Saying that Florida was beyond hope for Obama, Suffolk is pulling out of polling Florida and other key battleground states.
Suffolk University pollster David Paleologos, whose polls are aggregated into mainstream averages to show where the presidential race stands in the swing states, said he’s finished polling in Florida, North Carolina and Virginia because President Obama has no shot of winning those states.
“I think in places like North Carolina, Virginia and Florida, we’ve already painted those red, we’re not polling any of those states again,” Paleologos said Tuesday night on Fox’s “The O’Reilly Factor.” “We’re focusing on the remaining states.”
They’re doing this because… debate.
“That’s right, and here’s why. Before the debate, the Suffolk poll had Obama ahead 46 to 43 [in Florida] in the head-to-head number,” Paleologos responded.
Apparently, that one debate performance negates all the decades behind the science of polls and stuff.
Not a day later, NBC/Marist comes out with a new poll, showing Obama up 1. Meanwhile, Nate Silver‘s current polling average (as of 10/11*) gives Obama a +1.8% chance, the adjusted rating (giving added importance to more recent polls) has a .3% edge for Romney, both numbers highly indicative of why Silver’s rated Florida as a “tossup.”
Yet, Paleologos is pulling out of it, and other battlegrounds that are as close as or closer than Florida, because he’s “painted them red” and the Republicans have them ‘in the bag.’
He actually went on national tv to tell all this** to Bill O’Reilly.
It seems Paleo<s>rof</s>logos should do a little less punditry and do a little more decision making based on what the polls are actually telling him. Romney’s certainly got a bounce going on, but ignoring a state as heavily divided and close as Florida is for national elections — including this national election — is either batshit crazy, mindless conservative pandering, wishful thinking or all of the above.
Either way, Mr. Paleologos, good job pissing Suffolk polling’s credibility goodbye.
*Note on Nate Silver link: the polling averages are displayed on the side; there’s no way to link to the daily rating, so if you read this after 10/11 or even later in the day, if more poll results come out, the percentages could change.
**I have no compunction in failing to embed a youtube video to Fox News, no need to give O’Reilly extra hits, but there’s the clip if you really want to listen.
fenway49 says
He claims Obama, as the incumbent, “can’t win” those states because even before the debate he was only at 47% or so. This theory supposes virtually all the undecided will break for the challenger, a notion debunked in 2004 when Bush couldn’t break 47% in Ohio or Florida in early October polling.
Virtually every other pollster who’s been asked has said the Suffolk guy made an ass of himself. If he doesn’t have the funding or clients to poll those states, fine. But making pronouncements like this on cable is really stupid. My fondest hope is that Biden cleans Paul Ryan’s clock, the President is on fire in the next two debates, and Obama takes at least one, and maybe even all three, of those states.
With any luck this pronouncement from Suffolk will galvanize Democratic volunteers and GOTV people there.
WhiskeyRebellion says
And O’Reilly is one of the ringmasters. Why even give them credibility by taking them seriously. If Paleologos used that forum to announce his pullout, that should speak volumes about his bias. IMO, it’s probably a Rove initiated tactic to make Dems give up hope in these states.
goldsteingonewild says
I agree. Mathematically Suffolk is cra-cra. I don’t understand the motivation…just to get on Fox?
If Obama wins FL it’s an obvious stain on Suffolk’s cred…why risk your brand like that?
David says
if Obama wins both FL and VA, which remains a distinct possibility. Heck, if Obama undoes the first debate’s damage with strong performances in the next two, even NC is not totally out of the question – pre-debate polling showed NC tied or with one of the candidates up a point or two, and polling can’t really account very well for what everyone seems to think is Obama’s superior ground game.
I just don’t understand what Paleologos thought he was doing.
Ryan says
His poll numbers on Nate Silver for Virginia were even better than Florida. I emphasized Florida in this diary simply because it’s always so historically close and electorally significant.
The key thing is the last Suffolk poll results released for these states showed Obama up. That’s how insane Paleologis is with this decision. I have to think he simply didn’t have the funding/partner to do polling in these states and decided to try to get his 15 minutes in declaring a faux reason for why he wasn’t going to poll them.
Let’s hope this causes him to lose the funding necessary to poll elsewhere.
David says
by Paleologos that, as far as I know, no other reputable pollster or commentator has endorsed. Interestingly, despite Suffolk’s generally excellent track record in MA over the last couple of cycles, it has not done especially well in other states, and Paleologos’s comments reinforce the sense that he should perhaps stick to his home territory.
Trickle up says
(e.g., let’s stick to our knitting in the Bay State) being pimped as a bold political judgment.
Either way, not so hot for the Suffolk “brand.”
fenway49 says
if everyone thinks, at worst, you’re a shill for a party with only 13% of your home turf, and at best, that you have a habit of running your mouth in ill-advised ways.
Their job is to measure the electorate’s preferences through scientifically sound polling, not to make bold political judgments. Certainly not so hot for the Suffolk “brand.”
