Movin’ On Up…

Speculate away! - promoted by david

Taking off from today’s Globe articles, this seems like as good a time and place as any to get some more perspective about the Democratic Party’s “bench” for possible openings in 2013 and 2014.

I’ll throw out some names. Apologies for the Boston focus. Curious to hear others I haven’t thought of/heard about.

For Senate:

Representative Edward Markey

Globe claims eyeing his seat: State Senators Katherine Clark, Will Brownsberger, and Karen Spilka; and Representative David Linksy.

Globe Forgot: CARL SCIORTINO! For god’s sake, getting Markey elected for a chance at Congressman Sciortino would be heavenly.

Representative Stephen Lynch

Globe claims eyeing his seat: State Senators Marty Walsh and John Keenan, and half of the Boston City Council.

Globe Forgot: Poor Jack Hart. Suddenly Marty Walsh is magically promoted to senator and Hart is nowhere to be found. Half the Boston City Council seems a little silly here. This is clearly a heavily-southie seat, and stick a fork in my eye, Linehan would probably have the upper hand. Would Mac D’Allessandro come back? Suzanne Lee for Congress? Felix Arroyo? Another roll-your-eyes candidate: Mike Rush.

Representative Mike Capuano

Globe claims eyeing his seat: Mayor Joe Curtatone of Somerville and the other half of the Boston City Council

Globe Forgot: Sonia Chang Diaz for sure. Ayanna Pressley would be a very strong candidate in a seat that now includes Milton and Randolph.

Lieutenant Governor TIm Murray

Globe claims eyeing his seat: 2012 DNC chief Steve Kerrigan and his fellow former Edward Kennedy aide, Gerry Cavanaugh; state Representative Hank Naughton; and Mayor Kim Driscoll of Salem.

Globe Forgot: Well, probably not half the Boston City Council, but parts of it. Surely Connolly has his eye over here. Felix Arroyo would actually be a strong candidate for LG. Why is Curtatone listed as interested in Governor? Tim Murray was Mayor of Worcester and moved up to LG. Why is the Mayor of Somerville jumping to Gov? This might be a more logical path. Andrea Cabral, if she hadn’t taken the EOPS job. Setti Warren probably can’t run since he’s repromised Newton not to. Ben Downing has spent the last month getting his name out there. Why not for this? Katherine Clark.

Treasurer Steve Grossman

Globe claims eyeing his seat:  State auditor Suzanne Bump, Mayor Lisa Wong of Fitchburg, Mayor Thatcher Kezer of Amesbury, and Katherine Clark.

Globe Forgot: Would Steve Murphy take another shot at this? Mike Ross? When does Jamie Eldridge’s name get into the conversation anyway? (Probably not for this job, but I’d quit my job and join that campaign if he did!)

Mayor Kim Driscoll of Salem

Mayor Joe Curtatone of Somerville

Globe Forgot: Somerville Mayor Rebekka Gewirtz. Has a nice ring to it.

Other possible candidates for Governor

Don Berwick is an interesting name. Dan Wolf seems like a longshot, but Bernstein threw his name out a couple months back. Carmen Ortiz is clearly looking at this, despite her denials. She probably needs to prosecute a few more low-level pols first, to build her cred. She can’t aim too high though… wings might get singed.

Oh, and that AG woman… what’s her name? Oh right, Martha something. Please, how do you even write an article about possible candidates for governor and leave her off, whatever you might think of her?

Who Else?



Discuss

36 Comments . Leave a comment below.
  1. I hope (and I trust)

    the Emerge Massachusetts team is supporting these women leaders and encouraging them to run. Our state took a nice big step forward sending Elizabeth to Washington, but we need a lot more women running and winning elections. Suzanne and Sonia together in Congress would be several kinds of great. Ayanna leaving the Council is probably a change we can’t afford right now. Would love to see former State Senator Cheryl Jacques back on the scene too.

    • Senate president

      Senator Spilka! Can you imagine a smart, progressive leader with common sense, and a huge heart as the leader of the state senate!

    • Ayanna & Jacques...

      Asking someone like Ayanna to not move up to Congress because we can’t afford to lose a woman on the Council strikes me as an odd stand. Maybe we just need to work a little harder to get Suzanne on there.

