Trifecta: Suffolk poll shows Warren ahead of Brown, 48-44

Suffolk University has just released its latest poll on the Senate race, and it confirms the results released yesterday by Public Policy Polling and Western New England: there has been a marked swing toward Elizabeth Warren in the Senate race, and she is now in the lead.  From Suffolk’s press release:

Democratic challenger Elizabeth Warren (48 percent) has overtaken incumbent Republican Scott Brown (44 percent), in a Senate squeaker that still falls within the margin of error, according to a Suffolk University/7NEWS (WHDH-Boston) poll of likely general election voters in Massachusetts. Eight percent of those polled were undecided or chose someone else.

These results contrast with a Suffolk University/7NEWS poll conducted in May, when Brown led Warren 48 percent to 47 percent, with 5 percent either undecided or choosing someone else.

“Fresh off a new TV ad buy and a prime time convention speech, Elizabeth Warren has improved her popularity and overtaken Scott Brown head-to-head,” said David Paleologos, director of the Suffolk University Political Research Center in Boston. “She enters the debate phase of the Senate campaign as the slight favorite, but the race is still fluid, and to win she must avoid peaking too soon.”

Absolutely, the race is still fluid.  As everyone here keeps saying, this is motivation to do more and work harder, not to sit back.  We’re still several weeks out.

Here are some more important results, from the Suffolk release:

Brown’s net favorability was +31 compared to +30 in May, virtually unchanged. Warren’s jumped from +10 in May (43 percent favorable to 33 percent unfavorable) to +19 today (52 percent favorable to 33 percent unfavorable).

Brown’s cross-over support also is waning. In May, 24 percent of Obama voters said they would cross parties to vote for Brown, but today 19 percent said they would cross over.

That, too, is entirely consistent with the other polls: Warren’s net favorability has increased over the last several weeks, while Brown is stable, and the number of Democrats who support Brown is shrinking.

So, yeah, good news.  The first televised debate is Thursday evening on WBZ – be sure to watch.  The debates will likely be important in this race.

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17 Comments . Leave a comment below.
  1. 60% disapprove of Mitt

    Mitt’s favorables were 32-60.

    In Massachusetts, 47% is a gross understatement.

  2. The Field Efforts deserve Credit

    With so many people knocking on so many doors, it is not surprising to see movement in the polls. The field efforts deserve credit.

    We need to careful about the pollster roller coaster, however. We need to always act as if we are five points behind.

    More people are needed to knock on doors and do the phone banks. More bumper stickers are needed on cars. More lawn signs are needed.

    We can win this election. Keep the faith.

    • I second the motion

      I was out in Reading on Sunday, a bell-weather town. I knocked on 30 doors with many NH(not home). The tally 5 Elizabeth 3 Brown 8 undecided. These were among those who had on/off voting records and un-enrolled. It is tiring, sometimes frustrating work. Take a buddy and do it together. Collectively we knocked on 200 doors for out little group. So get over any stage fright. Keep your eye on the prize: the fate of this great country of ours, roll up your sleeves and grab clip boards, a phone, a yard sign, and let’s get Elizabeth Warren elected. Without doubt it is the right thing to do given Mitt Romney’s view of people down on their luck or who were not paid enough in their working lifetime to have a decent, healthy retirement. My Mom died at age 99 in a nursing home and relied on Medicaid, Medicare, and Social Security to be taken care of. My youngest daughter has severe disabilities but is able to be on her own because of HUD subsidized housing, community support, Medicare, Medicaid, and food stamps. I understand what my taxes pay for, mainly expenses that can not be handled individually so Government plays a critical role. It is not a handout but derives from the understanding that a Social Contract means individualism depends on your fellow citizens. You can not express your individual talent without an education, decent health care, proper housing, and a living wage.

      • Thank You!

        You are right about how import knocking on doors and talking to your friends, neighbors, co-workers is to electing Elizabeth. Keep it up!

