Brown has the lead on Warren thanks to a 58-32 advantage with independents, comparable to what he won against Martha Coakley in 2010. He has Republicans strongly unified around him (91-7) and he’s pulling a pretty decent amount of Democratic support, 20%, with just 73% of her party’s voters committed to Warren at this point.
- Brown’s TV blitz of conserva-Dems talking about how nice and bipartisan he is, has worked. Wouldn’t surprise me; they’re nice spots for him.
- It’s just an outlier. Nothing wrong with it; just happens sometimes. Every other poll has shown them tied.
- Warren is still not known among the general voting public. She’ll bring home the Dems once the debates hit and once the Presidential race heats up. Warren doesn’t yet have the local pols with independent cred working for her full-time yet. (Menino sure would be a nice get.)
- Or, Warren is becoming better known, and seems shrill and polarizing.
- Maybe the Cherokee thing took hold finally. Pretty sure I don’t believe this.
Anyway, we’ve got our work cut out for us. Five points is just outside the threshold where on-the-ground organization can swing the election. We need money, well-spent media with a clear and convincing message, and shoe-leather.