Likely Voter Poll: Warren 50, Brown 44 (Update: PPP has Warren leading 48-46!)

Bumped for the PPP result. With another poll expected tomorrow from Suffolk, we'll see if there's a polling trifecta. -David

Senior Warren advisor Doug Rubin observes in the comments: "I agree that Elizabeth did a great job with her speech at the Convention, but don’t dismiss the impact of the campaign’s amazing grassroots outreach effort. We’ve already knocked on over 400,000 doors and had thousands of other conversations over the phone and in person – that is critically important, and has clearly contributed to the momentum we are seeing in the polls. Keep up the good work – it really matters." [-Bob]

Huh - maybe those TV ads were better than some folks thought. :-) Whatever the explanation, the main point is that an incumbent Senator whose popularity ratings continue to be high still can't crack 50% in a poll, and is behind as often as he is ahead in the numerous polls of this race. Now is the time to solidify and build on Warren's position. Take nothing for granted; leave it all on the field, as the saying goes. [-David] - promoted by david

A poll conducted by the Western New England Polling Institute gives Warren a lead among likely voters, 50-44, and her lead is even wider among registered voters at 53-41! The institutes past polling was in line with other polls, so this is unabashedly good news for the Warren camp!

The survey was conducted after the conclusion of the Democratic National Convention, so it’s certainly possible that Warren is enjoying a small bounce from her convention speech. The numbers show that she has shored up her support from the party’s base, with 89% of Bay State Democrats solidly in her corner. Time will tell if these results hold up – keep working the phones and walking your neighborhoods, people!

Linky goodness:  Masslive

Update:  Public Policy Polling just tweeted their results, Warren leading 48-46!  While it’s within the margin of error, it’s more good news and a reversal of their poll from last month where Brown led 49-44.  Leave it all on the road, gang!


34 Comments . Leave a comment below.
  1. For the record...

    mski001 beat me to it with this post, but his headline didn’t mention polling so I didn’t read it before posting my own.

  2. Of course...

    …this poll is trustworthy because we like the news, but if the numbers were reversed we would dismiss it!:)

    I’m kidding – I’m encouraged by this news, but I figured I’d get that comment out so our friend johnd wouldn’t have to!:)

    • damn, coaching kid's flag football today...

      And I couldn’t get that point in until now… and you steal my thunder!

      Sounds like EW may be moving the needle in her direction after all.

      • You were doing a good deed.

        The other thing is that the poll was coming right off the end of the Democratic Convention, which increased general excitement among Democrats who may have been undecided or leaning Brown.

        • FWIW... I do good deeds every single day.

          I walk the walk…

          All kidding aside, I do give a very serious shit about my community (local, state and country). My differences with people here on ideology runs deep and from time to time we may get into a spat. But I would help any one of you if you needed help or assistance. I would dare to say that most of you share the same or similar values as I do, we just differ on how to get to those endpoints (we all want to lower the unemployment rate, we all want better schools, we all want to abolish poverty and hunger…).

          The poll about EW could be totally wrong… or it could be a signal of a tide change and she’s starting to win. I have learned to give very little credence to polls, either the ones I like or the ones I don’t like. We all know the only poll that counts is on Election Day!

          • Appreciate your community service and

            Gracious post :)

            On polls, I generally have 3 questions:

            1) Are they an accurate snapshot in time? Not all are.

            2) Are they showing any useful trends, either overall or among subsets of voters? These trends aren’t guaranteed to continue in the same direction through November, but they give a sense of current state of affairs.

            3) Are they predictive of what will happen on Election Day?

            Given that 3 different polls are showing movement toward Warren, I do believe we are getting an accurate snapshot in time, as well as an important post-Labor Day trend.

            Is it predictive? I’m not sure I’d feel comfortable calling anything predictive in mid-September in a close race. I’d certainly rather my candidate be the one riding the positive trend line, but I doubt anyone on either side would say the trend is set in stone through November.

            What this is telling me is that Warren campaign efforts, as Doug Rubin said including volunteer efforts, are starting to pay dividends.

  3. Stop Whining and Start Working

    It’s only one poll, and there will soon be other polls. It doesn’t matter what the polls say.

    It’s time for Democrats to stop whining about the campaign and start working to help Elizabeth.

    Put a bumper sticker on your car (if you own a car). Get involved with field efforts. Make a donation. Talk to other people.

    We can win this election. Keep the faith.

