Joe Kennedy III outraises MA-4 GOP hopefuls Bielat and Childs 7:1 and 31:1 respectively

Charley makes an excellent point regarding the largely content-free nature of Joe Kennedy III’s website.  He ought to do something about that.

Nonetheless, it’s impossible not to be impressed by his first-quarter fundraising.  He absolutely demolished the two Republican contenders, Sean Bielat and Elizabeth Childs.

The Democratic candidate in the open 4th Congressional District race said he raised more than $1.3 million in the first quarter of 2012, according to WBUR political reporter Fred Thys.

Sean Bielat, who unsuccessfully challenged retiring Rep. Barney Frank for the seat in 2010, reported raising $175,000 over the same period. Former state mental health Commissioner Elizabeth Childs, the race’s other Republican candidate, raised $42,000 in the first quarter.

Unless this picture changes dramatically, this race is going nowhere.  Bielat is simply too conservative for the MA-4 district, and he can’t overcome that disadvantage by being outraised better than 7 to 1.  Childs, meanwhile, seems like a better fit, but her incredibly anemic fundraising suggests that she simply doesn’t have a top-flight operation going, and any Republican in that district is going to need one.

Personally, I’d rate this race as “safe Democratic” at this point, and Roll Call agrees.  I see no threat from either Bielat or Childs, unless something really weird happens.

The only interesting House race in Massachusetts is likely to be the 6th district, where Richard Tisei has (slightly) outraised John Tierney for two straight quarters - last quarter the numbers were $354,000 for Tisei and $320,000 for Tierney.  Tierney still has a slight cash-on-hand advantage ($800K to $455K), but that’s hardly an overwhelming situation.  Roll Call has this race at “leans Democratic,” which is the last stop before “tossup.”  So, keep your eye on this one.


9 Comments . Leave a comment below.
  1. I don’t know. Picking Joe III in this race is a little like picking Charles to be the next king of England. He was endorsed by the state’s largest labor union without declaring as a candidate even. He doesn’t need to take positions. He just has to get up say “My name is Joe Kennedy. You might have heard of my dad and uncle.” and they’ll stampede to the ballot box. This is Massachusetts afterall.

  2. I'm surprised that Dr. Childs hasn't raised more money

    She lives in a wealthy neighborhood of Brookline, which as you know is adjacent to Newton. Sure, Republicans aren’t the most popular bunch in this part of the state, but $42k? She should be able to do that in Brookline alone. Twice that in Newton. Etc. Running for office costs money… and she might be a better candidate than Bielat for MA-04, but she won’t be able to make her case without picking up more bucks.

    • That's exactly what I mean.

      The only reason I can think of why she’d be doing so poorly is that, well, her finance team must stink.

  3. Doug Rubin is a smart guy

    It is a well known practice to use the “Friday news dump” to release information that must be released but that a campaign or office holder would rather not gain wide spread attention. In this case it is a Friday afternoon news dump before a long weekend, virtually guaranteeing that Joe Kennedy lll’s fundraising is a one day story.

    Why? This would seem to be great news for Kennedy.

    In talking about Kennedy’s fundraising results, his campaign said that in demonstrating the broad grassroots support for Kennedy, nearly half of his over 1500 contributions came from people who gave $100 or less. That means that the most they could have contributed was $75,000. That means that the other 750 donated $1.225 million. That’s an average of over $1600 per donor. Not too shabby for a first time candidate.

    While Charley fairly points out that Kennedy is running on a platform that seems based on nothing more than puppy dogs and unicorns (I take exception to his allegation that Sean Bielat, a Georgetown/Wharton/Harvard graduate “knows nothing”.) I think it is interesting that Kennedy’s handlers would choose to release his fundraising numbers on a Friday afternoon.

    What are they trying to hide?

    It’s not like they didn’t know the numbers on Tuesday, Wednesday or Thursday. It’s not like they won’t know the same numbers next Tuesday.

    It might be that it is more difficult to run on a platform of “Fairness” when 95% of you campaign contributions come from the evil 1%.

    Disclosure: My firm advises the Bielat Campaign. Further disclosure? Read my profile.

    • You advise the Bielat team, so advise us...

      how many of Bielat’s donations are $100 or less? If it’s easier, use $200 or less.

      I mean hell, you make all sorts of claims about JKIII and the day of the week, so do a little analysis on Bielat too.


      • From information that is publicly available...

        Bielat raised $175,000 from 1900 donors for an average of roughly $90 per donor. With that kind of average, it is clear that a large majority of his contributions were from small dollar donors.

        JKlll raised $1.3 million from 1500 donors for an average of roughly $870 per donor.

        As for making “all sorts of claims about JKlll” actually I made none. I refer to Doug Rubin, a senior adviser to the campaign and reference a statement made by JKlll’s campaign manager. Doug’s a smart guy who does things for a reason. I merely suggested what the reason for releasing fundraising numbers on a Friday afternoon before a long weekend might be.

        • "releasing fundraising numbers on a Friday afternoon before a long weekend"

          Oh – you mean like Scott Brown did? :D

          • Perfect point David

            I don’t think it was great news for the Brown campaign that he would be out-raised by the Warren campaign by a 2 to 1 margin. So again my question. Was Doug Rubin trying to hide “bad news” like Scott Brown did?

            • Maybe Doug was upset

              that he only outraised Bielat 7:1. It must have been disappointing not to hit the double-digit 10:1 margin.

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