A great and quick piece on apportionment and how the next census could hurt or harm Democrats. I will say, I am glad the PA Supreme Court is in safe hands after yesterday and OH backed non-partisan redistricting. Otherwise, a somewhat grim picture of the sunbelt gaining at the expense of the Northeast and Midwest.
The question is, will those new voters take their progressive values with them to the Southeast and Southwest, or will moving there turn them conservative/libertarian?
Please share widely!
jcohn88 says
OH’s isn’t exactly non-partisan redistricting as it’s often thought of:
Although it’s still better than the status quo there: http://www.dailykos.com/story/2015/10/30/1435204/-Ohio-Republicans-give-voters-a-chance-to-reform-legislative-redistricting-but-buyer-beware.
And, as a Philly native, I was very excited about the PA news. It’s a horribly gerrymandered state. I wrote about the SEPA gerrymanders here: http://www.dailykos.com/story/2014/05/17/1298675/-The-Gerrymandered-Districts-of-Southeastern-Pennsylvania.
Christopher says
That’s where we need to focus. The DGA needs to run on all cylinders for 2018 when a majority of Governors who will be in office are elected. In our favor is that 2020 is a presidential year when we tend to do better. I just wish Dems could figure out a way to turn out the same people in midterms as in presidential years. That is what kills us.
stomv says
We can’t just focus on POTUS. We’ve got to figure out how to win POTUS with significant coat tails at the state legislature level.
jconway says
I am saying Dems obsess over presidential elections and have gotten rather good at them recently, but we are getting our asses kicked in statehouses across America, which is ultimately where the next round of redistricting will come out. It really offends me that 40% of the country gets to kill 90% of the agenda of whichever President 52-55% of us will likely send into the White House next year. That 40% of the country can kill any kind of gun control, that 40% of the country can kill the public option. It’s time we really focused on fixing our democracy and not just the important, but in the long run, somewhat futile White House effort.
There is no way we win the House in 2016, the map is rigged, and statehouses picked in 2010 rigged it. Let’s think a few cycles ahead people so we can avoid the same fate…
stomv says
The House is an awfully steep climb, no doubt. But given the power of incumbency, Democrats need to fight for seats now and claw a few our way.
My point is this: take the union of precincts / wards where any one of these is competitive in 2016:
* POTUS
* US Senate
* US House
* state senate
* state house
* governor
* local legislature
* local executive
and you’ve got yourself an awful lot of America. Let’s not omit districts just because the POTUS isn’t competitive.
fredrichlariccia says
Governor Dean is the Champion Founder of the successful Democratic 50 state strategy.
I say hire him and his team to develop and execute a massive grassroots organizational effort now for 2016 and beyond at every level — national, state and local.
Fred Rich LaRiccia
Christopher says
…will not be elected in 2016. They will be in 2018 and 2020 with a handful in 2019.
jconway says
Apparently Cambridge turnout was about the same as last time, a small uptick from 21% to 25%, which was a five year high. But the under 30 cohort registered it’s highest turnout in over ten years thanks to the Mazen slate (which I wouldn’t have voted for) and a high number of under 30s running. I’ve been contacted today by more than one campaign asking if I might run or if I’ve been in touch with other potential candidates, since a lot of people are already looking at 2017. There was an untapped constituency that just got woken up.
So hopefully that happens elsewhere-it seems it happened in Boston too with youth turnout helping oust longtime incumbents Yancey and Murphy. It is my hope this trend continues.
The biggest issue-people my age vote regularly for President, they are voting regularly now for council candidates they’ve been in touch with, it’s the rep and governors races we gotta keep pushing. Having youth friendly ballot initiatives focused on the environment as Charley has been discussing or focused on pot legalization and criminal justice reform can also really push turnout up.
But we need more under 30 candidates for statehouse positions, no question.