  4. from the Herald:

    U.S. Sen. John McCain gave the Brown campaign some momentum yesterday, issuing an endorsement that said Brown’s 32 years as a National Guardsman give him the edge on homeland security, and setting his statement against the backdrop of deadly anti-American protests last week in the Middle East.

    “Scott understands that our freedoms are preserved by a strong military, and our number one priority is keeping Americans safe at home and abroad,” McCain said.

    And he also knows a dead bin Laden when he sees one.

    • McCain endorsement in a Mass. race?

      Not really sure how that’s supposed to help in Massachusetts, given how he did here in ’08. Not to mention, we haven’t forgotten that John McCain was ready to put Sarah Palin a heartbeat away from the presidency. Doesn’t speak much for his judgment on who is fit to serve. I’m guessing Scott Brown may not want to make too much out of getting the backing of the guy who thought it wasa great idea to unleash Sarah Palin onto the national political scene.

    • How is McCain's endorsement news?

      Of course, we know that McCain was in Boston on June 8 doing a fundraiser for Brown. So, why is his endorsement newsworthy? It’s not a surprise.

      If Mike Dukakis endorses Elizabeth, is that headline news in the Herald also?

      • Maybe because

        McCain has a lot of appeal to independent voters? Possibly Dukakis doesn’t.

        • Not a ton of Mass. independent support

          McCain only got 40% of Mass independents, according to exit polls in 2008.

          If Scott Brown got the same level of independent support in November as McCain had here, there’s no way he could win. Brown needs to surpass McCain’s performance with independents by a wide margin.

          • Mr Brown's messaging

            Right now Brown is saying that he is the mostest bipartisanest Senator ever. That’s good because it will “Get Things Done.” McCain’s image (not his practice for the last 8 years) has been as a “maverick” who will also work with Democrats on what’s good for the country. He plays a bipartisan maverick on TV, and, as Scott Brown is likewise a sort of TV character, this is all consistent with Brown’s campaign message.

            • Yes, but my point was that

              McCain’s alleged biparisany career didn’t go over very well when put to the test in 2008. It was rejected rather handily by the Massachusetts electorate as being either unappealing compared to a real Democrat or a mirage.

              • But Brown is Sticking With It

                McCain ran in 2000 as a moderate (remember the Straight Talk Express?). But by 2008, his rhetoric (and therefore his reputation and TV persona) had moved considerably further right.

                By 2008, Mr. Deficit Reduction had become Mr. Keep the Bush Tax Cuts (the very cuts he voted against (!) because, he said himself, the disproportional amount that went to the wealthy). By 2008, Mr. Dove (McCain argued forcefully against Reagan’s military efforts in Lebanon, and for withdrawal of the troops in Somalia and Haiti) became Mr. Hawk on Iraq and Afghanistan (and China and North Korea and Iran and….) and in spite of years of unsuccessful “nation building.” In 2005, he was calling for withdrawal from Iraq but by 2008 he was suggesting we should probably stay for decades (as in S. Korea and Japan). In 2000, McCain called the religious right “agents of intolerance” using the tactics of “division and slander.” He called Pat Robertson and Jerry Falwell “corrupting influences on religion and politics.” By 2008, he had fully re-embraced the religious right (giving the commencement at Falwell’s Liberty University) and selected Palin as his VP. These major flip-flops just reinforced the concerns of moderates about the conservative views he stuck with all along (ardently pro-life; anti-gay; stupidly “tough” on crime, etc).

                So, all this is to say that I think Brown’s is a lot closer to 2000 McCain than to 2008 McCain. And, in fact and in keeping with the tradition of the New England moderate Republican, is considerably more moderate on social issues than McCain ever was.

                • Right, which is why

                  I’m not sure why Brown would want to link up with McCain and I’m not sure how much good a McCain endorsement will do in Massachusetts. It’s not as bad as appearing on stage with Romney, but it does remind people about the risk of a supposed Republican bipartisan moderate moving back to the party’s core when it’s politically expedient (or in Scott Brown’s case, useful for fundraising from the financial industy, which has rewarded him handsomely for his work saving them from paying $19 billion to help enforce financial regulations). Someone like Olympia Snowe makes more sense than the man who ran with Sarah Palin.

            • That was McCain's image 5 years ago - not today

              At this point McCain is pretty much washed up. He used up all his “maverick” credentials in the last campaign and has done nothing to earn them back.

              I really don’t think a McCain endorsement is worth very much at this point.

              • The cranky people's vote?

                We just got a mailer from the S. Brown campaign that has some group rating him as The Best Senator. Who knew? Number 2? Joe Lieberman.