      Jacques is a fun name from the past, but her press clippings haven’t been too great of late. I refuse to link to them because I think they are bogus. The best part of a Jacques candidacy would be seeing Howie Carr’s head explode if she won.

      • Michelle Wu

        i Michelle Wu is a bright young star on the horizon. She’s running for the City Council at large and would be another asset to them. At least then if Ayanna moved up, there would still be another woman. And Suzanne Lee will run again from District 2. They all should be encouraged.

  2. Falling open race dominoes is my favorite part of politics.

    First a ntipick: Under Capuano you say the Globe has “the other half of Boston City Council” interested, but then list Ayanna Pressley as someone they forgot. She is, of course, a Boston City Councilor so I would assume be included in the list above.

    Any current elected official in your lists would of course leave their own open seats to fill, most prominently State Auditor Suzanne Bump if she seeks the Treasury. I even heard one rumor that Galvin was interested in that office. From a junkie standpoint having all six constitutional offices open at once would be a thrill. I asked Michael Dukakis a few months ago if that had ever happened and he said no.

    Middlesex DA Gerry Leone has announced that he will not seek re-election leaving a significant county office open. Lowell blogger and Register of Deeds Richard Howe discusses some possible successors here.

    Let the games begin!

    • Re: Top speculation then DA

      Lets assume Lynch and Capuano aren’t going to run, or if they run they won’t win, so not all three of their seats will be up. Perhaps if one of them does really poorly and exerts all their cash on the Senate race they might be significantly wounded for the general, but its just one vacancy folks.

      As for the replacements, I am certain Brownsberger won’t run for a Congressional seat. Maybe Sciortino. Surprised Garbelley was left out.

      As for DA I think Sullivan stays put but he has coveted that job. DA is a lateral move so Koutijian stays out, bides his time for Markey or Caps seat or an AG run down the line. Murphy and Donahughe are interesting choices, Barrios shouldnt be cut off the list. Also like Leone, Coakley, Reilly, and Harshbarger before its gonna be an insider in the ADAs office.

      There could be lots of statewide vacancies. Coakley, Murray, and Grossman are all gonna go for it. Auditor or SoC to Treasurer is a lateral move, doubtful those incumbents give up safe seats-especially the Prince of Darkness.

      • Coakley won't go...

        She has rehabbed her image and elevated her favorables again as AG (although some think an overly cautious and timid one)…but, she is not a dynamic administrator or visionary thinker, she is reactive…most DA’s and AGs are comfortable in the law and order lane sticking to the letter of the law…staying in the lines…that’s where she is comfortable and competent…to run for Gov. would expose her to the same problems she faced running for Senate: she is a good prosecutor, not a political leader with a broad view of issues.

    • fair nitpick

      Ayanna is in the Council. My only poorly-phrased point was she clearly has a major advantage in a race for the Cap seat over other other councilors.

      Not buying Galvin. Why would have move from the highly powerful SecState job? There are probably a lot of election reform-oriented progressives who would gladly help him move to the auditor’s position if he really wanted it.

    • Capuano's Seat

      Simply because one might WANT Pressley to move up does not mean that the new Congressional district is as favorable to a minority Bostonian progressive as it was before redistricting. The 7th now includes all of Everett as well as Milton and Randolph. It has lost many of of the uber-progressive wards in Cambridge as well as some of JP.

      The new 7th, while more majority-minority is now decidedly LESS Boston-centric and slightly less liberal (viewing in the aggregate the added and lost parts of the district).

      Take the following presumed candidates from Boston: Councilors Pressley, Arroyo and Ross; Sen. Chang-Diaz, Reps. Moran and Dorcena-Forry. This leads to a free-for-all of these candidates who will likely cut into each others’ bases in both Boston and throughout the district.

      The non-Boston pols I’ve heard considered are: Mayor Joe Curtatone, who’s gotten on the wrong side of Everett already (“over my dead body will Ilet a casino into Everett”); Chelsea Manager Jay Ash, and Sens. Jehlen and DiDomenico.

      I’ve also heard several non-elected people would run: Chris Gabrieli (who ran in 1998 and can self-finance), Capuano’s son or wife (who have the name recognition and Capuano’s lists and organization).

