New poll: Warren up 46-41 over Brown

Now, don’t get all worked up. But yes, the latest poll (from Public Policy Polling) shows that Elizabeth Warren has retaken the lead in the (largely meaningless at this early date) horserace between her and Scott Brown.

More encouraging is that Brown’s overall fav/unfav is middling (45/42), and he and Warren seem to be locked in a genuine battle for “moderates” and unenrolled voters. That’s very good news, because Brown needs a Coakleyesque (30 point or so) blowout with indies in order to win.

Also good news is that Warren’s “never heard of her” numbers are down – her name recognition is up to 79%. Concerning is that her fav/unfav, while positive, is not as good as we’d like (46/33), and her unfav is rising faster than her fav as compared to PPP’s last poll.

So, take it all for what it’s worth. Obviously this poll contains better news than the last couple. But just as obviously, there is a lot of work to do.


7 Comments . Leave a comment below.
  1. I liked the "professor" note ...

    One other note: Republicans love to label Warren as a Harvard professor, seemingly thinking voters perceive that as a negative. We polled Harvard’s image on this poll and 57% of Massachusetts voters see it favorably to 19% with an unfavorable opinion. Republicans are split on it (37/38), but Democrats (72/9) and independents (50/22) both see it quite positively. Not sure that’s an effective strategy…

    • Agreed.

      The Brown campaign is doing a decent number of things right, but the “professor” strategy is a dud. Wondering when they will quietly drop it.

  2. Brown's support has always been

    broader than it is deep. He’s benefited from being a good-looking cipher. To know him is not to love him:

    Brown is not proving to be an overwhelmingly popular Senator. 45% of voters approve of the job he’s doing to 42% who disapprove. That’s actually up a little bit from a 44/45 spread on our last poll in September. Republicans love him, giving him an 80/7 approval spread. But his appeal to Democrats and independents is not what it once was.

    His appeal to Dems may not be the same, but it’s still disturbing that he’s got 15-17% approval rating among us. It’s not enough to increase Warren’s positives, Brown’s negatives need a boost for a successful election.

  3. Brown winning the PR race

    Brown is still doing an excellent job campaigning here in Western MA – he’s managed to train the local papers to print a headline story every time he moves his bowels. Here’s what came out since I posted last week:

    March 20

    “On Piers Morgan show, Scott Brown talks up Mitt Romney, says he has no Presidential plans of his own”

    March 19

    “Springfield NAACP President Rev. Talbert Swan says meeting with Scott Brown was productive”

    Letter to the editor: “Scott Brown keeps his pledge to voters ”

    “Scott Brown boasts bipartisanship at CheckPoint 2012 Legislative Luncheon in Holyoke”

    “Scott Brown talks jobs, economy during visit to Western Massachusetts”

    “Scott Brown visits Westover Air Reserve Base, readies for Senate hearing Tuesday”

    “US Sen. Scott Brown’s wife defends him as problem solver ”

    March 16

    “U.S. Sen. Scott Brown to host 3rd Bay State Jobs Fair in Chicopee”

    “Sen. Scott Brown joins Cubist Pharmaceuticals officials for 20th anniversary celebration”

    “Scott Brown and Elizabeth Warren trade comedic jabs at St. Patrick’s Day breakfast in Lowell”

    Scott Brown has had 10 positive headlines over the past week.

    Do you know how many “Elizabeth Warren” headlines there were over the same period? If you don’t count the one she shared with Brown, and this one which was likely released by Republicans, then the answer is zero

    March 14

    “Cher’s support for Elizabeth Warren places performer in crosshairs of Massachusetts Republican Party”

    I have no doubt that Elizabeth Warren will win the non-Brown supporting voters who are paying attention. But elections are decided by casual voters, and casual voters only read headlines to get a general impression of candidates. So far, Brown has been painting himself in the headlines as someone who is visible in Western MA, a bipartisan senator who is passing reasonable legislation (like “crowdsourcing”, whatever that is) left and right.

    The Warren campaign needs to step this up. They need to realize that (Springfield Republican) – the largest newspaper in Western MA – will basically regurgitate press releases sent to them during the day because their mission is to put as much “breaking news” out there, so a story that is written for them becomes very desirable to them.

    • No Politician, I was talking to someone associated with

      the Warren campaign in our neck of the woods . There’s been a little reorganization, but everything has been straightened out. We should see the effects soon.

  4. John Walsh

    Where are you?

  5. It's good

    that Warren leads. Best wishes to her fundraiser this weekend. Got 50? Thanks to Susan for getting us Obama+Warren supporters together in Revere. Good night, Democrats!

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