As I predicted, Obama had no record to run on, the price and monetary problems in our economy would kill any recovery, and his clueless team would do nothing about it. Instead he would listen to his combative echo-chamber advisors and destroy his optimistic legacy by running a nasty, base-focused campaign, and he would still lose. We don’t know about the winning and losing but it looks like the optimism and favorable personal view from the country is going:
His personal favorability, once a strong point for Obama, has vanished and is now being replaced by a personal dislike that is dragging him down.
These data, buried deep in the latest NY Times/CBS poll (of registered voters, not likely voters) are both stark and important. In April, Obama had a 42-45 favorable/unfavorable rating, itself a shock given his vastly higher favorable ratings only a few months before. Now, he has a favorable rating of only 36% and an unfavorable rating of 48%.
What is most notable about this statistic is that it is not due primarily to the bad economy. ..
Rather the cause of his decreased likeability is his negative campaigning, both in person and on the air. He is now no longer the sunny, optimistic, friendly person he portrayed himself as being in 2008. Instead, a nasty, surly, angry image has taken over.
This change is at the heart of Obama’s dilemma. The more he goes negative, the more he hurts himself in the process and undermines the reservoir to good will that has sustained him through tough economic times.
As recently as one year ago, Obama’s personal favorability was ten points above his vote share in most polls. Now it is ten points below it presaging further a likely further drop in his poll numbers.