I do, seriously, want to know and haven’t been following this….life the last few years has been rather intense as those who know me well know, at least in part. Besides, collectively, BMGers know more than any one of us knows individually. I would, frankly, like to see Senator Sanders as Senate Majority Leader. No president can “do it alone”. The better the teamwork, the better the results.
Please share widely!
jconway says
Electoral Vote has it 52-48 R Majority
RCP has it as 53-47 R Majority.
The map is really difficult, and it does seem that R Senators are distancing themselves from Trump. Fortunately some of the new Democrats include folks like Russ Finegold and Maggie Hassan.
jconway says
538 has it at a 5-22 seat gain, though still short of a majority, the more gains D’s have, the harder it is for Paul Ryan.
sabutai says
In roughly descending of order of likelihood of a Democratic victory in a Republican-held seat.
Minnesota: Russ Feingold (D) v. Ron Johnson
Illinois: Tammy Duckworth (D) v. Mark Kirk
New Hampshire: Maggie Hassan (D) v. Kelly Ayotte
Florida: Patrick Murphy* v. Marco Rubio*
Missouri: Jason Kander v. Roy Blunt
Arizona: John McCain v. Ann Kirkpatrick
*Pending primary results
NOTE: Democrat-held Washington is of some concern.
blueinsaugus says
But would add Pennsylvania where Katie McGinty has an excellent chance.
…..and Russ Feingold should take Wisconsin.
I think Florida is possible, but will be a challenge.
stomv says
Evan Byah jumped into the Indiana race, and he’s got a big treasure chest to spend.
With very little info, I’d put Mr. Bayh above MO for sure, perhaps above FL.
sabutai says
Forgot about that one. Should have mentioned things look pretty bad for Democrats in the election for Harry Reid’s successor.
doubleman says
Also, it’s depressing to be excited about the prospect of Bayh back in the senate. Obviously better than the alternative, but hopefully if he gets back in things will have shifted and he won’t be viewed as a leader on that side like he used to be.
I remember that widely read op-ed he penned when he left the Senate about the problems of money in politics and the pressures to fundraise. And then he became a lobbyist.
Charley on the MTA says
in Maine’s 2nd district. The polling is very close.
http://www.rollcall.com/news/politics/democratic-poll-cain-poliquin-tied-maines-2nd-district
AmberPaw says
Thanks. I really had not been looking at these races. And Maine certainly has some remarkably remarkably obtuse Republicans.
Peter Porcupine says
I’ve met Bruce Poliquin a couple of times, and while you would disagree with him on everything, and I disagree with him on some, he isn’t obtuse. He’s very shrewd and intelligent. LePage’s victory helps him, too.
Maine is a little like the Cape – it LIKES a split delegation. See how Pingree has struggled.
North and South of Rt. One are different worlds.
jconway says
Is a prediction I’ll be consistent in. I’ll check out Caine though. Me-2nd is a good microcosm of the Democrats losing blue collar areas because of deindustrialization.
Christopher says
…if any significant jurisdiction in New England goes to Trump. On the one hand this is also the state that elected Paul LePage, but I’m pretty sure it was with a minority of the vote both times.
sabutai says
I worry about the same; of course that would gain Trump an electoral vote as Maine allocates two of their votes by congressional district. Hopefully Clinton can won one in Nebraska to offset it.
jconway says
But Me-2 voted for LePage both times, the second time against Michaud, a native son. Also they elected an R for the first time in 30 years to replace Michaud.
Peter Porcupine says
He was mayor of Waterville for MANY years. And general manager of the Marden’s store chain, a bug northern Maine discount store
He was also one of 18 children, didn’t grow up speaking English, and was a homeless street kid. Maine is a poor state,and voters north of Kittery respect his self made persona.
Christopher says
…but it still doesn’t excuse his being a jerk.
Peter Porcupine says
Media coverage is not the best way to look at a flamboyant personality.
