[Bumped — Charley]
OK, we’re coming up to it so it’s time for final thoughts on the state primary. I would be interested in both your preferences and predictions. There are lots of contested primaries on the Dem side this year, to wit:
- Governor, LG, SoC
- US House – CD3 open, incumbents facing challenges in CDs 1, 4, 7, 8, & 9
- Governor’s Council – incumbents facing challenges in districts 3, 4, & 5
- State Senate – districts BHFH, 2EM, Hampden, 1&5MI, NBM, PB
- State House – 1BA; 2&11BR; 6,11,14,&16ES; 1FR; 9Hampden; 1,2,&3Hampshre; 3,14,15,18,19,23,25,28,30,&36MI; 13&15NO; 4&7PL; 4,5,9,11,12,14,&15SU; 8&17WO
- County Commissioners in Bristol and Dukes
- Clerks of Courts in Dukes and Suffolk-Civil
- Registers of Deeds in Essex North, Essex South, Suffolk, and Worcester North
- District Attorneys in Berkshire, Northern (aka Middlesex), and Suffolk
- Register of Probate in Dukes
If you really want to make things interesting, or are differently-winged, include the GOP which does have the following contested primaries:
- US Senator, Governor, and AG
- 2nd and 5th US House districts
- 5th Barnstable; 19th Middlesex; 4th, 7th, & 12th Plymouth; and 8th Worcester State House districts
- Worcester Register of Deeds
There is some sad news from the Zakim campaign as one of his volunteers was struck and killed while campaigning.
I thought a post like this might get more traction:( You can also use it to document your observations at the polls today.
I was voter number 390 at Ward 5, precinct 2 in Somerville at 12:15pm.
The poll workers said that turnout is “very heavy all over town.”
I voted in the following contested races:
– Governor: Bob Massie
– Lt. Governor: Quentin Palfrey
– Sec of State: Josh Zakim
– Representative in Congress: Mike Capuano
As piece of incidental trivia, Mike Capuano is from my ward (Ward 5).
Can somebody pass along a twitter feed or some similar reliable source of information about primary results after the polls close tonight?
I doubt that today’s election will make any news broadcasts.
Looks like NYTimes covers all Beacon Hill races. Vox and Politico are only set up for major races.
@skoczela of the MassINC polling group has a really interesting feed. Apparently turnout in Boston is very high today — not too surprising with MA7 and several competitive state rep races.
These maps are really cool. Turnout exceeding 2014 state primary levels in Boston.
Stunning results. Pressley is impressive enough, but honestly people have been imagining her stepping up to higher office for a long time.
I’m more dazzled by Elugardo toppling Sanchez, Jon Santiago taking out Byron Rushing, People need to talk about what this means for Bob DeLeo. He made those guys walk the plank for him.
…. and Rollins winning Suffolk DA. Massive.
The last woman to represent the City of Boston in the House was Louise Day Hicks. This is such a transformative election.
Congrats to Tommy Vitolo who will also be joining these Young Turks on Beacon Hill!
Tommy’s now my rep. Voted for him. Now impress me by being as unlike Frank Smizik as possible (start with not backing DeLeo).
I am going to comment on the last- and least- of these races, the Republican primary for Worcester County Register of Deeds. This race featured two Republican state reps facing off, and a subsequent retirement by Anthony Vigliotti, first elected in 1972. My understanding early on was that the Republican establishment was behind Kevin Kuros, but my purely anecdotal take was that Campanale did more campaigning. I didn’t see a Kuros sign until I passed one in a rotary in Gardner today. Now, with almost 70% reporting, Campanale is at 68%. The Democratic nominee is Katie Toomey.
It goes without saying, Gonzalez-Palfrey is our ticket for Governor. Drawing more votes than Charlie Baker who is narrowly cracking 65% against anti gay bigot and gadfly candidate Scott Lively. Trumpist Diehl renominated. Baker is still the favorite, but there’s now an outside chance his base stays home while our base stays fired up.
Globe and Times call it for Galvin. I give him credit for moving to the left this primary and finally embracing same day voter registration and automatic voter registration. That old ward heeler is only leaving his office in a pine box. Josh ran an erratic campaign, but somebody had to do it. I don’t see a more credible challenger emerging anytime soon.
Hearty congratulations are due Tommy Vitolo, who will raise the game on Beacon Hill.
I’m very glad that we Democrats have hit Bob DeLeo upside the head with a two-by-four. We can only hope he gets the message. The defeat of both Mr. Sanchez and Mr. Rushing is excellent news for progressives in Massachusetts.
