Todays Emerson College / News 7 poll confirms strategy of Trump / Putin to divide Democrats : Will you support the Democratic nominee even if it is not your candidate? Yes: 72% ; No: 13% / Depends on who the candidate is : 15%.
Candidates supporters: Yes %
Warren 90
Biden 87
Buttigieg 86
Bloomberg 78
Sanders 53
Yang 50
This is confirmation of my worst fear. That we will turn against each other and ensure the death of democracy/rise of fascism here and around the world.
Please share widely!
doubleman says
I think that this means that you should vote for Sanders if you really want to defeat Trump. Sanders has supporters who won’t go Blue No Matter Who, and it seems incredibly dangerous to try to rely on castigating them to bring them along.
Moreover, Sanders performs best with the voters we need to win. He laps everyone else with young people, especially young people of color. He has more overall support from people of color than any other candidate. He performs best with independents. When asked, the same number of African-American voters say they would vote for Sanders as say they would vote for Biden (yes, older AA voters prefer Biden as first choice at the moment). He is performing as well as Biden or better in national and battleground state matchup polling. He is the only candidate beating Trump in the most recent matchup poll in Florida. He’s got the most money and best ability to raise money. He has the most donors, the most donations, and is doing the most outreach (5,000,000 calls to early state voters from Jan 1-Jan 15).
You’ve always said your top priority is defeating Trump, so what are you waiting for?
Do you want to win? Do you want progressive policies? Or do you just want a party standard-bearer as the nominee?
fredrichlariccia says
So, you won’t support the Democratic nominee doubleman?
doubleman says
In a state where my individual vote will not and could not decide the electoral votes of the state, I will not cast a vote for someone I think is dangerous or unfit to lead our country in 2020. I would make a different decision in a different state. I will donate time and money to organizations that work to protect voting rights, register voters, and help elect progressive candidates. I will not donate time and money to the specific campaign of a candidate I strongly disagree with.
fredrichlariccia says
Right, doubleman. So, for the record, you will not support the Democratic nominee.
SomervilleTom says
I don’t like the poll results either, and I don’t like the Bernie Sanders campaign.
I fall in that 15% “It depends on who the candidate is” bin.
I don’t dislike Joe Biden as much as I did before I learned of his lifelong struggle with a speech disorder. That struggle does indeed explain a great many of his awkward moments captured on video.
While I’m not as extreme as doubleman seems to be, I won’t vote for Joe Biden in November if he is the nominee. I’ll write in Goofy, just as I did for John Kerry (who I also did not support, but for different reasons).
I feel fortunate that I have that freedom — it’s one of the reasons I like living in MA. If I lived in a state where it matters, I would hold my nose and vote the ticket. I’m thankful that I don’t have to do that here.
Of course I would never EVER vote for a Republican, even if Jesus, Mary, or Joseph was the candidate.
fredrichlariccia says
So, what candidate would you vote for if they were the nominee?
fredrichlariccia says
So, SomervilleTom, you will vote for Goofy over Biden just as you did in 2004 against Kerry? Is that right?
SomervilleTom says
Indeed, at least that’s what I would do today.
As I said, I’m less hostile to him today than I was a few months ago. Still, I profoundly differ with him on a relatively long list of issues — most importantly, wealth concentration and his lifelong affinity for big banks and mortgage companies.
fredrichlariccia says
So this is why you are only supporting Warren, right?
SomervilleTom says
Actually, I’ll happily vote for any of the current candidates except Mr. Biden.
Well, I guess I’d also choose Goofy instead of the two billionaires.
fredrichlariccia says
So, you’d vote for Gabbard, Yang or Goofy over Biden, Bloomberg or Steyer?
SomervilleTom says
I assume that Ms. Gabbard and Mr. Yang will be out of the running by the time I have to vote.
I’ll choose Goofy over them as well.
I was referring to candidates who, for example, qualify to be on the debate stage (for debates that I’ve quit watching because they’re so content-free).
fredrichlariccia says
In 2000, 90,000 Florida Nader HTTP’s refused to support Gore because he was “no better than Bush” who “won” by 500 votes.
