Conditions are incredibly favorable, by all accounts. Generic Dem is way ahead of Generic Republican. So what is our message for 2018?
And yes, this is more or less a pretext to mention the Countdown Clock. I love it, but honestly, the seconds (in red no less) are a little distracting.
Please share widely!
JimC says
Fun from the Post (note the Deval mention).
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2017/12/22/the-top-15-democratic-presidential-candidates-for-2020-ranked/
hesterprynne says
Looking ahead at the state level, longtime Representative Jim Miceli (D- Wilmington) is going to have a Republican challenger, Pina Prinzivalli.
Rep. Miceli has represented the DINO wing of the Democratic party since he was first elected to the House in 1976 (the first Dukakis administration). He earned a D- grade from Progressive Massachusetts for his record during the 2015-2016 session. This session he sponsored bills to restore the death penalty and to underscore that gun possession is an individual civil right. During the debate on criminal justice reform he was one of six Democratic representatives to vote in favor of a Republican amendment imposing a mandatory minimum prison sentence of five years for anyone who distributed a drug that resulted in the death of the user.
Lots of us BMG’ers have said that we’d trade a DINO for a Republican if such a trade would add to the philosophical consistency of the Democrats in the Legislature. Looks like we might have an opportunity in 2018. We good?
JimC says
Hmm. I don’t think I said that, but I may have said a healthier opposition would be healthy.
We used to say “Lots of Mass. Democrats would be Republicans elsewhere,” but in most cases I’m not sure that’s even true anymore. Where do they have moderate Republicans?
jconway says
I’ve made that argument. Judging by her website (https://www.pinaforyou.com/issues) she won’t be a substantial improvement on the issues. Yet, at least she’s honest she’s a Republican and she’d be one less vote for DeLeo. If more Republicans beat DINO’s in conservative districts we would actually have a more progressive house with a more workable majority. Challenging conservatives like Toomey or Shortsleeve in moderate-liberal districts in primaries would also move the House to the left and endanger DeLeo’s rule.
Incidentally, he’s already announced he’s running for another term as Speaker, giving lie to his previous argument that eliminating the term limits was a temporary move to keep the House relevant with a Republican Governor. One of my contacts in the House told me he will stay in office through 2021 so his pension will be fully vested and then quit midterm to ensure a hand picked successor succeeds him in the special. We will see.
I had a fun phone call with Charles Spears (http://www.lowellsun.com/news/ci_26776332/miceli-sears-trade-sharp-jabs-tewksbury-state-rep), the last Republican to run against Miceli. He did so from the left. He’s the nephew of the late John Spears (https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_W._Sears) one of the last Republicans to find electoral success in Suffolk County. I tried recruiting him for the UIP but he said a Tea Party Republican would have a better shot, as his progressive stances on guns, choice, and gay marriage hurt rather than helped him in that district. We will see if Pina proves that prediction right.
Christopher says
I think Generic Dem has led Generic GOP in almost every cycle since 1994 so I tend to take that magna cum grana salis.
Speaking of 1994 if the GOP could nationalize that election on a platform of basically we will oppose Clinton at every turn, surely we can do the same against Trump in 2018. I wouldn’t go as far as vote for me and I’ll vote to impeach before I unpack my bags, but we do need a message of strong opposition and oversight of a whole host of policies, practices, and nominees.
jconway says
Your skepticism is warranted but Vox and Upshot have pointed out why it’s a huge double digit advantage unique to this kind of polling (https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2017/12/21/16803050/latest-2018-midterms-polling-extremely-good-democrats). One that is apparently putting 35-40 seats up for grabs. We have also attracted over 200 credible challengers this cycle. So if a wave forms there will be bodies to ride it to victory.
Negative partisanship toward the toxic Trump WH may be enough to lift the Democrats to a midterm victory but it won’t be enough to beat the President in 2020 without a compelling alternative.
Romney and Kerry weren’t able to take advantage of the poor polling of their incumbents, and the 94′ drubbing left no 96′ coattails for Bob Dole.
Christopher says
I notice the clock comes with an ActBlue link for “BMG’s slate of progressives”. This is the first I’m hearing of it. How were they chosen and why is none from MA?
Charley on the MTA says
I chose them myself! And as I said, I’m completely open to suggestions. All I’ve got right now is a slate of funds supporting primary winners in certain districts.
jconway says
Since no one in our delegation is facing a credible Republican challenger? Charley’s post makes it clear that it’s the three races closest to us in NH, ME, and NY along with Randy Bryce trying to unseat Paul Ryan. He also said we can pitch in with our own suggestions.
Christopher says
MA-03 is not a sure thing without an incumbent, though I guess I thought state races would be our focus anyway.