I am, of course, disappointed by the outcome in CD-7. I hope and pray that Ms. Pressley is able to fill the very large shoes she has now stepped into. I will, of course, vote for her in November. My particular and parochial concern is that the GLX continues on-track after this change.
I’m also disappointed (but not surprised, frankly) to see that Ms. Garry crushed Ms. Heisey. I’m actually hoping that Mr. Leczynski (her GOP opponent) is able to unseat her in November. I’d rather see the district represented by an actual Republican than by a “Democrat” who acts and votes like a Republican. If nothing else, the election of Mr. Leczynski would be one less vote in support of Mr. DeLeo.
All in all, I think this is a great night for Massachusetts Democrats.
Don’t think you’ve got to worry about the GLX from the federal level. Money’s been allocated. Plus, Capuano was never a big GLX booster – floated reducing it to commuter rail stops a few years back and let is slide in the 90s when he was major. I’d worry about the state pulling the rug if Curtatone wasn’t mayor.
Appreciate your magnanimous congratulations Tom. I think we saw a tidal wave of progressive energy defeat longtime incumbents who lost touch, in their own way, with their activist roots and the communities they were sent to represent. I particularly point this criticism at Rushing and Sanchez, and hope their defeats show progressives that the price of access on Beacon Hill is too high a price to pay if it means compromising our core principles to get it.
I exempt Capuano who simply got out campaigned. There were Ayanna door knockers all over Boston, Cambridge, and Somerville these past few weeks. I got canvassed twice on the street in two different neighborhoods-including by an old friend I haven’t seen since 8th grade. They sent my wife and I two mailers a piece.
I got zero contacts from the Capuano campaign, despite having once applied for an internship in his office and donating money for his Senate campaign. She hit the pavement while he hit the airwaves. I believe that kind of grassroots leadership has already helped her skip the line and she can do so in the House leadership as well.
Capuano’s concession was an exercise in grace, humility, and a nod to the nights history. I do hope he remains involved in his community and expect him to stay active locally in state politics as well.
This also puts DeLeo, Lynch, and even Ed Markey on notice. Lydia Edwards lives in DeLeo’s district and has already campaigned there twice in prior elections. Briannna Wu admitted her unorthodox methods and lack of local support did her in, with a real campaign infrastructure she or another challenger could have an outside shot. Maybe Sonia Chang Diaz can move a few blocks over to the Lynch side of JP.
Like Capuano, Markey has a great voting record. Like Capuano, he hasn’t had to seriously campaign in the last twenty years. There will be a lot of young progressives taking a look at that race tonight too.
Ed Markey?
I think you are way off base. Not all white male progressive pols are the same.
Ed Markey is strongly identified with two key issues, net neutrality and energy (including climate change), as a progressive force.
I’ve never thought of Capuano in that way. I think that made him vulnerable in a way that Markey is not.
On my way into work this morning, I though that Capuano would have done better if he were a national leader on something in the same way. If he were more like…Ed Markey.
Also, obviously, the 7th is pretty different from the state demographically. Identity politics more likely to backfire than anything else.
PS Markey campaigned pretty seriously to get his current job 5 years ago. He beat a guy named Stephen Lynch, who is no pushover.
Lynch was doomed from the get go due to his stance on abortion. Markey clobbered him 65-35. Despite being underfunded, unknown, and disliked by his base, Gomez still held Markey to under 55% of the vote in that same general. I think a younger and more charismatic candidate could give him trouble. Perhaps not another woman of color, but certainly a Healey, Moulton, or Kennedy are looking twice at that race after tonight. My money is Ed calls it quits in 2020. The people I know who were excited about Pressley know next to nothing about Markey, a big part of her success was winning over voters new to Boston or voters normally inactive in primaries.
Is it because we don’t have enough Republicans in MA to keep us entertained that we start fantasizing about which Democrats we can knock off for sport? I really don’t like the way this seems to be going.
I’d add Wu to the list of potential Senate challengers. Possibly Clark too. I agree there’s likely to be a lot of people who look at 2018 as a call to get off your butt and stop waiting. Healey would be the most interesting of the group because it would open up the Governor’s race in 2022 (assuming she won the Senate seat – though I suppose losing a Senate race might make her vulnerable if she then tried for Governor – though that assumes Gonzalez doesn’t pull an upset this year – damn, I’m wandering here).
It’s ironic that the Rep who should have been most vulnerable, Lynch, skated by with ease this time. Hopefully he gets a much stiffer test (from someone who knows how to campaign) next time around.
Plus, Capuano tried a Senate bid after Kennedy died and got swamped by Martha Coakley. Important to remember Capuano won the seat with 22% of the vote in a crowded Dem primary in 1998 and didn’t have to defend it against stiff competition for 20 years.