Thanks for nothing, morons.,
jconway says
Ranked choice voting eliminates that problem once and for all, and is something our MA votes will actually count toward this fall.
doubleman says
That’s right, and to be more specific, I will not cast a vote for Joe Biden, Pete Buttigieg, or Michael Bloomberg in the general election.
Being better than Trump ain’t enough.
fredrichlariccia says
So, would you vote for Yang, Gabbard, Steyer, Sanders or Warren if they were the nominee?
doubleman says
Sanders and Warren. I don’t think the others will be in contention.
fredrichlariccia says
So Sanders or Warren are the only candidates you would vote for if they are nominee? Is that right?
doubleman says
Yes. I think I have been clear.
fredrichlariccia says
Got it. So Sanders or Warren are the only candidates you would support if they are the nominee.
doubleman says
I’m a leftist. Not a Democrat.
I will cast votes in the general for those two and also spend time and money on actions helping to elect and enact progressive policies.
fredrichlariccia says
When you say you are not a Democrat,, does that mean you are registered as an unenrolled voter as I don’t think there is a leftist party?
SomervilleTom says
@leftist, not Democrat
Fair enough. We are talking about the DEMOCRATIC nominee, not the nominee of the “Leftist” party or even the “Socialist” party.
I think that’s a perfectly defensible position. I think it makes your argument that Mr. Sanders should be the DEMOCRATIC nominee less convincing.
fredrichlariccia says
My point exactly. If you aren’t a Democrat, why should you expect to have any credibility in determining who the Democratic nominee should be?
doubleman says
I register as a Democrat to the extent needed to vote in primaries where I live. I have no involvement in the party as an organ. I am active in campaigns of mostly democrats when they align with my political views. The leadership of the party does not generally align with my views.
Why don’t I become more involved with the party and try to change it from the inside? Given limited time and resources I dedicate it to other causes that I think are more effective uses of time.
Pulling any kind of “he’s not a democrat” stuff is seriously outrageous when the majority of Americans are not members of, and often have severe disdain for the parties.
Sanders is the candidate most aligned with my views and the one I think with the best chance to win and become President. I don’t care how much any candidate is actively aligned with the inner workings of the party apparatus.
fredrichlariccia says
So, would it be fair to call you a “cafeteria democrat’, who picks and chooses when to support candidates like Sanders who align with your ‘leftist’ ideology?
doubleman says
Call me what you want. I don’t care. I think the party is largely bad. It’s better than the other one, but that’s about it.
fredrichlariccia says
Barney Frank said: “We’re not perfect, but they’re crazy.”
Better than nuts is a no brainer.
doubleman says
I don’t like Barney Frank. :/
fredrichlariccia says
I really don’t give a rats anus whether you like Barney Frank or not. What he said is true. Like that.
doubleman says
I don’t disagree with it, but quotes like that from folks like that don’t hold any great weight for me. It’s not going to make me embrace the party.
fredrichlariccia says
You don’t disagree means you agree but it doesn’t matter because you disapprove of the person who said the thing you agree with.
Right. Got it.
Your failure to embrace us is a great loss to the Democratic party. 🙁
doubleman says
wtf Fred. I said that someone like Frank saying something true isn’t going to add more weight to it for me. The Republican party is worse, much worse. That DOES NOT make the Democratic party absolutely good or something that I’d want to dedicate my life to.
The binary thinking that if one thing is better than some other then that thing must be good is ridiculous.
Here’s an example to try and make it clear.
Bob Deleo is better than Trump. Bob Deleo is still awful and I’d never support him.
I will vote for Democrats most of the time. Not all of the time. The Democratic party is not entitled to my votes.
But – the question still stands for you. If your main goal is to beat Trump and that is what lead you to support Biden, are you reconsidering that given the available evidence?
