Mr Inhofe, I’ll see your snowball and raise you the entire nation of #Vanuatu.
— Blue Mass Group (@bluemassgroup) March 16, 2015
We officially shattered our snow record this winter, due to a climate-fueled hotspot in the Atlantic. Meanwhile the island nation of Vanuatu (known to Survivor fans) has been utterly devastated by historically powerful Cyclone Pam.
Add that to the list: Boston snow. California drought. Cyclone Pam, following Typhoon Haiyan a mere 17 months ago. The climate-fueled Syrian civil war. If this is what life is like with a mere 0.85C degree rise in global temperatures, just imagine what 4 degrees C will do. It’s unimaginable. That’s the nasty future that awaits our kids: Extreme weather, hunger, drought, — and because of all those things, war.
Years ago, we should have gotten onto a “war footing” with climate change — treating it as the existential threat to our civilization that it is. We have not done anywhere near enough. And yet … there are signs that the world economy is decoupling from carbon emissions. 2014 was the first year that emissions held steady while still experiencing economic growth:
We’ve heard some cautious rejoicing comes from scientists and media this weekend about the world economy and energy carbon dioxide emissions finally decoupling last year. World emissions of CO2 remained at 32.3 billion tons in 2014, while world GDP figures grew by 2.9%. Many analysts have hailed the change as showing that emission reduction efforts to combat climate change may be bearing more fruit than previously calculated. In an exclusive communication with CleanTechnica, Michael Mann, climatologist, geophysicist, and director of the Earth System Science Center at Pennsylvania State University, stated, “This a hopeful demonstration of the fact that we can decarbonize and grow the economy at the same time.”
You can see from the graph that it’s not exactly a miracle yet. We need a lot more than holding steady: We need to push down carbon emissions, as fast as possible, everywhere.
What do we have to do here in MA? Well, everything. Everything.
- Fight for the MBTA — for the preservation and expansion of low-carbon transportation.
- Implement a carbon tax. Senator Mike Barrett is sponsoring one now. Massachusetts needs strong measures to comply with its own Green Communities Act, which calls for carbon emissions to be brought down by 25% below 1990 levels by 2020. We’re not on target to meet that goal.The carbon tax has supporters from the right side of the aisle, like economist Greg Mankiw and former GOP Rep Bob Inglis of SC: It’s thought to be an economically “clean” way to discourage fossil fuel use and put renewables on parity with fuels that externalize the costs of their harm.
- Expand efficiency programs massively, instead of building more gas pipeline capacity. Target them at the most vulnerable to price spikes. We should not double down on dependence on volatile commodities, particularly when doing so yokes those least able to pay to continued price swings.
- Expand Massachusetts clean energy sector. Martha Coakley wanted to double funding for the MA Clean Energy Center. Baker should do the same. And yes, save Cape Wind. These are home-grown jobs. And there is no future worth having that preserves the role of fossil fuels.
- Urgently pursue climate resilience: Preserve wetlands. Protect against floods, where possible. Mitigate vs. storm surges — Climate change means plenty of snow and rain for us for the forseeable future. And rising sea levels for the next century are a certainty. We will be flooded if we don’t adapt, now.
It is unimaginable that climate has become a partisan issue: Both parties should be falling all over each other for who can more strongly protect the homeland from a massive threat. But in Massachusetts, I’m hopeful that we do have an opportunity for climate bipartisanship. We have a Republican governor who has made some receptive noises to the continuation of strong climate policies in Massachusetts. If he “wasn’t smart enough” a few years ago, he’s at least considering getting smarter. We need him to take full-throated national leadership on the issue, to be out front and shame the deniers in his own party. It’s not unprecedented for a Republican governor to do so: Arnold Schwarzenegger gave up the Hummer and became a noted enviro; and former NJ Governor and EPA chief Christie Todd Whitman is a strong carbon tax supporter.
There’s plenty we can do here. Someone’s got the be the example for the country. And as it turns out, collective action does seem to be making a difference — not enough, and not in time, but enough to prove the value of pushing further on all fronts. It’s working.
SomervilleTom says
The relationship between this winter’s snow total and climate change has not been demonstrated in any rigorous way. A blog post is NOT evidence, especially when it comes to climate change.
There are legitimate arguments about oscillations like the ENSO/PDO cycle and our snowfall. There is incontrovertible data like the most recent GISS report and an associated NASA bulletin that shows the reality of climate change (emphasis mine):
I know that it is sorely tempting to attribute each extreme event to global warming. Unfortunately, that also opens the door to a army of denier barbarians who cherry-pick cold spots and cite them as evidence of “alarmism”. There are researchers pursuing rigorous causal associations between climate change and extreme events. Studies like Did Climate Change–Induced Rainfall Trends Contribute to the Australian Millennium Drought? are more persuasive (emphasis mine):
I understand that this is a blog, and that such research makes for dry (no pun intended) reading. Still, we are a reality based blog, and I think such messages will be more persuasive in the long run if we continue to err on the side of caution.
It is too soon to say that our extreme snowfall this winter was a consequence of anthropogenic global warming.
Charley on the MTA says
But who knows if it was caused by steroids?