Here’s something I hadn’t known, but found out in this film – http://www.miff.org/2016-films/page/2/
It was government policy to for over 100 years to take children from Native American parents and give them to whites to be ‘civilized’for their own good, mainly through the use of mandatory boarding schools, many of which were abusive at best.
LePage created the FIRST IN THE NATION commission to look at this practice, and how this prejudice is still alive in modern day social services takings. When you think about how many MORE tribes there are in the Midwest and how widespread the problem is (just numerically), it is a tremendous piece of leadership.
But perhaps he knew something about being an abused kid.
It is far more important than removing a mural from a wall, but you will never read about it elsewhere.
Christopher says
…who can give Donald Trump a run for his money in the outrageous comments department. His public policies include trying to deny Narcan to treat emergency overdoses on the premise that such people will just overdose again and maybe die that time anyway.
SomervilleTom says
I’m sure that Mr. LePage has done some marvelous things. So what.
There are statements and policies that are so far over the line that they may not be simply ignored because they are “balanced” by other less “flamboyant” comments. This old canard (“But he’s done so much good”) is trotted out each time a battered wife or child finds the courage to speak out against their well-known abusive spouse or parent.
It’s long past time for Republicans to stop making excuses for their “flamboyant” candidates.
stomv says
Jerks say things like:
centralmassdad says
It is almost fun to watch this kind of stuff from Republicans. Their party has just finished abandoning ALL of its principles, and is now morally and intellectually bankrupt.
Limited government? Nah-we need a strongman to fix things. And we need to make a registry of people’s religion, so that we know who those Moslems are.
Lower taxes? Nope, now we want to employ punitive taxation to businesses that do not do as they are told.
Fewer entitlements? Nope, less expand Medicare more, but just make sure that no Mexicans are covered
Freedom? Honor? Dignity? Nope, we like the guy who talks about how big his penis is and brags publicly about how many women he has f–ked.
Free trade? Gone. We’re protectionist now.
Family values? Well, the anti-gay thing has been skunked, and “pro-life” along with it.
Christian values? Nope! We like torture and assassinating innocent people who have the misfortune of being related to terrorists and criminals.
I don’t think it could possibly be more morally repugnant.
But, but, but Debbie Wasserman Shulz was just lambasted on FoxNews!
JimC says
My gut says Ayotte is safe. Hassan’s ascent to governor felt gradual and natural. I’m not sure people are ready for her to be Senator (because they’re not ready to boot Ayotte).
But I’d love to be wrong.
merrimackguy says
Does the current incumbent deserve to the fired?
When elected officials eff up (sex scandal, financial improprieties) the answer is usually clear. When they are out of sync with their electorate, then their opponent can make the case that they are out of step with the people. In a top of the ticket landslide emotion takes over and out they go.
In another year Ayotte would have nothing to fear, but with Trump an unknown she’ll bite nails all the way. If Trump really implodes (and for example the Putin comments this week have been stupid and risky) Ayotte goes down. If Trump remains competitive then she returns to office because current undecideds find no reason to fire her.
jconway says
McConnell aptly predicted that the prospect of a President Clinton would hell him maintain his majority and we may be seeing some ticket splitting in these states. Like Weld before her, it’s hard to be a popular Governor taking on a popular Senator in an election year though this race is a lot more nationalized than that one (from what I remember as an 8 year old Weld supporter).
centralmassdad says
Apparently, the Republican nominee for President is not so much interested in who has the majority in Congress, and has today attacked Speaker Ryan, Senator McCain, and Sen. Ayotte.
Nothing like your standard-bearer attempting to shiv (i) the Speaker of the House, from his own party; (ii) one of the most senior Senators from his own party, and a former nominee for President, and (iii) a Senator from his own party in a close race in a swing state, in August of a Presidential campaign year.
Maybe he won’t release his taxes because they will show that he is on salary at the DNC.
Almost makes you pity Sen. McConnell. Almost.
centralmassdad says
The link is HERE