My analysis of the convention: We’re going to win. You can stop reading now if you like.
The Democrats are in a delightful position of having 1.) a pretty decent record to run on, under the circumstances, 2.) A fairly clear focus and message, and 3.) laughably inept — if extremely well-funded – opponents.
The messaging this week was pretty tight, pretty easily formulated, viscerally understandable, and substantive:
- GM is alive;
- Bin Laden is dead
- Dems arrested the freefall of the economy — we’re still recovering but getting better
- The health care bill is protecting people now, and will do even more in the future.
With regard to a statement of values:
- We’re all in this together;
- Everyone deserves a fair shot in life; people shouldn’t be exploited
- Everyone needs to pay their fair share;
- Women should be treated like fully human adults.
- Arithmetic.
It seemed so clear and easy … like the Dems were really proud to run on things they genuinely believed.
Contrast this week’s pride and optimism with the grouchy, doddering, self-loathing GOP convention: In the process of trying to turn Obama and the Democrats into a socialist collectivist dependency-craving caricature, the Republican ticket has mostly succeeded in caricaturing themselves. If one is motivated only by spite (as expressed so purely by Mitch McConnell), one can get led around like a dog chasing a steak, and end up looking pretty silly. And it’s no one else’s fault.
- No one made the GOP oppose the continued existence of the US auto companies … but they did.
- No one made them oppose all these popular aspects of the health care law, where it’s real easy for the Dems to trot out a young kid or sympathetic adult who is benefiting from the numerous protections.
- No one’s making them side 100% with the wealthy versus the middle class and poor with regard to taxes. But that’s how they roll.
The fact is that Republicans could have acted with the President on any number of initiatives, the President’s approval ratings would be higher, yes. But so would the Republicans’. For instance, Romney and Obama would both have a plausible claim on the mantle of health care visionary. And rather than the current vicious cycle of spite and obstruction, we’d see two parties competing with each other for how productive, reformist, efficient, and responsive they could be. That’s how it’s supposed to work … and without romanticizing or sugar-coating our history, it often has worked that way.
The GOP is a party in thrall to its corporate media creations: Fox and Rush and Beck and the 24-7 parade of ConservaPorn. Endless Conan-the-Barbarian* politics is excellent for talk radio ratings, and sells lots of gold bars and stuff. But it leads to a race to the margins, a kind of political correctness where it’s seen as treason to hold something other than the “purest” spite for the “enemy”.**
It is also a crazy, silly way to govern. It leads nowhere. The party cuts itself a smaller and smaller slice of the ideological pie — making itself more dangerous when it is swept into power, but also more prone to long bouts in the political wilderness. It’s entirely possible that we could have three out of four elections be decisive elections for Congressional Democrats. Isn’t that remarkable?
*(Cush enemies. See them dwiven before you. And hear the lamentations of da wimmen.”
**(To a much lesser extent these days, this also exists on the left in the form of firebaggers and the emo-left, but they are without signficant influence, even when they’re right.)
Discuss
39 Comments . Leave a comment below.Was the ACA even mentioned in Obama’s speech? Must have missed it.
and of course many others talked about it in their speeches. This post is a wrap of the convention, not a discussion of Obama’s speech.
For starters….
Obama didn’t “save” the American auto industry, just the UAW. And at a current loss of $50 billion to the taxpayers, at today’s GM share price. It would have been cheaper to pay massive severance to GM’s and Chrysler’s employees, and find jobs for them elsewhere.
The “auto industry” was and is much more than GM and Chrysler which combined accounted for <25% of US market share. Ford, and all the foreign nameplates (MB, BMW, Toyota, Hyundai, etc.) with massive plants here are also the "US" auto industry, if one can even use that description in today's instant, global market.
It's not as if demand for autos would have been effected by their bankruptcy. Assets would have transferred, workers rehired, and better cars produced to meet that demand. Without spending billions of dollars.
Bin Laden is dead. And as John Kerry aptly pointed out, he’s not better off than he was 4 years ago.
