Suffolk University has just released its latest poll on the Senate race, and it confirms the results released yesterday by Public Policy Polling and Western New England: there has been a marked swing toward Elizabeth Warren in the Senate race, and she is now in the lead. From Suffolk’s press release:
Democratic challenger Elizabeth Warren (48 percent) has overtaken incumbent Republican Scott Brown (44 percent), in a Senate squeaker that still falls within the margin of error, according to a Suffolk University/7NEWS (WHDH-Boston) poll of likely general election voters in Massachusetts. Eight percent of those polled were undecided or chose someone else.
These results contrast with a Suffolk University/7NEWS poll conducted in May, when Brown led Warren 48 percent to 47 percent, with 5 percent either undecided or choosing someone else.
“Fresh off a new TV ad buy and a prime time convention speech, Elizabeth Warren has improved her popularity and overtaken Scott Brown head-to-head,” said David Paleologos, director of the Suffolk University Political Research Center in Boston. “She enters the debate phase of the Senate campaign as the slight favorite, but the race is still fluid, and to win she must avoid peaking too soon.”
Absolutely, the race is still fluid. As everyone here keeps saying, this is motivation to do more and work harder, not to sit back. We’re still several weeks out.
Here are some more important results, from the Suffolk release:
Brown’s net favorability was +31 compared to +30 in May, virtually unchanged. Warren’s jumped from +10 in May (43 percent favorable to 33 percent unfavorable) to +19 today (52 percent favorable to 33 percent unfavorable).
Brown’s cross-over support also is waning. In May, 24 percent of Obama voters said they would cross parties to vote for Brown, but today 19 percent said they would cross over.
That, too, is entirely consistent with the other polls: Warren’s net favorability has increased over the last several weeks, while Brown is stable, and the number of Democrats who support Brown is shrinking.
So, yeah, good news. The first televised debate is Thursday evening on WBZ – be sure to watch. The debates will likely be important in this race.