      A field this broad lends me to believe that the race is more likely won by someone OUTSIDE of Boston, unless the field is cleared. A special election to fill this seat in 2013 means also that the municipal officials would need to choose between their own seats or Congress in an odd-year election, further opening up the possibility of a stae elected or a non-elected.

      • Interesting take...

        …I’d like to see the numbers to back up your thoughts on the new 7th. My sense is actually that it’s more friendly to a Boston candidate of color than the former 8th was. The new 7th traded some JP precincts for other JP precincts. I don’t know what it lost in Cambridge. Gaining very progressive and community of color-oriented Randolph and MIlton would seem to more than outweigh additions of Everett. But again, just going off instinct. Curious about numbers.

        • No actual numbers on demographics, but ...

          A map.

          Specifically to the Cambridge section, the new 7th leaves East Cambridge (who has re-elected Rep. Tim Toomey repeatedly), Cambridgeport and North/West Cambridge (which leans left, but certainly not like its Harvard Square/Fresh Pond neighbors).

          As for the rest of the district , based on numbers from the Warren/Brown Senate race, Randolph went for EW with 70%-30% with approx. 14,000 ballots cast. This is less than half of the votes cast in Somerville (about 35,000), approximately the same as in Everett, and I can’t do a breakdown by ward/precinct in Cambridge and Boston.

          As for Milton, I also don’t know how many votes were cast in that swath of the new district.

          I will suggest, however, neighborhoods in Boston most heavily populated by people of color also tend to be the neighborhoods with the lowest voter turnout on the average election.

          So while any candidate could win, I don’t think it’s as cut-and-dry for a Boston candidate of color than some might think – especially if multiple candidates who fit that description run (Pressley, Arroyo, Chang-Diaz).

          In fact, based on the numbers alone as referenced above, unless Boston can clear the field for one or two strong candidates in a primary, the largest number of votes in any city are by far in Somerville. So … thoughts on Joe Curtatone? On Denise Provost? On Capuano’s son or wife? Having met all of them, I am impressed by all of them and would happily vote for any of them. They all have progressive values, smart, and if they can use Capuano’s organization, would be a stronger candidate than a split Boston field.

            • Good insights

              I think it’s worth remembering, though, that back in 1998 Capuano won that primary with just 23% of the vote, dominating Somerville, and getting top 3 everywhere else, with a multitude of Boston candidates cancelling each other out. If Ross, Arroyo, Chang Diaz and Pressley all run then it changes the dynamic substantially. If just one of them runs with the support of the rest, I think they are a shoe-in. Definitely it’s a fair point that the dynamics of a special election would change this equation substantially, but it doesn’t appear that Capuano is running for Senate. If Capuano runs for Governor in 2014 then no city councilor or mayor has to give up their job to run for his seat, while Chang Diaz and Provost would have to. The timing around the Governor’s race also increase the odds of high turnout in communities of color, especially if there is a candidate that appeals in those neighborhoods.

              I don’t know Joe Capuano all that well, but I would guess that since he’s not a Kennedy, people might like him to run for something lesser at first and move up later. Provost is a good person and a good legislator, but I’m not sure has the chops for that whole district. Curtatone would be a strong candidate for sure.

              • My thoughts on the other races

                All very good points. If Boston cleared the field, they would win in a romp. However, that seems unlikely.

                Interesting that you bring up Joe Capuano for the seat; it was actually Mike Jr. who I was thinking about – he’s older and a lawyer. I’ve met Joe at several events for his dad and Gov. Patrick and think either would be a fine elected official in some capacity. I agree that Provost is a good state legislator, but not much more. And in my other comment above, I think Curtatone has hurt himself in Everett, but could get a coalition together to win depending on the field.

                Nonetheless, it looks likely that Capuano is not running for Senate and is probably holding off for Governor. Imagine having a Grossman-Murray-Capuano-Curtatone primary?

                On the other races you mention:

                Markey seat: Sciortino or Clark could certainly put up an excellent fight for the Congressional seat.

                Lynch seat: If Capuano doesn’t run for Senate, Lynch has a terrible chance to beat Markey in a primary, even if he might be a better candidate to face Brown in the general. Why would he run a quixotic campaign in a progressive primary when he knows he can’t win? But let’s say he does … as much as progressives loved Mac D’Allessandro, he got whomped last time. Why would that change in a similar district?