Michael Mann and Kevin Trenberth have strong suspicions regarding the role of climate change in this winter’s record snows.
“Heavy snows mean the temperature is just below freezing, any cooler and the amount would be a lot less,” adds Kevin Trenberth, a climate expert at the National Center for Atmospheric Research. “Warmer waters off the coast help elevate winter temperatures and contribute to the greater snow amounts. This is how global warming plays a role.”
You know, deniers are gonna deny. I can’t be worried about them, not right now. They’ll come around if and when they want to. It’s the folks that know there’s a problem, or suspect there is, that I’m interested in reaching, and trying to help make this a priority for them, so that we can beat the deniers at the polls. To me, more record weather is simply exactly what climatologists have been predicting. That’s not exaggeration, it’s seeing the data points when you see them in front of your face.
SomervilleTom says
While I have exactly the same reaction as you, the intensity of that reaction does not make it any more valid for either of us.
This approach is dangerously vulnerable to confirmation bias.
historian says
The whiz kid who almost trashed his new blog over the issue of climate change
Charley on the MTA says
And also, the greater danger is of *underplaying* the danger of global warming. That’s where the public discussion is at right now, wouldn’t you agree? Would you say the public is a.) properly alarmed, or b.) rather dangerously complacent re. the danger? I think we probably agree that b.) is the case.
SomervilleTom says
To the extent that we disagree, it is only about how we solve the problem.
If our gut feeling is confirmed by rigorous science, then it won’t take long for somebody to publish a peer-reviewed paper showing the causality between our record snowfall and global warming. When that research is published, IT should be referenced on blogs like this.
The unhappy political reality is that deniers own the mainstream media, they control both the Senate and the House, and they dominate the political conversation. That means that for any speculative assertion about an extreme weather event that we promote (and these are, at the moment, speculative assertions) there will be be hundreds of counter-assertions replete with Senator Inhofe and his snowballs.
The 117 people that are swayed by our blog post will cause thousands of people to see yet more garbage.
In my view, the best way to counter the garbage is to be rigorously disciplined about the sources we cite and conservative in how we interpret the papers.
In journalistic jargon — show, don’t tell.
Charley on the MTA says
to be fiddling while Rome burns. Get a @#$%# bucket already. If I’m not doing it right, well YOU do it.
But “show, don’t tell” is good advice that I will take to heart.
SomervilleTom says
I’m perhaps over-sensitive by spending time in places like the Accuweather climate change blog.
Christopher says
How in the world is the Syrian civil war connected to climate change?
Charley on the MTA says
Historic drought in Syria caused population upheaval:
And here is it in cartoon form.
That’s our future.
Trickle up says
and war = climate change.
Millions of people depend on water from glaciers to live.
Some of them live in countries with nuclear weapons.
This is not a good combination.
afertig says
In addition to the links Charley provided, this is a really simple good explanation from an academic who actually conducted the study:
https://theconversation.com/climate-change-and-drought-a-spark-in-igniting-syrias-civil-war-38275
necturus says
I am pessimistic that anything will be done about climate change as long as capitalism continues to be the philosophy that governs our economic activity. As long as market forces favor short-term individual gain over long-term general welfare, business will tend to go to states and countries that lack carbon taxes or other restrictions on climate-altering behavior.
Moreover, climate change is taking place over decades and is unlikely to affect any corporation’s bottom line immediately, giving investors plenty of time to reap quick profits and be long gone before the consequences of the activities they underwrite become evident. I read the other day that real estate speculators are pouring millions into beach front property in Miami that everyone knows will be underwater in twenty or thirty years. They don’t care; they will be long retired — presumably not in Florida — by then.
The political will does not exist to abolish capitalism right now; any attempt to do so on less than a global scale would simply cause an exodus of capital to more friendly countries, to the detriment of living standards in the country attempting the experiment. If any country were in a position to try, it would be China with its ruling Communist Party; yet money talks there as loudly as here, and China is rotten to the core with corruption.
It can’t be conclusively shown that recent natural events such as our record-breaking winter are the result of climate change, let alone the Syrian civil war, which might as justly be blamed on foreign policy blunders by the Bush and Obama administrations.
My gut tells me climate change will end only several decades from now, when the global population declines far enough that human economic activity no longer drives climate change. There will be little we can do as a state or even a nation, I think, to arrest this course.
judy-meredith says
I think it was almost a year ago you put together a small group of folk to see if we could figure out a way to focus on one campaign to address climate control…I invited a couple of groups doing grassroots education and mobilization around many issues on your list, making the T more accessible, reducing our carbon footprint, energy conservation, recycling and on and on. Every single brochure, flyer and call to action mentioned the importance of addressing climate change and how this individual and group action fit into a big vision that protected Mother Earth. And they are still hard at work. Our Dorchester Civic Forum on May 1, as a capstone of April’s 40th Anniversary month of Earth Day is going to brag on the neighborhood efforts.
See you there?
Charley on the MTA says
is a great example and inspiration!
Friday May 1? Lemme check that schedule.
historian says
These are the kind of facts ignored by almost all major media outlets.