Christopher says
…FL, NC, and VA? By what standard? Fivethirtyeight and electoral-vote.com both give Obama the edge in VA, Romney the polling edge in NC, though the former gives Romney an 82% chance of winning which the poll numbers and predicted vote share don’t seem to justify. The former gives the FL edge to Romney and the latter gives it to Obama. I don’t see any slam dunks among these three states.
hlpeary says
While BMG prognosticators diss Paleologus’ decision to stop polling in FL, VA and NC because he believes they are now in red column, be mindful that the horse race question is the LEAST helpful in accurately predicting the final outcome…as it is a brief snapshot in time…the telltale info is hidden in the crosstabs, a combination of several crosstabs and voter history, that I am sure David P. has studied carefully…if he is concluding that FL, VA and NC are gone, I am concerned…instead of disparaging his credibility, perhaps BMG should invite DP to tell us what he saw in the tabs that brought him to his discouraging conclusion…
fenway49 says
but if this is true, why does every other pollster think he’s crazy to say what he said?
Ryan says
Nate Silver is one of the best in the biz at coming up with models to predict things, and he gives Romney a 54 to 46% chance of winning Florida, because of more recent polls and their money advantage, etc.
That reflects an honest shift in the momentum, but *not* a state that’s so beyond the reasonable reach of Obama in the election that it should be given up by pollsters.
It’s still very much a tossup at that level, and that’s what almost every other expert in the profession is saying.
Moreover, Paleologis is also pulling out of Virginia, ‘painting it red,’ despite the fact that Silver is projecting Obama to still win it by a small margin, Obama’s chances of victory at 53 to 47%.
Does that seem like a state that an honest pollster would pull out of because it was “painted red?”
I. don’t. think. so.
This was a hack job by Paleologis, pure and simple. The only question is why.
hlpeary says
OCT 11, MIAMI HERALD, CAMPAIGN 2012 / POLL
Strong debate helps Mitt Romney move ahead of President Obama by 7 points among Florida voters
Read more here: http://www.miamiherald.com/2012/10/11/3045712/poll-strong-debate-helps-mitt.html#storylink=cpy
Ryan says
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2012/10/11/1142917/-Daily-Kos-Elections-Polling-Wrap-Welcome-back-to-the-national-state-polling-divide-yes-again
goldsteingonewild says
you’re always a reasonable commenter.
i’d be fascinated to hear DP explain his view.
but isn’t this unprecedented? states being polled by 8 or 9 outfits, all show tight race, and one guy says not only is everyone else wrong, but they’re so far wrong polling must cease.
i’d suggest instead —
a. per above, no one paying him, might as well stop, get on TV, hope he’s right.
b. possibly – try to build a brand to compete with rassmussen.
hlpeary says
but, every pollster I have ever known (excepting those paid by and working for the specific candidate) really does not care about who wins or loses…they care about how accurate their results are because that is their reputation and financial future on the line…this election is already over for most voters, they have made their decision and will stick to it…so those undecideds/independents are where the action is and the crosstabs in the polls give a glimpse into where they are leaning and trending and answers to other telling questions give a pollster an idea of where they will ultimately end up (country going in right direction or wrong direction? some specific issue concerns, etc)…Once the last debate has taken place, I think the di will be cast for most voters, but that debate is on foreign policy and the voters are more focused on economic future (national and personal)…I think this year’s polls are so volatile because the majority of people say the country is heading in the wrong direction but neither candidate has given them confidence that things will get better if they vote for them. I think FL and NC will go red, but I still have hope that we can hold onto OH and VA.
Ryan says
Rassmussen.
They are more than willing to put out any kind of BS, especially these days. So, there’s plenty of market for pollsters that release poll results that the client wants.
hlpeary says
n/t
fenway49 says
I’m not sure, based on this unprecedented step, what kind of pollster Paleologus is. But three states that Obama was leading until recently and is still, according to other polls, highly competitive in? And they’re completely beyond the realm of possibility? That sounds wrong to me.
Ryan says
Everyone always knew they were partisan, but they used to put out polls that were nonetheless good.
That started to change a few years ago, and now they’re pretty blatant about putting out stuff that’s a little more favorable for Republicans (and a lot more favorable early on in the cycle, to try to put out a crappy poll in hopes of making the terrible numbers come true).
mike_cote says
Considering the brilliant work that Nate Silver is doing, not only in doing his “fantisy baseball” calculations on the various polls, but also showing that some poles are just utter crep or biased as all get out. They are closing up shop so that they do not become the new poster boy of garbage polling aka Rassmussen.
hlpeary says
Mike, Please check out your own guy Nate Silver…he does a great job explaining how the polls work and what’s what…AND why FL and NC especially are probably already red and VA is trending away…it’s excellent material..would be instructive for everyone to read.
http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/10/12/oct-12-romney-debate-gains-show-staying-power/