        This is how we will win. Thank you.

    • Have to say though

      I find it more fun to be fighting 4 points up but within the margin of error, knowing that hard work might push the lead beyond the margin of error while slacking off could see that lead evaporate, than pretending to be behind :)

      • Beware the Polling Roller Coaster

        There will be lots of polls over the next seven weeks. While we currently have momentum, lots of things can change. Inevitably, there will be some future polls that show Brown ahead. When those polls appear, we can’t panic. If we stay focused, if we continue our field efforts, and if we continue our fundraising, we will win.

        • Agree

          Polls this early are not predictive, and I do need to keep reminding myself of that. And yes, it’s likely this race will have downs as well as ups, poll number wise.

  3. Bring on the debates!!

    They come with good timing. I expect a good shellacking, if only because Warren is a super smart cookie, and Brown is, underneath it all, an empty suit who doesn’t understand the bills he supports, even when pointed out to him multiple times.

    Nail him, Liz!

  4. Yippee!! Great news!!

    So, where are the debate watch parties?

  5. Cue the 'fake indian' attack in 3... 2... 1...

    Brown’s support team, including the Globe, won’t let this polling stay the story for long.

    • David was on Emily Rooney's show yesterday...

      …where the representative of the other side brought up how EW “lied for personal gain”. To his credit, he defended EW against the attack, but I wish he had also mentioned SB and his claim to be the great-grandson of Arthur Prentice Rugg back in the 80′s.

    • I can completely relate to how Elizabeth Warren believed she was part

      Native American. In my family, my aunt told us the we were part Native American. She said she had done some research on it but didn’t have any documentation. So I thought that was really cool and would list Native American as part of my heritage, albeit just a little bit, whenever anyone asked. Since this whole brouhaha was blasted at Elizabeth Warren about it, I will NEVER mention those words again. Most especially because of the apparent outrage from the Native American community, which rather offended me actually. Well, excuuuse meeeeeeee.

  6. This is fantastic new!

    Hopefully the next ones go even higher. I live in Brown territory and I’m doing what I can. You have to be very gentle about it in these parts. I hope she visits more towns and I have a feeling she is going to do great in the debates.
    Scott Brown is starting to sound desperate. We received a 2 page flyer from the Brown campaign the other day (addressed to me, a registered Democrat) and it says in part: ” I’ll work with anyone to move our country forward.” My first thought was that it sounds like he doesn’t have a core set of values. It’s too broad and too scary. So does that mean he would work with someone trying to sell him the Brooklyn Bridge? Scary stuff for sure. We need common sense in government. Elizabeth Warren is clearly the best choice. Massachusetts needs to elect her and send her sound and thoughtful reasoning to Washington.

  7. Some interesting data points in there

    This poll shows a much smaller gender gap than PPP, with Warren up 14 points among women and trailing 8 points with men. Her favorability rating with male voters was still a solid +12 (48-36). 9% of women were undecided vs. only 6% of men in this survey.

    Gender is probably the breakdown I trust most, given the large sample sizes. Not sure about margins of error in other demographic slices, but for what they’re worth, some other breakdowns:

    Warren led in every age group, with a very strong 50-42 showing among voters 65+.

    Scott Brown has a 4-point lead among white voters; Warren has a 48-point lead among minority voters. He continues to poll very strongly with independents, and picked up 13% of Democrats while she garnered 7% of Republicans.

    This poll included 5% of people who self-identified as somewhat likely to vote in November, with the other 95% being very likely voters. I don’t think it’s a coincidence that this poll with a few somewhat likely voters showed Elizabeth Warren with a 4 point lead while the Republican-leaning poll that tossed out all somewhat likely voters showed the race within 1. I realize both are within margin of error, but I still believe the data supports what’s been said at the outset: ground game and getting out the vote will be critical, especially among registered Democrats, women and minorities.

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Thu 27 Apr 6:56 AM