Christopher says
…you will have to pull yourself out of Chicago – just saying:)
I’d be careful about classifying marijuana legalization as youth friendly. That just seems to be asking for stereotypes to be confirmed.
jconway says
If the Kennedy School will have me next fall, I’m set. If not, well, I’ll keep applying to other policy schools and jobs and we’ll see what hits.
centralmassdad says
Doesn’t much trigger one’s radar until one pays property taxes and/or is directly interested in the operation of the school system. Age 20s are transient years, and it seems to me it will always be tough to get meaningful participation in a local govt election from them.
merrimackguy says
when an actual high school student speaks out (like op-ed or in a public forum) on an upcoming vote. Good for them to get interested in something important, but odds are that kid could care less for the next 10-15 years once they leave HS.
I have to admit legalization of marijuana was my number 1 issue from 18-22. That is because I went to school in Ann Arbor, MI and it was decriminalized there (and barely enforced) and I kinda got used to that and was worried that I would be busted elsewhere. Ultimately I stopped smoking pot though and my interest in that issue waned.
Christopher says
…I believe it has been shown that as with other habits, if people start voting early they will remain a committed voter.
SomervilleTom says
Perhaps because I’m part of the cohort that fought long and hard for the right to vote at 18, I’ve voted in pretty much every election since then. In local elections where I don’t know the candidates, I’ll generally turn in a ballot anyway.
I think voting is a habit that we should most definitely encourage. Like all habits, it is strengthened by repetition.
jconway says
I was really involved with the lower the voting age effort in Cambridge-and haven’t been at all since I was old enough to vote.
Peter Porcupine says
Many are leaving because they are Libertarian.
Rob Eno of Red Mass is a poster child for this. He is now a proud citizen of South Carolina. He will be a voluble font of horror stories about being governed by Democrats – and since he is from the MA Super-Majority kleptocracy, they will be true. Many younger people are leaving MA to make it financially elsewhere, and their stories will not reflect progressive values.
It’s why MA is getting older, smaller, and more progressive. As boomers age, the PERMANENT population will become less and less sustainable, as we cook the demographic books with temporary college residents – who don’t vote except for President.
SomervilleTom says
If Mr. Eno continues the practices in South Carolina that he maintained here, the residents of that fine state will do well to carefully investigate the accuracy of each and every “horror story” he conveys.
The Massachusetts GOP has steadfastly opposed virtually EVERY meaningful effort to address the crushing forces that drive young people away from Massachusetts. The complaints I hear most often from the twenty-somethings I know through my children are (a) overwhelming student debt (b) no professional opportunities at all (c) soaring housing costs and (d) soaring transportation costs combined with collapsing public transportation.
I have yet to hear even one of them mention taxes or “business environment” as a reason.
In states where it is possible, most college graduates continue to live where they finished school. Your insulting phrase — “cook the demographic books with temporary college residents” — epitomizes the attitudes that drive voters of all ages away from the GOP.
Some of us are proud of the Massachusetts tradition of academic excellence. Some of us view our many colleges and universities — and the students, faculty, and staff affiliated with them — as among our most valuable assets.
Some of us do not.
centralmassdad says
That guy is a dolt.
I suspect that people who move from here to there probably mirror the political alignment of the country as a whole–and that may mean aligning “Republican” in places where party alignment is actually a thing rather than a theory. In any event, I suspect that the Rust BElt to Sun Belt migration has stalled; in no small part because unemployment stayed higher for longer in places like SC and FL during the last recession.
MA is getting older for the same reason that everywhere else is: people had a shit-ton of babies right after WWII and those babies are now old people.
No, I don’t expect that that sort of migration is really going to have a huge impact on local politics, unless the scale of the migration is truly epic.
Christopher says
Plenty of people have moved to NH over the years too, to escape whatever it is about MA they don’t like (taxes, I guess, but the facts don’t always match feelings in that regard), but look at what all those MA exiles have turned NH into – from solidly GOP to arguably a bluish shade of purple. Maybe they realize they like a well-funded and well-run state afterall. Ironically here in the Merrimack Valley, people pine for a certain image of NH and vote accordingly, but in reality their perceptions are about a generation out of date.
jconway says
But plenty of us are trying to move back and can’t afford to or lack the opportunity. And the folks I knew who moved from Cambridge decamped for Austin, Denver and Colorado so they won’t be socially conservative anytime soon.
And Rob Eno endorsed Jim Miceli against a very viable Republican challenger so he has no right to lecture any of us on the supermajority. He was just fine with it when it served a socially conservative agenda.