Just like the rest of us.
the jobs report for August 2008 shows a loss of 84,000 jobs. Me, I’d rather add 96,000 than lose 84,000. YMMV.
Maybe knowing the unemployment rate is “only” 8.1% will ease their pain as they struggle for dinner over the weekend.
I’m even suspect of the 96,000 increase since the report also says they were wrong about the June and July numbers so maybe this 96K is really 76K…
Another tidbit which is a bad trend…
Only 96K (or maybe 76K jobs), not a good sign…
And are we getting pod paying manufacturing jobs…?
Spin away if you want but these numbers suck!
David, I respect what you say, but these jobs reports have a margin of error of something like 100,000 (per Mark Zandi and Austen Goolsbee.) So the argument is not -84K versus +94K. Additionally, +150k is needed just to keep up with population growth.
We need 300,000 to 500,000 new jobs monthly, maybe more, to make a dent in unemployment.
I don’t see ANYTHING the president is doing that will deliver this.
He did have a jobs plan that analysts liked, but it the GOP though deficit reduction should trump job creation.
Remembering that our GOP legislators promised to focus like a laser on jobs, we naturally were greeted with personhood and ultrasound-rape instead.
What happened, your sheep get sick of listening to you?
Guess you don’t bother to look at economic stats. Math is hard but give it a shot.
And perhaps you should look at the current and recent cross-tabs in the polls. Obama’s losing the middle of the bell curve voter.
I stick to my prediction that Obama is toast by 10PM EDT.
The rest is blather from people with other agendas like restricting rights for women, or selfishly cutting taxes for themselves even if it hurts the community.
The Republican philosophy has been reduced to “get off my lawn, America” and it’s a loser.
Hilarious, and also sad, Shep. By any rational measure, the country is far, far better off than it was four years ago today when we were teetering on the precipice of a catastrophic economic downturn that, a few weeks later, we’d fall into head first. I think you are simply forgetting (perhaps willfully so) how bad things were.
Tomorrow’s the problem.
Hey, I blame Bush too, but that’s over. He’s not running. Now I’m blaming Obama for the highest sustained unemployment since Carter.
88,921,000 people are NOT in the labor force, according to the Dept. of Labor. Workplace participation is at the lowest level in 40 years.
Obama was King for his first 2 years, did NOTHING. Has budget rejected by the Senate 98-0. Squanders 4 years not promoting jobs.
All we have to do is look around to see that we’re better off than we were in the fall of 2008. The banking system is not collapsing. The stock market is not collapsing. The economy is not in free-fall.
I think a better historical question is: “Are you better off today than you would have been under John McCain”. I think the answer is a resounding “YES”.
Mitt Romney and the GOP would have us double-down on the same failed dogma that already crashed the economy once.
I’m not even sure “Dems arrested the freefall of the economy — we’re still recovering but getting better” works politically, either. In some respects, we’re much worse off…lower real family incomes, higher gas prices, and the lowest % of workforce participation since the Carter recession.
In any case, the Repubs can — and will — point to MANY actions and policies of this administration that are KILLING jobs RIGHT NOW.
Is arithmetic that difficult.
Don’t you know that the economy collapsed under George W. Bush, and has recovered, relatively speaking, under Obama.
News flash: this is a reality based blog.
The only reality that will matter is when the voters speak on Nov 6th. One of our teams will win and one will lose.
I am curious how BMGers will react if Romney wins. Will we hear the chants of patriotism and how we must support “our” President? Will Democrats be asking about stopping Romney from destroying America? I’m predicting you guys will be sour, sore and will not be cooperative with a Romney President from Day 1 and will be seeking his replacement for 2016. Maybe you can try to do a recall and reverse the people’s decision like you tried in Wisconsin with Gov Walker… AND LOST!
Hopefully, whomever wins, Americans will come together in a more constructive manner since our problems will not be solved in such a polar environment. I hope you all enjoyed the convention, it may be the high point of the race for you guys.
in 2004, I can tell you that it sucks. It feels like a kick in the stomach. I remember being in a grad class at UMass the day after Bush won the second time. Some folks were talking about moving to another country. Why wouldn’t we be sour and sore? People on either side will be. People who have a lot invested often get sore and sour when they lose.
