The pollsters point out that 86% of registered voters report knowing a special election is taking place, but a majority of voters could not identify the candidates. Nearly half of respondents never heard of Markey (18%) or have no opinion of him (30%), but those numbers are far lower for Markey than for any other candidate. The others range from Lynch (60.3% never heard of OR have no opinion) to poor Dan Winslow (almost 70% never heard of, 22% heard of but no opinion, for a total of 91.5%). Obviously some of these folks will become much better known as things go on, but for now Markey’s well ahead (at least in this poll).
Markey leads Lynch in the primary polling by 50.0% to 20.5%. His placement at the 50% marker has to be good news for him. Against the GOP candidates in a hypothetical general, Markey also holds big leads:
- Up 17.2 on Michael Sullivan (47.5% to 30.3%)
- Up 19.5% on Gabriel Gomez (47.0% to 27.5%)
- Up 23.2% on Dan Winslow (49.1% to 25.9%)
Note than Sullivan, the favorite right now among the GOP field, is the only one cracking 30%. He’s also the best known Republican, though 40% say they’ve never heard of him and another 39% say they have no opinion.
Lynch also leads all three Republicans by similar margins (up 17 on Sullivan, 18 on Gomez, 24 on Winslow).
In other news, the poll found Scott Brown with higher name recognition then other likely Republican Gubernatorial candidates in 2014, and that nearly 59% would support him (32.7% very likely, 26.0 somewhat likely). He has support of 92% of self-identified Republican respondents, and still (to my everlasting chagrin) of nearly 37% of self-identified Democratic respondents.
A full 2/3 of respondents report having never heard of Charlie Baker or having no opinion of him. Guess he made a huge impression as the 2010 nominee of a major political party for Governor.