Bay State to become more bay, less state

So there’s this minor issue of local interest that perhaps should play a role in our Senate race this year:

As temperatures are projected to climb, polar ice to melt, and oceans to swell over the coming decades, Boston is likely to bear a disproportionate impact of rising sea levels, government scientists report in a new study.

The seas along the East Coast from North Carolina to New England are rising three to four times faster than the global average, and coastal cities, utilities, beaches, and wetlands are increasingly vulnerable to flooding, especially from storm surges, according to the US Geological Survey study published Sunday.

via Sea level rising 3-4 times faster along East Coast than globally, government report finds – Metro – The Boston Globe.

It is fine and well to do one’s one part to halt climate change: Drive less, conserve home energy, eat less meat, and so forth. But climate change calls for strong action in our self-defense: If a foreign power or terrorist group could credibly threaten to inundate a good chunk of the East Coast, how seriously would we take that threat?

And many of the actions that need to be taken, like revamping our extremely wasteful energy grid, our completely beyond an individual’s power. We need billions, yes bilions, in investment to make that happen.

And we need a price on carbon, so that the real cost of climate change is priced into the fuels; and so that the renewables market flourishes. Congress can do that. One bike-riding vegetarian can’t.

Scott Brown and Elizabeth Warren should both be absolutely hounded on this issue, every day between now and November.

Brown in particular could put himself in a unique position as a climate-hawk Republican, while covering his left flank and becoming truly cross-partisan. If it were a real commitment on his part, it could be huge. Somehow I doubt he’ll do it, but I’d welcome that evolution.



Discuss

39 Comments . Leave a comment below.
  1. Reaction

    To be genuinely depressed on this gloomy New England day, read the comments on line to the Boston Globe’s sobering story.

    http://www.boston.com/news/local/massachusetts/articles/2012/06/25/sea_level_rising_3_4_times_faster_along_east_coast_than_globally_government_report_finds/?comments=all#readerComm

  2. Hyper-ventilating Globe distortion

    From the Globe article:

    The findings come as Boston and Massachusetts officials are taking the first of a range of responses to the threat of rising seas. The report did not project how much levels would rise in the Northeast, but globally, oceans are projected to increase between 2 feet and 6 feet by the end of the century, and as much as an additional 5 feet during the heaviest storms.

    Wow. That’s a lot of water. But that’s not what the USGS study says. They did state rates and ranges, and it’s a few millimeters annually, some of which is attributable to subsidence. The Baltimore Sun has superior reporting here.

    • Or...

      The USGS report says that since 1990, waters from Cape Hatteras to Boston have risen 2-3.7 mm per year. That’s compared to just 0.6-1 mm rises on average globally.

      • Yes, I just noticed...in the 15th paragraph

        While the hyperbolic opinion of 2-to-6 feet by 2100 is in the 4th, and not stated, as far as I can tell, in the USGS report. Plus no mention of subsidence.

        Compare and contrast to the Baltimore Sun piece. This is why the Globe market value has plummeted from $1 billion to $40 million…readers don’t want the “reporter’s” opinion, they want the news.

    • "a few millimeters annually"

      Note that the level rise accelerates greatly after 1970. It’s about 6 mm/yr over the past 40 years in a lot of local waters, which means 2 feet by the end of the century. If it accelerates from there, then it’s more.

      • It would be great to have some scientists look into...

        if the US reduced it’s pollutants to zero, how would that effect this rise in sea water? I assume there are many other countries which are polluting far more than we are and the polar ice is melting from everyone’s pollution, especially China and other developing countries wanting cars, heat, electricity… SO… we shut down all the coal plants and exactly what does this do to our ocean levels? My guess (for what it’s worth)… NO significant change!

        • Assumption unjustified

          I assume there are many other countries which are polluting far more than we are…

          No, there’s one, which is polluting a little more than we are:

          Prior to 2007 the United States was the world’s biggest polluter, it still however comes not too far behind China producing 5,833 million tonnes of greenhouse gases annually. With one of the world’s largest meat industries and largest oil industries the U.S.A consumes 18,690,000 barrels of oil per day, more than any other country. It’s population now exceeds 310,383,444 so there is a growing number of people consuming oil for transportation, food production, their homes and their workplaces.

          China wins the number one spot for the world’s most polluting country as it emits 6,018 million tonnes of greenhouse gases each year. This comes at little surprise as huge amounts of goods are manufactured in China, then exported all over the world. China also has the world’s largest population of 1,324,655,000 so it consumes vast amounts of fossil fuels for transportation, cities, workplaces and food production.

          China also has a much more aggressive program to develop renewable energy.

          • Correct, we account for 16% of the world's CO2 emissions as far as I can tell.