The Democrats in the senate and house will work against policies they oppose. If they have the power, they’ll use it. That’s partisan politics. Republicans are now attempting to eliminate core Democratic programs (if not the names of the programs). We are in a poor environment for compromise.
Unlike BostonShepherd who is regularly an asshat, you’ve been pretty bitter lately. I’ve defended you when I thought you were being treated unfairly, but this comment–in which you state the obvious and make it look like what’s human is a Democratic character flaw–is just kind of douchey. Moreover, some of us may have supported the Wisconsin recall, but the DNC paid little more than lip service to it.
ambition for consistency and pointing out to people when they are not. When Obama won, we Republicans were not happy, we were very unhappy. I for one, despite being unhappy still wanted Obama to succeed since a rising tide floats all boats (including my 401K boat, my kids’ jobs, my customers… and our countries long term survival). Some Republicans were vindictive and uncooperative immediately and the chorus from BMG was that these Republicans were being unAmerican… and were being lectured on supporting the POTUS no matter what party… and just how wrong it was to not cooperate. I was asking a hypo, since Romney is still along way from winning, if BMGers would practice what they have preached? I’m not bitter, I assure you.
Thanks for telling me how you (mis)-understood my comments and giving me a chance to explain vs. just attacking me… very civil!
Please stop with the Turette’s-like WH spin. Dems+Repubs jointly set up the conditions necessary for the housing bust, and the resulting financial crisis. Bush was president, so I blame him, too.
That was a long time ago. People are worried about tomorrow. Not 2004 or 2008. It’s about growth, not bail outs, nor government spending, nor TARP, not QE3. None of that has worked poorly.
Obama has had 4 years to promote jobs, 2 of them with both Dem House and Senate, but now we have the highest sustained unemployment since the 1930′s. 8.1% Bob, 8.1%.
And the lowest workplace labor participation since Carter.
I love your math interpretation.
Four years is not such a long time ago when Mitt Romney and the GOP flog the same failed dogma that caused the 2008 collapse.
It has been pointed out in numerous places here that private sector job creation has actually been quite strong during President Obama’s first term, in comparison to other post-recession periods.
Why is unemployment so high then? Because of massive public sector (federal, state and local) job losses. Because the GOP has ignored not only the lessons of 2008, but also the lessons of 1937 — and literally forced the layoffs of enormous numbers of public sector employees.
The GOP demands smaller government, and then shrieks about job losses when it gets what it wants. Typical.
Charley,
1. Can’t disagree — Dem messaging was great. Good 4 days.
2. But the rest of us were outside the bubble. Jobs number out today. <100k. Political winds change quickly.
3. Also, while each night's major address was strong, Jerusalem unforced error. With a Florida election likely to be as close as Bush/Gore, and Romney no path to victory without it.
4. From TV land, I wonder if Warren won the convention battle (love from the throng) but lost the war. The contrast versus Brown's big TV buy, help the fishermen and honor an old veteran, was stark.
That ad especially irked me since I’ve pointed out that Brown voted against helping them on numerous occasions. Warren have a great speech but he has got to negative and the people’s pledge has been an albatross around her neck
I can say about Scott Brown, but his campaigns have been very effective.
The People’s Pledge has pretty effective in minimizing criticism of Brown so far, and his campaign got the credit for it, which was even better for him.
It would be interesting to consider what outside groups could do that wouldn’t violate the People’s Pledge. Could they do an ad that talked about the legislative history dealing with Massachusetts fishermen? Could they do ads highlighting the legislation Brown supported without saying his name? Then they could let the media explain the commercials. I don’t know if this is practical, particularly at this point, but in the future there will be ways around this law.
Perhaps now you might look at the polling from NH and conclude it’s a Romney state, not a toss-up.
who the “you” is in your comment. me?
i have no idea what the NH polling is.
so i looked.
seems it’s more of an Obama state, no?
