The biggest, most surprising news out of last night’s debate is that the moderators did really well. Megyn Kelly, Bret Baier, and Chris Wallace were prepared, tough, adept at managing a big crowd on stage, and only occasionally succumbed to Fox News-style right wing pandering. Kudos to them (aside from the unfortunate “God” question at the end) for a job surprisingly well done. They made Fox News look like a respectable news operation for a couple of hours, and that is not easy to do.
Beyond the moderators, I’d give the night to Marco Rubio and John Kasich, with one big caveat. Both of them handled pretty much every question smoothly, and some more than that. They both made a solid “conservative” case while also looking like plausible general election candidates.
The caveat, of course, is Donald Trump. If any other candidate had turned in the performance he gave, we’d call it a disaster (Politico makes a similar point). But because it’s Trump, we honestly don’t know. Everyone was ready to call him done after his John McCain comments, but he only got stronger. One thing is for sure: he was the Donald everyone expected. So I really don’t think we can say how Trump did last night until we see some post-debate polling, campaign events, etc. The pundits (like our friend Joan Vennochi) who are gleefully declaring his moment over are, with all respect, not entirely clear on why he is polling so well in the first place.
Also worth noting is that, of the second-tier candidates who participated in the 5 pm “happy hour” debate, Carly Fiorina clearly distinguished herself as someone worth watching. It’ll be interesting to see whether her strong performance translates into anything more substantial.
doubleman says
I’d give it to Rubio and Kasich as well. I actually really liked Kasich. I wonder if anything will change, but he seems like a much better candidate for moderates and smarter conservatives to embrace than Jeb.
Watching some of the post-debate coverage, including some Republican focus group work from Frank Luntz, it seemed like Huckabee and Cruz were the big winners. I was surprised to hear that. I thought Cruz was unremarkable and that Huckabee, although he had great delivery, really showed himself to be an extremist (I guess that’s what many R primary voters want, though).
Rand Paul seemed reasonable on some things, but also petty and trying to get attention – I think it backfired.
Christie did well on many things, but his only standout moment was his exchange with Paul, which he may have “won,” but also exposed his hard right take on national security and government surveillance.
Ben Carson looked terrible except for his great closing.
Jeb – Meh.
Trump’s answer to the opening question re: running as an independent and his absolutely disgusting answer regarding women are going to hurt him. I think the “says what he means” meme about Trump wore off hard with those answers. I bet he tanks in the next poll.
Scott Walker does not seem like a bright person. I know people love his anti-union stances, but even compared to the rest of that group, he does not seem ready for primetime.
johntmay says
I had never seen him live. Wow, “deer in the headlights” comes to mind. I’ve got to agree with your assessment.
Christopher says
…but maybe that’s just my biases on the merits talking.
It may have been intended as a dig at her insiderism, but my favorite line of the night was Rubio’s saying that if this election becomes a resume contest Hillary Clinton will be the next President.
The other thing that will hurt Trump with GOP primary voters are his previous liberal views and chumminess with the Clintons.
If I were a GOP voter Kasich may well be my choice, competent with experience as both Governor and Congressman on key committees, which is what I look for.
Nothing last night moved me from the view that Jeb Bush will ultimately be the nominee.
doubleman says
Yeah, I thought Paul made the better point, but Christie’s retort cut deeper, and appealed to more conservatives than libertarian-leaning Republicans that would side with Paul.
Another thing re: Trump. It was kind of awesome to see his answer about how he gives to both parties because they will do things for him. He wasn’t lying. Huckabee made a point a bit later about how politicians don’t work for the people but instead for the wealthy – he blew it by not calling out exactly what Trump said about blatantly buying favor.
Al says
What I’ve been seeing on Boston channels around 7:00 PM are warm and fuzzy Kasich ads, very measured in tone and not at all threatening. OTOH, the others, especially the gov of NJ, have been playing the somber rant game which makes me cringe. Who could give them a vote?
Christopher says
…but they definitely set the tone and direction of the debate with their questions, keeping mostly within the GOP comfort zone. I’ve seen all kinds of Dem emails and FB posts about what wasn’t said regarding things like voting rights and police tactics, etc., but the candidates didn’t mention these because they weren’t asked.
centralmassdad says
I doubt there will be questions at the Dem debates about what kind of wall to build in Mexico, or whether to invade Iran immediately, or wait a few months, or about how to repeal Obabacare.
GOP primary voters could care less about police tactics or voting rights.
Christopher says
If the Dems consent to a Fox debate I can see Fox trying to make them squirm. The audience may very well be the reason, but that still means it’s less the candidates’ fault than some Dem messages seem to imply.
centralmassdad says
Which is why there won’t be a Dem debate on Fox. Theirs will be pitched to their primary voters as well.