                LG: Would be a great big start for Ben Downing, a great stepping stone for Lisa Wong or Kim Driscoll, and a booby prize for Joe Curtatone.

                SecState – Galvin isn’t going anywhere.

                AG – Coakley isn’t going anywhere, nor should she. She’s too good at her job and can have it forever (see: lack of opposition in 2010).

                Treasurer – Why is Mike Lake’s name nowhere on this post?

                Auditor – Why would Bump ever move; she barely won last time.

                Curtatone’s seat: See all the scenarios above. If Capuano runs for Governor, would Curtatone run for Congress? Could he even win? It’s the local rumor that Mike Capuano Jr. is looking at this seat.

                Kim Driscoll’s seat: I simply don’t know Salem local politics to fathom a guess, but I’d love to see her as LG.

  3. Markey's US Representative seat

    Now this is a list to get excited about….so good I could maybe even work for Markey for US Senate (though he still feels like a “white bread” candidate.)

    State Senators Will Brownsberger (doubt it since he just stepped up to state Senate), and Karen Spilka; Representatives Carl Sciortino and Denise Provost.

    Let me hijack your sentence, For god’s sake, getting Markey elected for a chance at Congresswoman Spilka, Provost or Congressman Sciortino would be heavenly.

    • Provost isn't in the District

      Denise Provost lives in and only represents Somerville, which is not in Markey’s district. Both Karen Spilka and Carl Sciortino are very serious about winning this race should it occur.

      Remember half of Cambridge is now in the district as well. Do you think anyone from Cambridge will jump in the race?

  4. Sciortino-mentum

    Feelin’ it. A guy who feels public transportation … who I used to run into on the bus, for cryin’ eye.

    Carl. Yes indeedy, that would be good. In Washington?? Jeez. That’s like fiction.

    Brownsberger is also terrific. Oozes integrity. Smart. Green as all hell. Would be a credit to MA. Also too good for DC. :)

    Don’t know Spilka.

    • Karen Spilka, Katherine Clark, Will Brownsberger and more

      Smart, progressive, gutsy. Was a school committee member from Ashland and a state rep, moved up to the State Senate in 2005. District includes Ashland, Framingham, Ashland, Holliston, Hopkinton, Medway, and parts of Franklin, Natick, and Medway. (Natick, Framingham, Ashland, and Holliston are in the Fifth CD).

      Katherine Clark has a similar career path, moving up from the school committee to the legislature, winning her senate seat in 2011. Her district includes Malden, Melrose, Stoneham, and part of Winchester (in the Fifth CD) as well as Reading, and Wakefield.

      Will Brownsberger moved from the Board of Selectmen to the legislature. His rep district was Belmont, and parts of Arlington and Cambridge. He was elected to the senate in a special election last year, in a district that included Belmont, a part of Cambridge, and a part of Watertown.

      I think the talk of state legislators can’t stop with senators. Jay Kaufman has been in the legislature since 1995, in a Lexington based district. The district now includes all of Lexington and two wards in Woburn, but the district has also included Lincoln and parts of Waltham and Arlington. If I am looking at a political base (assuming that Brownsberger doesn’t run), I think Kaufman starts with a stronger geographic base than any other potential candidate in a Democratic primary.

      • Brownsberger's district

        Right after he won his special election, Brownsberger’s district was changed to include more of Boston (added Back Bay and Fenway to formerly just Brighton) and all Cambridge precincts were removed. He still has all of Watertown and Belmont (where he’s legendary for his accessibility and integrity) and Cambridge/Arlington folks whom he represented in the House probably remember him well, but a good chunk of his current district is outside Markey’s CD.

      • All Senators

        You know … who’s up next for Senate prez after Terry Murray has to step down? Any of our progressive champs listed above? Jamie Eldridge?

        Bernstein’s got a discussion here … He seems to rule out just about everyone. :D

  5. Some good names thrown around here...

    …I’m still sticking with Sciortino as my dream candidate for Markey’s seat, Ayanna or Sonia for Capuano’s, Eldridge for anything. I like the idea of Clark for Treasurer. I gotta give props to Bump as an auditor, but not so much as a candidate. That was a god-awful race she ran in 2010.

    If Coakley runs, is there anyone to love in position to run for AG?