    • Brown really likes

      being on Armed Services

  5. One interesting point is

    the greater lead among all registered voters vs likely voters. Shows the huge importance of the ground game to get out the vote.

  6. I think the convention bump really helped her

    When the last poll came out, it was soon after the convention. This one’s giving the positive word of mouth from the convention a little more time to get around. The ads may have helped a little, too, but they’ve only been out for a couple days, so their impact will probably be better seen in some of the next polls to come out.

    (Correct me if I’m wrong; the ads came out on the 12th or 13th — posted on BMG on the 13th — whereas the poll was conducted from the 6th to the 13th. So that means that, at most, only people questioned from the last two days of the poll could have possibly seen the ads. Thus, my feelings that the convention has more to do with it.)

    RyansTake   @   Sun 16 Sep 3:58 PM
    • Don't Forget the Grassroots...

      I agree that Elizabeth did a great job with her speech at the Convention, but don’t dismiss the impact of the campaign’s amazing grassroots outreach effort. We’ve already knocked on over 400,000 doors and had thousands of other conversations over the phone and in person – that is critically important, and has clearly contributed to the momentum we are seeing in the polls.

      Keep up the good work – it really matters!

      • I would never underestimate the grassroots :)

        You’re absolutely right, that’s definitely making an impact, particularly now as I’m betting more and more people are engaged with September rolling around.

        RyansTake   @   Sun 16 Sep 5:10 PM
      • Absolutely, Doug!

        That’s why the last line of my post implores folks to keep working the phones and walking the walk lists. I’ve been doing what I can, and we’re working hard out here in the Blackstone Valley!

      • You're right, Doug.

        My little town of Granby has even done its own phonebanking with the help of the campaign.

  7. And now PPP is piling on...

    Here’s a pair of recent tweets from Public Policy Polling:

    Elizabeth Warren leads in the MA-Sen poll we will release tonight. Last month we found her down by 5 pts.

    Our poll will make three from different companies in the last week showing MA-Sen moving in Warren’s direction- pretty clear momentum

    Time to redouble our efforts – make those calls and walk those walk lists, people!

    • and those letters to your local paper

      like this one in my local paper today…

      To the editor: Talk about the pot calling the kettle black! Scott Brown has stooped to hurling insults at Elizabeth Warren. On the floor of the Republican convention and again quoted in The Sun Chronicle, Brown termed her a “rock thrower,” while another article reported that a pro-Brown website called her a “hypocrite.” Really?

      It is Brown who tries to appeal to Massachusetts Democrats and independents while caucusing with the Republicans and taking millions last year from Wall Street firms as reward for his stopping a proposed $19 billion fine for their devastation of the American economy.

      Now again, Karl Rove, New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg and his cronies in high finance are pouring millions into the Brown campaign coffers.

      They wouldn’t do this for a Democrat and they wouldn’t do this without expecting a return on their investment. So who is the real hypocrite?

    • Interesting details in the PPP poll

      Voters wanting Dems to control Senate: 53/36
      Undecideds support Obama over Romney: 76/2
      Warren +20 with women, -16 with men

      • Indeed...

        one has to think that a good number of those undecideds who are Obama voters are likely to break for Warren. She’s got room to grow there.

        • PPP Analysis

          Warren’s gaining because Democratic voters are coming back into the fold. Last month she led only 73-20 with Democrats. Now she’s up 81-13. That explains basically the entire difference between the two polls. There are plenty of Democrats who like Scott Brown- 29% approve of him- but fewer are now willing to vote for him. That’s probably because of another finding on our poll- 53% of voters want Democrats to have control of the Senate compared to only 36% who want Republicans in charge. More and more Democrats who may like Brown are shifting to Warren because they don’t like the prospect of a GOP controlled Senate.

  8. Great news

    And, I must say, a little surprising. (I live in a pretty pickup-truck-heavy neighborhood and see a lot of annoying Brown bumper stickers)
    Keep up the good work, everyone!

    • Stay focused

      While I was disappointed in the delivery of the speech the themes were fantastic and I think the latest round of ads show Warren evolving as a candidate and getting away from the lecturer mode and towards a more empathetic mode. She is also great with small rooms. I also think people finally are seeing the contrast between what Brown stands for and what Warren stands for and are liking what Warren stands for. As soon as we remind people of the votes Brown has actually taken and the basic ideas Warren stands for-a more compassionate society where we all work together-than we will see movement like this. Its just one poll but it shows positive movement and the debates will be a great opportunity to get this contrast.

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