As you know, I’m generally a fan of polling. I think it works pretty well, at least when done by experienced, non-partisan outfits, and as we get close enough to election day that the upcoming elections creep into the consciousness of the “average voter,” it does indeed supply a decent snapshot of where things stand.
That said, the current polling in Massachusetts is weirdly all over the place. Consider the last two polls of the statewide races, conducted within a couple of days of each other.
WBUR/MassINC (502 likely voters, Sept. 16-21, MOE +/- 4.4%)
Governor: Coakley 46%, Baker 36% (C +10)
Casino repeal: No 51%, Yes 41% (No +10)
Globe/SocialSphere (400 likely voters, Sept 21-23, MOE +/- 4.9%)
Governor: Coakley 38%, Baker 40% (C -2)
Casino repeal: No 48%, Yes 44% (No +4)
A 12-point swing to Charlie Baker over the few days in which those two polls were taken, and in which not much of note happened in the Governor’s race? I don’t think so. Someone’s methodology, or likely voter screen, or something, is falling down on the job. Or at least one of those polls is an outlier.
Regardless of which poll is “right,” of course, that doesn’t change your job. Your job is to help your candidate win. We’ve updated our Act Blue page so that you can easily help out financially – the button at the top left corner of the page will remain there through election day for your convenience. Even better, of course, is for you to hit the streets for the candidate(s) and/or cause(s) of your choice.
They say this year could be a low turnout, relatively low interest election. If that’s so, your ability to influence the results as a person who will vote, and who is in fact interested, will be that much greater. Don’t waste the opportunity.
JimC says
Republicans vote more reliably. That’s worrisome.
fenway49 says
had Baker down only 3 and tied. For whatever reason he’s done quite well in their polling. If I recall correctly they were kind of off on the primary. Back then they were overstating Coakley’s lead in virtually every poll. Screwy.
As for Republicans and turnout, they didn’t really turn out in last year’s Senate race. They might be tired of elections too. Maybe Coakley’s best bet with respect to Republican turnout is to make it seem (via polling, I figure) that she’s up at least 5-10 so the Republicans think it’s futile.
methuenprogressive says
There’s a certain type, even here on BMG, that approve of misogyny.
David says
that incident happened after these polls were completed. If it had any impact, we should see it in next week’s polling.
johnk says
that might be a factor here and Coakley will need to handle out of states attacks.
Trickle up says
’cause it ain’t got that swing.
Um, no. A 12-point difference between polls using different methodologies, taken at about the same time.
I’m not saying we can’t have an interesting, meaningful, fun discussion about that difference, but it does not represent movement over time.
David says
Perhaps my verbiage was a tad imprecise. My point is that if both polls are an exact reflection of where the entire electorate is over the stated polling days, then there’s been a big swing in the electorate in a very few days. And that seems unlikely – much more likely is that the difference reflects different pollsters and different methodologies, as you have observed.
Mark L. Bail says
Are these the right percentages to reflect the likely voter turnout? The WBUR poll isn’t weighted.
18 to 29… 12%
30 to 44… 26%
45 to 59… 33%
60+…….. 29%
The Globe polls looks like it’s weighted by affiliation and age.
Mark L. Bail says
I’m having a problem reading it on my laptop.
JimC says
Link
jconway says
Baker has a new ad out and it’s good, and is even getting positive press in the black community.
We will see how badly ‘sweetheart’ damaged him, it may hurt him slightly with moderate Democratic and unenrolled women who might’ve switched tickets. But make no mistake, this is still Coakley’s race to lose and it would take severe ineptitude to lose to a candidate as bad as Baker.
johnk says
if you think you’re up. Not saying it’s better or even correct, but it feels like Baker’s internals are closer to the WBUR poll.