Christopher says
Barney Frank has also said that the only candidate he ever voted for he completely agreed with was himself, and even that was only the first time he ran. I’m glad doubleman lives in MA. I do wish he’d help change the party from the inside, but I for one have said all along that if you really can’t stomach a nominee for one office focus your energies on a different office. However, saying you’d better vote for Sanders precisely because his supporters won’t necessarily support the nominee sounds a bit more like holding the nomination process hostage than I’m comfortable with. In states where the presidential vote does matter yes, the fact of the other viable choice being Trump is really all you should need to know this time. Sulking over not getting your choice is NOT an option!
doubleman says
Is it better to make that argument now or try to make it in the general election and twist the arms of people who don’t care for the nominee? People have no qualms about making those threats in a general.
It’s funny that Democrats will look at the numbers for Sanders on this issue of people staying home and they get irrationally mad about it. Why not embrace it as an opportunity? If you’re truly happy to vote for whomever, then it shouldn’t really matter to you as much.
I think everyone should vote for the candidate they think is best. I’m just saying that if your criteria for “best” is “able to beat Trump” then I think there’s a stronger argument for Bernie over Biden. But if you think Biden has the best ideas and will be the best President, then sure, go ahead (I have to admit, however, that I rarely see that as the argument for Joe).
Christopher says
My criterion is best actual President with electability coming into play only if my ideal candidate really seemed to have no shot.
jconway says
I think you should give Amy Klobuchar another look. She’s younger than Biden but way more experienced than Pete, with a track record of winning in the places that matter. I might be the only person outside the Times Ed board who thought they did a good job, but they are right. The women did their policy homework, the men talk in platitudes. The most qualified progressive is Warren and the most qualified moderate is Klobuchar. Did you read the Times interview of Biden? He’s really lost a step or two, the only issue he remained fluent in was foreign policy.
Christopher says
I can’t tell if that was for me given the lack of nesting. I thought the NYT double endorsement was inspired, but I’m sticking with Biden on experience. Klobuchar strikes me as just another Senator. There’s no way you can compare that against an active VP with a 30-year Senate career that included chairing the key committee of Foreign Relations and Judiciary.
jconway says
It’s the height of arrogance for a Sanders supporter to make the electability argument you make above while also insisting Bernie or bust for the general. So if he’s not our first choice, we have to suck it up, but if it’s not your first choice, you won’t? Screw that. It’s this personality cult aspect of it that bothers more. I met Sanders, voted for Sanders, could vote for him again, and generally think he’s a fine addition to this primary process. It’s his supporters I can’t stand anymore.
bob-gardner says
I for one have had enough of Fred and his Manfred Roeder routine. I commented about this yesterday but my comment is awaiting moderation so I’ll rewrite it here. Gosh, golly Fred, picking and choosing candidates is the whole idea of democracy. Making party loyalty paramount is what they did in the Soviet Union.
jconway says
I want a contest and not a coronation, but a contest of this sort only has one winner and if he happens to be Biden or Bernie, he will have my support.
SomervilleTom says
With apologies to Dr. Seuss:
I don’t like Bernie Sanders.
I don’t like him on Monday, I don’t like him on Friday, I don’t like him today.
I don’t like him up north and I don’t like him down south
I don’t like him
@Sanders has supporters who won’t go Blue No Matter Who, and it seems incredibly dangerous to try to rely on castigating them to bring them along:
In other words, Bernie Sanders attracts supporters who are self-centered, bullying, and arrogant. I don’t like that stance in anybody regardless of party.
doubleman says
Sure. Some. All campaigns do. A lot is made of “BernieBros” but those types of folks are part of all campaigns (remember PUMAs in 2008, or you should see the #KHive folks now, hoo boy, and, of course, the very very popular #NeverBernie crew).
What the campaign also attracts are people not regularly or previously engaged in politics because they think that both parties offer them little to improve their lives and their communities. And those who think that electoral action is generally not a place for change so they are active in other areas.
If we want to get rid of Trump, it seems like going with a campaign that engages these people gives a better chance of winning than campaigns that repel these people.
