The Washington Post has changed its rating of our little Senate race. For months this race has been a tossup on just about everyone’s scorecard. But the momentum Elizabeth Warren has in recent polls is undeniable, and it’s causing observers to rethink.
Warren has opened up a slight and consistent lead over Sen. Scott Brown (R), recent polling shows. The Real Clear Politics average of Bay State polling shows Warren leading Brown by almost five points after the two candidates were running about even for much of the summer….
Brown and Warren have debated three times and the Democrat has appeared to grow stronger with each outing. She’s effectively batted back attacks – both in the debates and over the airwaves – against her claim to Native American heritage, and she’s been linking Brown to the national GOP with more frequency. Through it all, Warren has set a remarkable fundraising pace.
A big key to Brown’s political success is his image. He’s run multiple ads portraying himself as an every-man. His pickup truck, which was a staple of his 2010 special election victory, is back on display once again. Brown’s wife has even vouched for his credentials as a father and husband in commercials. And the senator regularly underscores his local roots on the campaign trail.
But the latest WBUR survey (which shows Warren holding a slight lead) reveals that Brown’s favorability edge has disappeared. His fav/unfav split (49/38) is about the same as Warren’s (49/39) in the survey, whereas in the previous poll, the Republican’s split (54/41) looked better than the Democrat’s (47/38)….
2012 isn’t 2010. He’s run up against superior competition and a less favorable macro-environment. Those factors could be enough to send him packing.
Now, get back to work. :-)