… the full court press of trolls here at BMG today, indeed in just the past two hours, I’d have to call the DNC Convention a rousing success: the usual fey and fetid smarm has more than a hint of pellucid despair to it.
Judging from the more prosaic point of view of a simple political convention, absent the sturm und drang of compassionless conservatism, it remains a rousing success, on all counts. It’s like somebody secretly replaced our Democratic party with a caffeinated Democratic party. Let’s see if anybody notices… The Democrats were at another level, like the Patriots were when Grand Moff Belicheck first came down from planet Football to raise the game. At least SEVEN brilliant speeches and, of the rest, no clear dud or flat one. Wow!
Such success, however, almost undoes our dear and beloved Hizzoner Deval “the Bahn Stormer” Patrick who, with Sandra Fluke, ties, in my humble estimation, for the second best speech of the entire convention (so sorry Michelle, EW, etc… )
This guy didn’t have caffeine, I think he was just doing his job as a union mouthpiece…
Good so far…
But here’s some good news about the story which you guys don’t want to hear from BC Huselton, who was head of HR at GST!!!!
If Bain came in looking like a vampire they wouldn’t last all that long: plenty of companies are looking for sugar daddies for a cash infusion; happens all the time; but Bain took it that one step further. There is a reason it’s called ‘vulture capitalism’…
I see nothing wrong with that, so long as he is labelled accordingly… which he was.
The DNC was exceptionally successful – one of the best conventions in years, and vastly superior to the Republicans’ sad effort, as even most Republicans would quietly acknowledge if they’re being honest. Of course, we’ll see soon what sort of “bump,” if any, comes out of it; this race may be the sort in which conventions don’t have a big impact on poll numbers. But judging strictly on the merits of the speeches, I’m hard-pressed to think of a recent one on either side that was as consistently high quality.
are correct.
then you’ll like a Country & Western concert.
Both conventions were on the lame side. And neither will have much impact on this election. Nominations for both were per-ordained, not much drama (except for your 3 voice votes…well played,) and both nominees’ acceptance speeches were weak.
Conventions are now just a waypoint in a political race that began when last April when Romney tied up enough primary delegates.
you’ve been pretty quiet the last few months, and then suddenly, after a very successful DNC, you’re out with guns a-blazin’. I wonder what changed. (Actually, I don’t.)
I think the party did a great job articulating a clear and consistent message for November, each speaker was on message and reinforced one another and more importantly reiterated why we should re-elect the President. Huge contrast to GOP where speakers like Rubio and Christie served themselves over the ticket, speakers like Huckabee and Santorum turned off independents, and the four principles- Ann spouse speech, Ryan veep speech, Clint nominating speech and Mitt nomination speech were all significantly weaker with muddled messages than their Dem counterparts. If voters watched our convention we will get a bounce.
Based on the two conventions, Dems would win. But…
this (How The GOP Could Steal America’s 2012 Election)
and this (“President Romney” – How to Prevent Those Two Words From Ever Being Spoken) .
The URL’s that didn’t come through above:
http://www.zcommunications.org/how-the-gop-could-steal-americas-2012-election-by-bob-fitrakis
http://www.michaelmoore.com/words/mike-friends-blog/president-romney-how-prevent-those-two-words-ever-being-spoken
In my separate post “Revivibg Caring Capitalism” I mentioned that we should highlight Costco and apparently their CEO spoke, glad to see the themes that we are not against a free market we are for a fair market.
No, he didn’t. He saved General Motors and Chrysler. “Detroit” (and Flint and Pontiac and Saginaw) are not defined by the global corporations who suck our towns dry and then split town to make more money elsewhere (except, of course, they continued to design and built crap cars, so eventually they didn’t make the money at all). These cities in Michigan are about the people who live here, and in the process of “saving Detroit,” Mr. Obama had to fire thousands of these people, and reduce the benefits and pensions of those who were left. There’s a lot of pissed off people in Michigan (and Wisconsin and Ohio), people who weren’t saved even though the corporation was. I’m just stating a fact, and those of you who don’t live here should know this.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/michael-moore/president-romney-how-to-p_b_1863818.html
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