            But I still haven’t heard anyone answer the question, what would be the result of the US spending hundreds of billions of dollars to reduce our CO2 emissions? Would the polar ice cap melt slower or reverse? Would ocean temps start to drop? Would the rate of warming slow down? I might support some of these efforts to slow down our emissions if I knew what the effect would be.

            • It don't matter John

              It makes them feel OH SO GOOOOOOD to spend trillions and have nothing to show for it, except a lower standard of living.

              I said a month ago that we all are in favor of low energy prices, and man, did the knives come out at me.

            • That would require that you

              first accept the idea that man-made global warming is scientific fact

              • What percent of global warming caused by people burning fossil fuel?

                And how much is natural, like an active sun, etc.

                • For your reading pleasure

                  I encourage you to read the IPCC Climate Change 2007: Synthesis Report, Summary for Policymakers. In “Figure SPM.3.”, it suggests that fossil fuel use accounted for 56.6% of the total anthropogenic GHG emissions in 2004, in terms of CO2-equivalents.

                  From page 5:

                  Changes in atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases (GHGs) and aerosols, land cover and solar radiation alter the energy balance of the climate system.

                  Global GHG emissions due to human activities have grown since pre-industrial times, with an increase of 70% between 1970 and 2004 (Figure SPM.3).

                  Carbon dioxide (CO2) is the most important anthropogenic GHG. Its annual emissions grew by about 80% between 1970 and 2004. The long-term trend of declining CO2 emissions per unit of energy supplied reversed after 2000.

                  Global atmospheric concentrations of CO2, methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2O) have increased markedly as a result of human activities since 1750 and now far exceed pre-industrial values determined from ice cores spanning many thousands of years.

                  Atmospheric concentrations of CO2 (379ppm) and CH4 (1774ppb) in 2005 exceed by far the natural range over the last 650,000 years. Global increases in CO2 concentrations are due primarily to fossil fuel use, with land-use change providing another significant but smaller contribution. It is very likely that the observed increase in CH4 concentration is predominantly due to agriculture and fossil fuel use. CH4 growth rates have declined since the early 1990s, consistent with total emissions (sum of anthropogenic and natural sources) being nearly constant during this period. The increase in N2O concentration is primarily due to agriculture.

                  There is very high confidence that the net effect of human activities since 1750 has been one of warming.

                  Most of the observed increase in global average temperatures since the mid-20th century is very likely due to the observed increase in anthropogenic GHG concentrations. It is likely that there has been significant anthropogenic warming over the past 50 years averaged over each continent (except Antarctica) (Figure SPM.4).

                  During the past 50 years, the sum of solar and volcanic
                  forcings would likely have produced cooling. Observed patterns of warming and their changes are simulated only by models that include anthropogenic forcings. Difficulties remain in simulating and attributing observed temperature changes at smaller than continental scales.

                  • Would you translate this for me?

                    56% due to humans burning fossil fuels?

                    • Not quite

                      Humans burning fossil fuels comprised 56% of the anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions in 2004. That’s not the same as 56% of global warming, because the effects of greenhouse gas emissions are not linear — there are indications that the warming produced by each unit of GHG emission increases with emissions.

                      Meanwhile, the last paragraph of the quote is perhaps the most direct answer to the earlier question you asked. In the absence of anthropogenic effects, we would have been in a cooling phase (less active sun, more volcanic effects).

      • Rising sea levels are an issue

        but one cannot, scientifically, assert the recent trend will continue linearly through 2100. Maybe oceans will recede.

  3. From the USGS report:

    “Though global sea level has been projected to rise roughly two-to-three feet or more by the end of the 21st century, it will not climb at the same rate at every location. Differences in land movements, strength of ocean currents, water temperatures, and salinity can cause regional and local highs and lows in sea level.”

    The Globe cite is accurate

  4. You know JohnD

    that’s your excuse for everything; if others are doing it then why shouldn’t I? Its a stupid attitude.

    • That must be the name calling remarks Dan was referring to.

      I know you think I’m stupid but I like to be pragmatic, at least in my life, when I can. My point was, before we spend trillions, put a huge finical burden on society, make immense changes to our infrastructure… wouldn’t it be wise to know what kind of impact all this multi-decade projects would have? A lot of people want to change the windows in their house to save energy but most experts will tell you the savings from new windows is tiny but the cost is huge. I’m not saying don’t change the windows but I am saying if you’re complaining that your “roofless” house is cold then don’t spend tens of thousands on new windows and expect that to warm the house. This is a “reality” based forum correct. That’s all, sorry you think it’s “stupid”.

  5. roofless houses, windows and a plea for a "reality based forum"

    = stupidity

    Beat it troll, and take Kalamazoo Dan and all his brilliance with you. :)

    • Are you from Kalamazoo Dan?

      Can you imagine the animus here if Romney wins. Try not to spoil the narrative otherwise they attack.

      • Hey man

        You won’t believe why I got that name, along with Trump from Waltham as well.

