate the same enthusiasm it did when it was Kennedy’s seat and the GOP swept the Dems out of Congress. I don’t know how much the Tea Party did for Brown–much less than they think–but they aren’t enthusiastic about him. The Dems’ GOTV will look like it did when Patrick beat Baker.
Elizabeth Warren. If the Dems get their game on, which didn’t happen for Coakley, Brown has to worry. Brown’s a sharp, compelling candidate, and national money will flow into her campaign because the Party needs the Massachusetts senate seat. Brown’s war chest won’t get him through debates or his “mixed” record, sometimes on his own bill.
Republicans, Yucky! Nationally, disapproval of Congressional Republicans is significantly higher (71%) than that of Congressional Democrats (58%); there may be even more disapproval of Republicans in Massachusetts. Brown has tried to separate himself from his GOP colleagues, but that hasn’t always been possible. Scott Brown’s party is a negative that could harm him with unenrolled voters.
The Electorate. Almost any Democratic senate nominee can count on more than a third of the electorate to support her. Dems have a 2 to 1 advantage in registration and turnout.
Brown has vulnerabilities, and the conditions that swept him into office no longer exist. He could win, but it’s going to take more than being there.
HeartlandDem says
I do not apologize to the Martha Coakley fan club….she did not get her game on and that is why the seat was lost to the obscure state senator from Wrentham. The obscure state senator had his game “on” and his mojo “on”……and he will bring it on for 2012.
So, someone better get busy cuz this Elizabeth Warren speculation is embarrassing, especially when I see good guys giving the US Senate race their heart and soul as long-time Massachusetts Democrats.
rmsol82013 says
I think you are spot on in calling Brown’s popularity only skin deep, not to many people in this state would be to happy when looking at the effects his votes would have on their actual every day real life. I think Brown can be very successful politically and is probably in coin-flip situation with any other challenger besides Prof. Warren she would win somewhat handily in my opinion. The reason he won in the first place was due to the special election and that race being the only one on the ballot, Coakley putting her foot in her mouth and not really campaigning down the stretch and since the majority of registered voters in Ma are independents he has not been under widespread public critisms from anybody other than the people that voted against him last time the dem base. With Pres Obama on the ballot, local elections for mayors and other municipal positions and congressional and state leg. races there will be voters that taken into consideration other things than a sitting AG running for senate putting her foot in her mouth regarding the Red Sox.
P.S. The Sox comment even though I heard it after the fact would have been pretty close to a deal breaker for me though.
AmberPaw says
Brown got the same amount of votes as McCain – but in the special election, Coakley did not get the same number of votes as Obama, so Brown won. Too many complacent Dems didn’t make it to the polls on a cold and snowy day.
No more complacency, no matter WHO the Democratic nominee is. Brown is too cozy and complicit with the Kochs to suit me.
Disclosure: I am passionately supporting Bob Massie whom I would be thrilled to have repressent me and protect the environment and middle class in the U.S. Senate. I totally do not understand the fandom-type near hysteria about an undeclared candidate, who has not made her case to me in any way, shape or form. None of the links provided show the kind of vision, long range planning, and depth that I have come to know in Bob Massie.
kbusch says
I think estimates show that GOTV can help if the election is within 5%, but GOTV is not going to help if the persuasion step gets omitted.
Persuasion has to begin now. It has to begin before we have a nominee.
There’s waaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaay too much wishful thinking here that the GOTV fairy is going to make it all better. Right now Brown is known and popular. Massie is unknown and neither popular nor unpopular. Warren is unknown and neither popular nor unpopular.
Could the Democratic leadership maybe wake up before it’s Snowe and Collins forever in Massachusetts, too? Maine makes the same mistake.
jconway says
He is doing this to dissuade a challenger from the right, among which many have been rumored, and also to raise national funds. Let’s hit em back with polls showing every proposal he supports is overwhelmingly opposed by MA voters and make thhe direct links no one outside of BMG has been making between the man and is record. He will make the race a referendumin his personality and we need t make it one on his record.
jconway says
Thats the smartest commentary on is race so far, congrts
kyledeb says
On the DREAM Act, I can’t deny Brown’s power and the folks around Brown. He’s been very smart about the way he’s handled himself with very few gaffes.
Still Mass. Democrats have been outright cowardly in going after him, acting as if the election is a foregone conclusion. Brown has a tough road ahead of him, especially with a very different electorate in 2012. I know I’m going to be doing everything I can to get him unelected. I was out of the country when the special election happened.