I thought I’d take a look at the most dangerous Senate races coming up next year. It looks certain that Democrats will lose some Senate seats, and the chances of pickup are hard to find. For example, Susan Collins is unlikely to lose her seat in Maine, and, while I’d like to hope that Mitch McConnell in Kentucky is vulnerable to a Democratic challenger, that seems wildly unlikely.
Montana is looking like a sure loss: Max Baucus is retiring. The Republicans have a leading candidate and he is popular.
West Virginia has become very anti-Obama, and the Democrat Natalie Tenant is trailing badly to the likely Republican nominee. (Jay Rockefeller is retiring.)
Mary Landrieu is going to have a lot of difficulty holding onto her seat in Louisianan. Kay Hagan in North Carolina used to have large leads but those have narrowed considerably as a result of negative advertizing. Perhaps some defense would help retain the seat.
Tim Johnson in South Dakota is retiring. Happily there is a libertarian in the race drawing off about 11% of the vote in this rather red state. The Republican in the race is repeating Rudy Giulliani’s odd performance: the more he campaigns the worse his popularity. Likely nominee Democrat Rick Weiland remains a long shot though.
Mark Pryor in Arkansas will likely be challenged by a current Republican House member. The government shutdown currently depresses their popularity so Pryor might hold on.
Oddly Mark Begich in Alaska seems to be very lucky right now. Republicans in his state want to nominate Sarah Palin who is unpopular up there now. Second to Palin is the toxic and likewise unpopular Rep. Miller. Should Republicans nominate someone else, though, then this seat will be very difficult to retain.
In summary, there is a lot of reason to be alarmed about Democratic Senate prospects in 2014. Maybe we shouldn’t wait until the news gets more dire.
jconway says
With LePage on the ballot generating massive Democratic turnout. That Elliot Cutler instead of potentially spoiling Michaud should run against Collins if he is so desperate to get elected somewhere. Baldacci is still well known and well liked. Somebody’s gotta run.
Also you forget that Sam Nunns daughter is running competitively in GA. Our best hope is that McConnell narrowly beats his tea party opponent in a negative bitter contest wasting his money an then righties stay home and moderates break for Grimes. It’s sort of a perfect storm though. SD could be a lot more competitive and the guy is running as a Liz Warren populist instead of a Stephanie Herseth DINO. Landrieu is done, Hagan and Pryor will be close but they will win.
kbusch says
Collins is one of those cases were a bunch of negative campaign advertizing would be very useful. As far as I can tell, the Democrats up there don’t start campaigning against her until they have a candidate and that is way too late.
JimC says
n/t
striker57 says
I’ve worked two election cycles in LA. Don’t write Mary Landrieu off. That’s been done in the past and she’s still there. Old political family and 12 months in a lifetime in politics.
ryepower12 says
long-term, if we retain the majority and she loses her seat, it could be one of those cases of addition by subtraction.