        I was having a discussion about govt waste and inefficiencies and the nefarious relationship between public unions and Democratic politicians. So I pointed out the fact that in Kalamazoo MI, they merged their police and fire personal into one unit back in the 80′s, and they’re called public safety officers. Not so shocking, they save millions a year and have better response times than cities and towns who keep them separate, as we do here in MA. So, I had the nerve to ask why we dont implement the best practices of other states?

        Well, they unleashed holy hell on me, not even a one of them said it should be explored. Kalamazoo is the same size as Waltham, but more diversified and lower avg. household income. It ain’t some hick town with lots of farmland, if u know what I mean.

        Recently, the city of Scottsdale, AZ began merging their PD and FD and they have 250k people. But for some reason, we are stuck in the 18th century model, along with public pensions and h/c retiree benefits.

  6. That's the point isn't it?

    To spoil the narrative. And heaven forbid that anyone actually attack your efforts to spoil the narrative.
    So since you admit you are here not for honest debate, or a shared set if ideas for discussion, but to spoil the narrative you can expect plenty more attacks. :)

  7. All the evidence point to accelerating global warming--where does Scott Brown stand?

    To be fair, Elizabeth Warren’s site says only a little about global warming, but Brown and his staff have repeatedly avoided saying anything since his election. That’s the serious flip side of his secret meeting with kings and queens–repeatedly blowing off anyone who asks a question he does not like.

    @ Boston Shepard–why is it ethical or responsible for Republicans, conservatives, and libertarians to continue to reject the scientific evidence that shows that global warming is a real and present danger?

  8. Hound at the ready

    Thanks for posting this. And especially for the business about hounding the candidates. As I was suggesting during the ongoing debates in re the DeFranco campaign, most of which I found waay too personal on both sides, one of my key reasons for supporting Bob Massie initially and, later, Marisa DeFranco were that both talked about climate change. Massie, especially, was–actually remains–very good on the subject. My fear was that since I haven’t seen either Ms. Warren or Sen. Brown talk at length on the subject or devote any serious time on their web sites to the issue, it won’t be one. I’ve been told that this is because Ms. Waren is staying “on message,” but I’m not satisfied.

    I spend FAR too much time arguing with friends in Occupy and 350 and transition-towns movements–folks uttery cynical about the ability of mainstream poliicians to even attempt anything remotely substantial in this area (Rio, of course, simply confirmed their suspicions–once again)–in attempt to enforce the same points you’ve made here. We absolutely need climate-change tribunes in Congress, and we need some who take the matter with sufficient seriousness, AND who can explain that conservation and green energy investments and regulations can actually be win-win situations, on the stump.

    I don’t see Scott Brown taking up the cause, though. Don’t see David Koch paying for any of that nonsense. And his votes to date aren’t encouraging.

    So: how do you suggest we hound? I always like using an alternative candidates as stalking horses on key issues; how, now, do we exert the needed pressure?

    • I was on a call with Elizabeth Warren last night

      They took a quick poll of the call participants, asking for votes on the most important issues in the race. Energy and environment came in 4th, behind jobs and economy, health care, Wall Street accountability and national security (not sure on that last one). So, how do we exert pressure? Perhaps more of us environmental types need to get involved and get on calls like the one I was on last night.

  9. I believe the UML debate includes the opportunity to submit questions.

    Don’t go supporting stalking horse or alternative candidates, however. This race is close enough as it is without the risk of a spoiler.

  10. Reducing emissions is the right thing to do - period!

    Yes, Dan we DO feel good about being good stewards of the planet and its atmosphere. WE have the capacity to be a leader even if others weren’t doing likewise. Who cares? Doing the right thing should not require looking over our shoulder to see if others are doing likewise. As for global warming, of course there is plenty of evidence, but even leaving that aside some of us appreciate being able to breathe.

    • It must be nice

      To have such little concerns or worries in life, that one is preoccupied with what the earths temperature may be in 100′ years. Nice to be you.

      • Likewise...

        It must be nice to have so few concerns or worries that you can spend every waking minute taunting people on BMG! Go try your shtick at DailyKos, see how long you’d last there…

        • LOL

          The same people that are chiding us for being concerned about the earth being inhabitable for our grandchildren are the same people who complain about the national deficit being a burden on our grandchildren.

  11. So you'd rather wait 100 years to do something about it?

    I’m not a scientist, but I get the distinct impression we can’t afford to wait on this one. Plus there are concerns that are manifesting themselves pretty much now. Yes, longterm planning generally is more responsible than short-term convenience.

  12. By the way...

    …I have plenty of short term needs and concerns in my life right now, thank you very much, but they need not and should not be mutually exclusive.

« Blue Mass Group Front Page

Add Your Comments

You must be logged in to post a comment.

Sun 19 May 7:31 PM