Elizabeth Warren is up 50% to 45% in a new poll conducted by the Western New England University Polling Institute in partnership with the Springfield Republican/MassLive.com.
Here’s your key quote, from political strategist Anthony Cignoli:
“If she continues to keep this lead over Brown, despite her unfavorability numbers having gone up, she is on a path to victory. If three weeks from now she has the same results as over the three weeks since the last WNE poll, Brown will have little time to move that distance before the election.”
That and making sure to get out the vote next month.
I haven’t seen all the details yet, but here are the points they’re calling out:
* She leads among women by 26 points and trails among men by 18 points.
* Warren has the support of 85% of Democratic voters while Brown takes 98% of Republicans. Nudging a few more of those Democrats to come back to the party instead of voting for the guy who most admires Justice Scalia will really help.
* Brown is up 1 percentage point vs their Sept 6-13 poll. I’m assuming that’s well within margin of error.
* Warren is leading handily in the Boston metro/area and western Mass; she holds a 3 percentage point lead in the North & South shores. The only geographic area of the state where Brown is leading is central Mass, but he’s crushing there. Again, don’t know margin of error for these geographic slices.
* “Both candidates saw their positive ratings drop slightly and their negative ratings climb.”
The main story doesn’t say so, but other stories say this is a poll of likely voters conducted Sept. 28 to Oct. 4. So some people were questioned before the second debate.