I trust you’ll all forgive me a moment of gloating: so far my prediction of what would happen in Iowa, and what the consequences would be, is looking pretty good.
- “a large majority of caucus-goers – on the order of 75% – are planning to vote for someone who isn’t Mitt Romney.” Check. In fact, Romney garnered a hair over 25% of the vote.
- “Romney wins, the Santorum surge propels Mr. Sweater Vest into second, and Ron Paul lands in his usual third-place finish.” Check.
- “The spread between one and three isn’t more than 5 or 6 points.” Check – it was about 4 points.
- “The blow to Michele Bachmann’s campaign is fatal” Check.
- “Perry has enough money to fight on for a few more states but never recovers” Check, as to the first part; Perry announced today that he will soldier on in South Carolina after saying last night that he was heading home to Texas to “reassess.” The second part remains to be seen.
- “Newt’s poor showing and lack of organization renders his campaign similarly unable to recover and returns his operation to what it was originally intended to be: a book tour.” The jury is still out on this one. I think it’s very unlikely that Newt will surge back into contention. But indications are that he will do whatever he can to make Mitt Romney’s life miserable for as long as he can. If that means staying in the race, he’ll do it; if it means endorsing Rick Santorum, he’ll probably do that too. He clearly likes Santorum, and may well decide to angle for a VP slot if Santorum gets the nomination.
- “Santorum, despite his strong finish, quickly fades a la Huckabee – his lack of money and organization in other states makes follow-up victories impossible.” To be determined, of course.
- “Ron Paul sticks around for a while as a thorn in Romney’s side, but never actually wins a caucus or primary.” Also TBD, but I’m pretty confident about this one.
Just don’t expect a similar post when my predictions turn out badly. 😉