Words fail to capture the degree to which Senate Republicans betrayed the public, in a 1:30am vote this morning. It is nothing short of a reworking of the economy, for the overwhelming benefit of the rich. You can read about it any number of places; the NYTimes op-ed writers sum it up as “A Historic Heist”:
The bill is expected to add more than $1.4 trillion to the federal deficit over the next decade, a debt that will be paid by the poor and middle class in future tax increases and spending cuts to Medicare, Social Security and other government programs. Its modest tax cuts for the middle class disappear after eight years. And up to 13 million people stand to lose their health insurance because the bill makes a big change to the Affordable Care Act.
Yet Republicans somehow found a way to give a giant and permanent tax cut to corporations like Apple, General Electric and Goldman Sachs, saving those businesses tens of billions of dollars.
In ditching the personal mandate, thus destabilizing the insurance markets, it is essentially akin to the “skinny repeal”. To very briefly summarize the effects in NPR’s tweet:
The tax bill will also reshape health care by:
1. Repealing Obamacare mandate
2. Repealing medical expense deduction
3. Trigger major cuts to Medicare
4. Change tax treatment for graduate students
5. Change/eliminate a pharmaceutical tax credithttps://t.co/rqJdT5EpIK— NPR (@NPR) December 1, 2017
Anyone can follow the news and find out the myriad ways this is a boot to the face of the vast majority of Americans. There is no reason for anyone who is not a billionaire to vote Republican, ever again.
For our purposes, I am interested in how we react in Massachusetts. We need to find ways to cushion the blow, and quickly; and we need to maximize whatever influence we may have in other states.
- Can the individual mandate be retained in Massachusetts, to avoid a premium death spiral?
- Depending on what happens in conference, graduate school tuition waivers might now be taxable. It is a dagger to the heart of higher education, which is, to state the obvious, our calling card, our economic engine, but a massive employer. How do we respond?
- November 2018 is coming up soon. It’s on everyone to consider carefully the most effective, high-leverage uses of one’s energy, time and money to take back Congress. There are a variety of groups: Indivisibles, SwingLeft, Flippable, Sister District — that are doing that kind of work to good effect. You can give to SwingLeft’s efforts to unseat GOP House members via ActBlue here. We need to preserve New Hampshire’s House seats, and win back Maine’s 2nd district from GOP toady Bruce Poliquin.
In any event, fulminating on here and on social media is not enough. It’s the grunt-work in meatspace that’s necessary. This is scorched-earth time. The GOP must be scoured from Congress. What will we do?
fredrichlariccia says
‘Never before have so few with so much promised to take away from so many and then laugh their asses off as the so many with so little vote for the so few with so much.” anon
jconway says
Agreed. I think this is also a great issue for our gubernatorial candidates to attack Baker on. What his position? What does he think about tax increases for all Massachusetts residents-including the upper middle class suburbanites who voted for him- subsidizing tax cuts for big businesses and wealthy individuals in other states? Driving our health care costs up and ostracizing one of our major economic bases by making research education the province of the wealthy instead of the many thousands of people who come and stay here?
We’re hosting a friend next week considering Boston for her residency, another good friend wants to come back to work at BU with her neuroscience doctorate. Not to mention how can yours truly help alleviate our teacher shortage or my wife alleviate our NP shortage if we lose these deductions?
Above the fray Baker has to be made takes sides: his constituents or his party. It’s not enough to be anti-Trump, all the establishment Republicans who’ve donated and campaigned for him have their hands in this too.
Christopher says
I think the more relevant question for Baker is what will he propose here in MA to alleviate the burden of the new federal tax code. Not sure what good forcing him to take sides will do except as a political mud fight. Would anything short of his leaving the party satisfy you?
jconway says
You really think Baker shouldn’t be questioned on a tax proposal his allies in Washington are pushing that will severely harm our states exonomy? Why are you
always so quick to defend someone you’re tasked with defeating at the ballot box?
Christopher says
What I seem to have missed is what it was wavering Republicans were offered/threatened with to keep them in line.
Trickle up says
A shame, because this would have been child’s play to stop.
Especially after even the CBO called it what it really is: a tax hike.
But from our glorious party, crickets.
That is a recipe for the failure we are getting. Predictable and predicted.
Maybe we need to think about cleaning our own house, if we want to save the country, and putting some real fighters in charge. The other guys aren’t going to do it.
Charley on the MTA says
I don’t understand this take at all. “Crickets”? That’s not true. It’s the exact opposite of true.
All of those things in your post were said. Loudly, repeatedly, on every platform. And the tax bill is .*extremely* unpopular.
But the GOP is gonna pass it anyway! Because they can. And because donors.
“Blame Democrats for a bill they’re voting against” is a bad take. I see among the DSA types because it fits their narrative that Dems are evil — and it’s just wrong in this case. Sorry.
Trickle up says
“Crickets” us unfair–to crickets, because even crickets chirp in unison. We do not.
The lesson you and others seem to be drawing is, We can’t win even though the people are on our side, because the bad guys are soooo corrupt.
That will continue to be true as long as party leaders (for lack of a better term) fail to connect popular will to a clear consistent message.
It does not matter how good some of the individual statements are (and some of them made me cheer.) There needs to be discipline.
In the crowd noise from my party, I did not hear the winning argument, which is that this bill will raise taxes for everyone who is not rich.