    • Very difficult for Carl

      His geographic base? A district that is half in Medford (in the FIfth CD) and half in Somerville (out). It could be done, but it wouldn’t be very easy.

      • Disagree

        The man won a write in campaign and has an amazing track record of grassroots campaigning and I suspect his status as an LGBT activist and gay public official could open up a national fundraising network. Money means he wins the air war and his approach to campaigning means he could win the ground war. Id agree the geography is better in a different district.

        • Partly Disagree

          Rep. Sciortino defeated Rep. Ciampa on the gay marriage issue, and that alone. He has only marginally been known for transportation issues; he’s very much still considered a one-issue guy.

          Sciortino won a write in campaign against a buffoon and with the copious assistance of Mass Equality’s campaign team. That is the very opposite of grassroots. Had he not had a built-in campaign team of state-wide LGBT activists, there is no way he would have overcome the fact that he was not on the ballot.

          However, in a Congressional race, an outside organization (as well as outside money) is almost expected. But on Pablo’s point, half of his Rep district is not even in Markey’s district, it’s in Capuano’s. I doubt Sciortino could win a majority of Medford, let alone a majorirty of the 5th CD.

      • I can't disagree about his geographic base...

        …but I do think that many more progressives came out of the woodwork than just MassEquality for both his victory against Ciampa and his write-in win. He would immediately attract a HUGE progressive base of volunteers. He’d have a very strong grassroots base to work from.

        • Cambridge and Arlington could be Sciortino's Geographic Base

          Despite the fact that he only represents a tiny portion of CD-5, Sciortino could become the de facto favorite in Cambridge and Arlington along with Medford. Due to his progressive views, Sciortino would be a natural fit to represent half of Cambridge, which will likely produce more votes than any other city/town in a potential special election. I could also see him doing quite well in Arlington and Belmont if he can line up the support of progressive leaders like Brownsberger.

          Sciortino’s base of volunteers goes well beyond MassEquality. Getting supported by MassEquality helps, but it does not win races alone. Sciortino is a tireless campaigner and fundraiser. While he can’t knock every door like he did in 2004 and 2008, I would expect to see him everywhere possible in CD-5 to support Markey’s Senate campaign.

          Also, he has really well developed views on issues beyond LGBT rights and transportation. His ideas on immigration and health care reform (he worked in public health before being elected in 2004) are innovative and would appeal across the district especially in a Democratic primary. Finally, he is one of the few legislators that I have ever met that actually reads every bill he votes on, and can articulate strong views about nearly all of his votes during his time on Beacon Hill.

    • Re: AG

      Brownsberger my top choice for AG, followed by Koutojian. Both have records as being fair and balanced prosecutors, Koutojian has done some great work on reducing recidivism and Brownsberger is, as Charley said, a man that oozes integrity and would be great for cleaning up corruption, taking on polluters, and advocating for consumers. Best AG since Harshbarger if he runs. Love to see him or someone as awesome take on Galvin.

      • Perhaps other DA's would look at AG

        that is if Coakley does not seek re-election…but, I think she will stay put and not risk ending her career with another high profile loss in a Gov. race.

        • She's going for it

          And so will Tim and Steve.

          • Agreed

            I think Coakley is running for Gov. Foolishly. Why give up a safe seat she could have for life? My gut says she’s in.

            None of those names (Brownsberger, Koutojian) do much for me. I hope we get some better names.

            • You never no

              Leone is out, Cabral could go for that,Conley stays put, maybe the Norfolk or Essex DAs? Worcester? Idk who they are. Brownsberger is a solid prosecutor, victims rights advocate, and clean and incorruptible State Senator and also a consumer rights and environmental activist. Not sure if he is well known outside the towns he has served though.

              Frank Cousins could be a great candidate on the GOP side for AG if Coakley is out. Black, moderate, and a record of strong public service-exactly what the GOP is lacking right now.

  6. Capuano staying put.

    Via Facebook:

    Thank you for all of your good wishes. They have truly meant a great deal. After careful consideration, I have decided not to enter the race for US Senate. Instead, I look forward to focusing on the important issues facing the new Congress. My current work in the House and whatever opportunities the future may hold, afford me the greatest honor of my life; fighting for the Citizens of the Commonwealth.

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