Big difference for my prediction in 2014: whatever is going to happen with the future of Twitter (and, to a lesser extent, Facebook) will be playing out in 2014. By 2016, we’ll know how the marbles rolled but in 2014 this will be contested turf. Memory size will increase by a factor of 2.5, internet will be marginally more ubiquitous and a little faster.

One point I want to be clear on: new media and tech will matter as much in downballot races — sherif or Governor’s Council or State Rep — as they do in presidential and senatorial races.

FInally, David is not wrong in saying that the big difference could be that everyone will have access to BMG all the time. Reinforcing community — those bonds of affection and mystic chords of memory — is at the center of the thing.

What have I got wrong?/blockquote>

1) 2014… focusing strictly on 2016 will certainly miss whatever is innovated and/or road-test in/for 2014.

B) People. The big win for Obama was to treat the tech as secondary to the technicians. Team RMoney seems to have thought of both the tech and the technicians as just another commodity you can purchase.

In many ways the greatest strengths of the open source software movement is also its greatest weakness… nobody improves anything, but rather they discard and recreate something else in its place. That’s why there are fifty seven different linux distros, none of them better than severely flawed, ’cause everytime somebody has a gripe about a particular distro, instead of fixing it they just go out and make a whole new distro. Strength and weakness. However, in the limited time frame of a campaign, this is wholly, wholly a strength: and that’s pretty much the model that the Obama ’12 campaign used: sudden, robust and disposable…. and the secret to that isn’t the tech but in the technicians.

The personal media landscape, today dominated by Facebook and Twitter, will continue to change rapidly. We’ll continue to use something like these, but the features, technologies, business models, and companies may all change.

Yes and no. Remember Real.com and the RealPlayer?? Yeah, me neither. Apparently they are still around but I can’t remember the last time I was faced with the choice of downloading their bloated software or not watching something of interest. Used to be that’s the only way you could watch C-Span online. And anything I get in my email that is in Word format is trashed without a glance. One of my biggest complaints from 2000 to 2008 was the inability to get a lot of the media in a usable format… but nowadays people send the link to youtube and you’ve already got a browser set up for that. And most text attachments are PDF.

Another thing is that high capacity USB sticks are ridiculously cheap and a 2G thumb drive can be stuffed with political advertising like policy papers in PDF, videos, etc… and just given away It’s funny, but you never hear the Internet referred to as the “information superhighway” anymore. But, honestly, we’re rapidly approaching a context where low information must be a conscious choice…

Web advertising will continue to decline in effectiveness, but will remain common.

Web advertising fails because web advertisers have done nothing more than to attempt to bolt the broadcast TV model of advertising unto the web. Political advertising fails because it’s actually morphed into a tool of DIS-information: making use of the limited scope of the broadcast model to attack in 30 second jagged screeds and low-information fear-mongering. I recall in Ohio in 2004, the Kerry campaign was using video iPods in door to door campaigning to show high-information videos … and then to discuss same with prospective voters… but I’ve not heard of that continuing. Maybe because Kerry lost Ohio and campaigns don’t have the introspective nature to separate out the good from the bad, only devolving into a binary success or fail… But there’s no reason that can’t be replicate with iPads.