He never actually built a political machine that had to deliver the majority of the district. So he was starting from scratch, even more so than Pressley, who had a Boston operation. He had name, record and money, but I think we just re-learned a lesson about organization.
And though all politics is local, the Congress is more local than the senate.
Marty Walsh should be sweating. Things can change in three years, but I think I see a Wu Train bearing down on him. Though I suppose she could just go for Senate.
And her GOTV operation and endorsement for Pressley carried more weight with Boston voters then Walsh’s for Capuano. She would be a very formidable opponent and make an excellent Mayor.
It has crossed my mind that Mr. Capuano might consider running against Mr. Markey when the time comes.
CD-3 is incredible. First and second are tied, and third, fourth, and fifth are relatively close behind and also tied.
Seems like a pretty great argument for ranked choice voting.
I am not in the district but was rooting for L’Italien. Now I’m strongly rooting for Trahan to hold on through a recount.
The thing that really surprised me about the Trahan campaign is how little she talked about being Meehan’s CoS, preferring instead to focus on starting a business. If I had her resume I would be shouting from the rooftops that I have congressional experience unmatched by other candidates which includes everything except personally flipping the switch on the House floor.
Notes from the Pioneer Valley
I worked hard for my friend Marie McCourt who ran for state representative. She excelled at retail politics, garnering by far the largest number of organizational endorsements. She knocked the ball out of the park at forums. But in the end, being from a small town split into two districts mean that she had no electoral base to count on. The winner, Dan Carey, is a well-connected guy (works for the DA, dad is on the SJC, cousin is register of probate) from Easthampton which he won with 60% of the vote. From a candidate point of view (she outperformed her opponents at forums and in endorsements), Marie deserved to win, but it’s very hard to convince enough people to abandon their local candidate. Each of the three candidates won their own town. Marie came in second, which suggests she made an impression.
Neal and Amatul-Wadud
The lack of simple, clear identity makes it more difficult for a candidate to gain ground. When there are too many questions about the what’s and why’s of a candidate, she will have a hard time. As an African American who belongs to the Nation of Islam and wears a hijab, Amatul-Wadud was a political newcomer and a relative unknown. Although racism or Islamaphobia can’t be discounted, there was no evidence of it in the contest. Demographics is not destiny, but they are a factors and they can pile up.
One national, liberal website lumped this race in with Pressley-Capuano and Ocasio-Cortez-Crowley. In both those races, however, the electoral demographics had changed. This was true, particularly for Ocasio-Cortez. Western Massachusetts, frankly, has not changed much. We have strong liberal pockets (Amherst & Northampton), but as a whole, Western Massachusetts is probably older, definitely more white, and (my guess) less organized than Pressley’s or Ocasio’s districts.
Progressives Elected Where You’d Expect
Jo Comerford will replace Stan Rosenberg. The former campaign director at MoveOn who worked on the Sander campaign was endorsed by almost every establishment Democrat in the area. She won a write-in campaign over competitor Chelsea KIine.
Lindsey Sabadosa defeated Peter Kocot’s former aide, in spite of the latter receiving several prominent endorsements.
What’s a Primary?
Voter turnout was pretty high for a primary in Granby, close to 20%. There were so many people voting that many had no idea what a primary was and were confused when they couldn’t vote for both Republicans AND a Democrats. One woman stopped where I was holding a sign and told me we should change the bylaws that prevent people from voting for candidate from both parties in the election.
Lessons?
Voters are restive. They may not understand what a primary is, but gosh darn it, they’re going to vote just the same.
Progressives are motivated. Even when their chances are slim, they are not afraid of mounting a challenge.
White men still have a lot of advantages in politics, but women and people of color are on the rise and taking their rightful place in the political process.
Why do you rate Comerford a surprise for that district? I was out there recently and her name was on everyone’s lips. Her signs were everywhere.
I didn’t think she was a surprise. I think she was the favorite. She was endorsed by the entire Democratic establishment.
FYI, in my town, Franklin, Lively got 31% of the Republican vote. He got 27.67% of the vote back in April at the state convention. In other words, Trump and all the filth that goes with him is alive and well and growing in Franklin.
The media has a problem reporting on him. My own NPR affiliate referred to him as a “conservative.” I sent an email and the news director got back to me, acknowledged they could do better. Lively’s got blood on his hands from his preaching in Africa. Conservative doesn’t cut it.
I wouldn’t say that everyone who voted for him supported his agenda, however. I’m guessing that there were some protest votes against Baker from people who are less than careful about their voting.