Imagine a football team that matters big time in the world it lives in. Like a Texas high school team or a public university in a fly-over state. I mean big.
The team has a long time successful coach who is the cock of the walk. He was a legend as a player and now he’s an local institution as coach.
Now let’s say the coach has a son who is his starting quarterback. He’s been groomed for it. And now it’s his senior year and the team is kicking ass and on its way to the state’s or a national championship.
Then the kid gets hurt. Breaks two fingers in his throwing arm. Obvious to everyone that he can’t play in the game. Not this time. Only one who doesn’t see it is the coach, the kid, and the cronies.
The other kids on the team are rolling their eyes. They know they have a back up who can do the job plus plus they always doubted that others got a legitimate look for the QB spot.
The coach and his sycophants are telling people the kid’s earned the job and he knows the position better than anyone else. Pay no attention the splint on his fingers and his lack of accuracy. Nobody deserves the QB position as much as he does. End of argument.
Anyway, the Democratic Party is like the coach and his cronies; Hillary is the kid who can’t play because of the injury; the injury are the polls which say she loses to Donald Trump and others because of her high negative numbers; and the other kids on the team are everyday Democrats.
Draft Elizabeth Warren. This election is not about Hillary.
Vote for Bernie and draft Liz.
Christopher says
…except for that big glaring part where it doesn’t apply to Hillary at all!:)
eb3-fka-ernie-boch-iii says
where she has been forced upon the dem party?
where her srgument is she’s earned it more than the others?
where we ignore the baggage she brings that does nothing but divider?
where we ignore it is becoming unlikly she can beat Donald Trump, never mind beating a non-clown.
Christopher says
She hasn’t been forced on the party; last I checked Sanders was still in the race and three others had declared their candidacies.
Her “baggage” has been more thoroughly searched than an ISIS member trying to board a plane and nothing we don’t know.
She can absolutely beat Trump; just run a series of quotes followed by “I’m Hillary Clinton and I approve this message.” The ads write themselves.
She HAS earned it in spades!
ryepower12 says
Very, very, very ugly.
This is doubly, triply a problem because she is so well known, and so deeply disliked by not only Republicans, but *Independents,* who are the people who will decide the election.
A large majority of independents are never — ever — going to vote for Hillary Clinton. The only way she can win a general is if there’s a massive turnout among democrats and everything goes right for her. Her ceiling — the absolute best the Democrats can do with her at the top of the ticket — is a very narrow victory.
And even Trump can beat her. The polls already say that, and given how well both of them are known across the public, there’s little reason to doubt them.
If it’s Trump-Clinton, a flip of the coin is basically the best odds our party can hope for, especially given how resilient and destructive he’s proven against other establishment candidates.
(Personally, I think Trump will beat her, if she’s the nominee.)
Christopher says
Even GOP strategists say they doubt she’ll make the same mistake other Republicans have of not taking him seriously. I don’t care what polls say now, but then, I haven’t used electability as a knock on Sanders either. Trump has been treated with kid gloves for the most part so far and I’m not sure he can gain much traction beyond the slice of one party that already supports him.
Christopher says
…many polls in swing states have our two right in about the same place vis-a-vis Trump.
Christopher says
Trying again
ryepower12 says
the better known a candidate, the more difficult it generally is for a candidate’s numbers to move positively during an election. That’s been born out in election after election — it’s very difficult to overcome it.
Trump and Clinton would be two of the best known candidates to ever run in any general election, two people that the country knows very well, for a very long time.
So, past results suggests it’s unlikely either candidate would move much in the polls — suggesting a tossup.
But there’s one key thing to Trump’s success: there’s nothing he could do or say that would surprise anyone — if there was anyone he could lose because of the things he says, they’re long since gone.
And, still, he’s pretty much at a statistical dead heat with Hillary in general election match-ups.
I think that bodes really, really poorly for Hillary. Trump can say anything — literally anything — and get away with it, and Hillary would be suddenly confronted by a lot of vicious attacks that go right at her weaknesses as a candidate that Bernie has never been willing to launch at her.
And, oh, by the way…. the FBI is looking like it may arrest one of her key underlings in the ongoing (and very worrisome) emailgate scandal.
At the very best, Hillary Clinton may — just may (through a Herculean effort) — be able to narrowly defeat Trump. A lot of things would have to go right, but it’s possible.
At worst, we could be saddled by the worst ‘October surprise’ of all time that could wipe out our party at the voting booths across the country, leading to a Trump presidency and massive legislative gains.
bob-gardner says
A. Pick a poll number from a bucket full of polls
B. Pick an axiom from a sack labelled ” axioms and unwritten rules”
C. Pick a prediction out of a basket marked “Thing I want to Be True”
Not to pick on you, Rye. This is pretty much the model for just about all the punditry this election cycle, and probably for a long time before this.
As far as this particular prediction is concerned, I have a couple questions.
How did Clinton and Trump poll head to head 6 months ago? A year ago? or three years ago? Or the first time they were ever polled head to head?
Clinton and Trump were just as famous three or four years ago as they are now. The numbers should be they same then as they are now.
Are they?
Christopher says
…plenty of Republicans are at least as panicky about Trump being their nominee.
centralmassdad says
So they can’t be ugly.
HR's Kevin says
You should know better. There are hardly any polls on the general race yet and all from poorly rated polling firms using low sample sizes on an unrepresentative national sample. Those polls are mostly BS and you know it. There is no such thing as an “Independent”. Some are really disaffected Republicans, some are Libertarians, some are disaffected Democrats, some are just not interested in politics at all. There are massive regional differences in what “Independent” means. Any polls that lump all of those people into one category aren’t really providing much in the way of useful information.
Making predictions based on sloppy national polling is foolish in the extreme and I really did not think that you were that foolish.
Yes, maybe there are a large number of sexist white guys who won’t vote for Hillary (or any woman for that matter), but there are more than enough women and minorities who will not vote for Trump to make up the difference. It is not even clear that the Republicans would even fully support Trump if he becomes the nominee. They might prefer to have Hillary than to have Trump destroy the Republican party as they know it.
JimC says
… the Manning comparison?
Maybe she had four neck surgeries and had some special deliveries made to her spouse — oh wait, I see why you didn’t go there.
mike_cote says
The diary was posted at 2:50PM EST, a little over 4 hours before the polls closed in South Carolina, a little over 5 hour before the race was called for Hillary. Does this mean that we can expect similar efforts to discourage voter turnout on Tuesday afternoon. While it is true that EB3 and I have not seen eye-to-eye basic ever (Never Ever), since this is suppose to be “Reality-Based Commentary” Blog, it would be nice if this site does not become a platform to discourage voter turnout of either candidate. Assuming, of course, that this is not to polyannaish.
kbusch says
“I do not approve of anything that tampers with natural ignorance. Ignorance is like a delicate exotic fruit; touch it and the bloom is gone. The whole theory of modern education is radically unsound. Fortunately in England, at any rate, education produces no effect whatsoever.”
― Oscar Wilde, The Importance of Being Earnest
mike_cote says
am I “Lady Bracknell” in this scenario, or am I representing “natural ignorance”? I should my Oscar Wilde better.
mike_cote says
“I should know my Oscar Wilde better.” is what I meant to write.
Christopher says
Last I checked Market Basket was still in business – just sayin’.