Maybe someone said that at some point. If so I missed it. But there was no unified message to that effect, repeated over and over.
I did not hear a clear message about the tax on taxes–the proposal to double tax state and local taxes.
Or the brain tax on grad students, upward mobility, and American innovation. Or the health tax that will result from the weakening of Obamacare, or the grandchildren tax that is the indenturing of that generation tomorrow, to pay for a 1% windfall today.
And how about the teacher tax and the mortgage tax and the huge tax hike in 10 years?
Sure, people talked about these things. But as usual there was no attempt to frame these issues into a winning campaign.
And it’s not hard, and we know how it’s done!
It’s framing, speaking as one, and repetition.
Charlie, whom should I blame for this gross political malpractice, if not the practitioners?
We did not elect these people so that they could parade their own excellent righteousness while they lose to overwhelming forces. I do not want to be unfair, but that seems to be your narrative.
We elected them to win. But they keep doing the same stupid, powerless things over and over again.
If there is not a change, 2018 will be the election that ratifies Republican control of both chambers. 2020, though not a shoe-in, could bring Trump’s second term. Because victory would require the framing, discipline, and repetition that we never seem to provide.
With the stakes that high, I think blame is appropriate. Not for the things you seem to attribute to me, but for the very real decision to eschew a disciplined campaign in favor of a cursory, undisciplined protest.
If you cannot win even when the people are with you, you are doing it wrong.
Charley on the MTA says
The GOP controls the Senate, 52-48. All the hand waving doesn’t get past that fact. They can pass stuff.
If you’re saying the Dems could use a stronger populist middle-class message, sure.
doubleman says
After it passed I saw Schumer lamenting the fact that the two sides couldn’t come together to do bipartisan tax reform. During the floor “debates” I saw more than a few Democrats talk about how “of course we need to do tax reform.” I saw more statements about “blows a hole in the budget” than the actual harm this bill does.
I’m happy to see all the Democrats vote against the final bill (some of the votes on amendments, however, were inexcusable) but the party line argument against this not only did not exist, it also did not focus on the reasons the public tells us they didn’t like the bill.
Charley on the MTA says
Strongly agreed that Schumer being wistful for bipartisanship was delusional and tone-deaf.
That being said, that wasn’t the only thing I heard from Dems in both houses. There was plenty of substantive, justice-based argumentation against the bill. And the public agrees. The Dems just don’t have the votes.
We have to change that part.
doubleman says
There were a lot of arguments but the most widespread was about the deficit and that is a loser politically – and also a complete lie substantively.
The Democrats have the people of this country on their side, and often overwhelmingly so, on almost every political issue. I don’t know that this particular bill could have gone differently in the moment, but are Democrats going to get their messaging right in order to win seats?
I honestly have no idea what the party’s vision for the country is. They’re not on the same page on health care, on minimum wage, on labor, on taxes, etc. etc. The GOP at least has a consistent and simple, if morally bankrupt, vision. All indications so far are that the 2018 elections will mostly be run as a referendum on Trump and nothing more.
If and when the Democrats take back control, are they just going to undo some of the worst things in this bill, or are they really going to do what’s right?
One example – when the Democrats controlled in 2009, the House voted 345-75 to defund ACORN and the Senate voted 83-7. Even when in power the Democrats have trouble controlling the debate. The people are on our side. We should start acting like it.
jconway says
I’m in the middle on these two narratives. I’m a DSA sympathizer and even I am getting sick of their leap to blame intraparty rivals for everything wrong. Just as annoying as the people on the other side blaming Bernie for everything. Enough! Let’s work together to beat back this bad stuff. We could elect Doug Jones now and make that 51-49. We could actually run credible candidates against Collins for once instead of always giving her a pass.
We absolutely need to run against tax increases and focus like a laser on the kitchen table reasons this is a bad bill and hang it around their necks next fall.
We should totally hang it around Baker’s neck and be specific about why.
This has nothing to do with Trump. Rubio would’ve passed this shit too. The GOP
was anti-middle class and relied on racist electoral strategies long before the Donald hijacked it. I think we lose sight of that sometimes since he is a unique brand of horrible, but this pining for a reasonable Republican Party is a historic and a waste of time. Crush it and define it as evil. Define its policies as evil. It’s how elections are won.
jconway says
But yeah honestly I don’t care about some sub amendment Warner voted for. He voted against this along with every Dem in the Senate. Remember several Democrats voted for the Dubya tax cuts. Getting them to zero is quite an accomplishment. Manchin and Heitkamp are annoying but they are more progressive than Lieberman in far more hostile territory. The real fight should be pushing O’Rourke over the top against Cruz, pushing Jones over Moore, and catching enough breaks to swing both houses back.
I am honestly convinced if we can’t win in 2018 we are doomed to have two years of Trump.
doubleman says
@jconway On this issue of the amendment votes, check out Warren’s recent Twitter feed and the Dems breaking on all these votes. https://twitter.com/SenWarren
It kinda makes a cynic wonder if there are more than a few Democratic senators who didn’t give a shit about this tax bill (and maybe even liked it) so they weren’t willing to make it a real fight.
bob-gardner says
Deficit financed, so tax breaks for the children of billionaires will be paid by the children and grandchildren of the working class.
seamusromney says
I don’t own a house, so I’m pretty happy with it.