SomervilleTom says
@people not regularly or previously engaged in politics:
I agree that this segment is drawn to Mr. Sanders
@a campaign that engages these people gives a better chance of winning than campaigns that repel these people.:
The argument you make defeats the core argument presented by Mr. Sanders about how he will accomplish his “political revolution” of America.
The people “not regularly or previously engaged in politics” at best might turn out one day in November.
The people needed to drive a political revolution are those who are signed up rather than committed for the agenda of that revolution. I refer to the venerable chestnut that says “The chicken is committed to a ham-and-eggs breakfast. The pig is signed up.”
I think there is compelling evidence that the segment you effuse about are people who, for whatever reasons, are far more likely to revert to their lifelong apathy or contempt for politics than become warriors in a political revolution.
There will be many setbacks in any journey to address the profound challenges we face. Some of those setbacks will require our leadership to either pause or even retreat for a short time — that is the nature of politics. I think the people you’re talking about are men and women who will turn and flee at the first setback, citing the “betrayal” they feel when the world doesn’t go their way.
doubleman says
I don’t disagree with most of this.
I think the disaffected are needed to win an election, and yes, many, most would probably revert back to inactivity. But amongst the active supporters, there are many committed to long-term activism (they already do it, outside of electoral politics). The revolution may not happen to fundamentally change politics, but what we’ve seen over the past few years on the left has been more encouraging than anything since the 60s. Sanders promises to be an Organizer in Chief, so this activity won’t stop when he is in office. It won’t be like Obama who let the coalition fall apart to get down to the adult stuff of governing. Sanders needs constant outside pressure for everything. Whether he can make that happen is absolutely an open question and one on which I have many doubts. What I don’t doubt is that he has a far better chance to do it than anyone else running.
And I think Sanders would be able to sell compromise deals and manage disappointment better than any other candidate.
jconway says
I think you’ve made a strong case here but it’s undermined by the “my guy or the highway” attitude you and many other “Bernie or Bust” supporters have adopted. I think the real reason he struggles with black voters (although he’s closed the gap with Biden better than anyone else running) is because he’s a newcomer to big D Democratic Politics. Biden has a lot of issues, but he’s been a team player campaigning for a diverse crop of Democrats since he got into the Senate. Bernie is more of a loner, which troubles me.
Sometimes I worry he’s a team of one with a hardcore 20% of the primary electorate behind him. Not enough to win a general, but enough to win a primary. It’s the Bernie or Bust attitude the candidate has to overcome in order to be the second choice for non-Biden candidates as they begin to drop out. If Bernie wants to get to 50%+1 of Democrats, his supporters can’t keep crapping on everybody else running against him. To the candidates credit, he has run a largely positive campaign. I just find a lot of the hostility against Warren and Biden to be misplaced, Trump is the real enemy. The inverse applies to the “anybody but Bernie” Democrats our there too. Everyone needs to come together after this ends.
doubleman says
The polls show that is not the case. Frankly, Bernie likely does better in a general than he does in a Dem primary with his popularity among independents and among non-regular voters. All the matchup polls show this. The silly controversy about support from Joe Rogan* supports that. Bernie appeals to a larger base.
As much as people want to complain about Bernie supporters, the fact is that Bernie has the highest favorability ratings among Democrats of the remaining candidates. In the online world, people get mad at the aggressive supporters. In the real world, no one cares and they still like the guy.
*Bernie should not have boosted this from the campaign. The fact that a problematic guy with a huge audience supports Bernie with Bernie changing his positions in no way whatsoever to get this support is an incredible strength. It’s funny to now see orgs like HRC or people like Biden make an issue of trans rights. Given their records, they are showing their *ss.
jconway says
I’ve long noted he’s been a force for good in bringing independents and non-voters into the primary process. I’ve also consistently said he’s more appealing than Warren in a general election. He and Biden are equally appealing to the electorate and to one another’s supporters for some reason. I think one of my main concerns is whether he can unite the party behind his candidacy. You seem to think Trump will do that work for him, but you yourself acknowledged Trump is not enough to get you to vote for Biden were he to win the nomination.
If this race comes down to the wire and the winner wins by a few percentage points in key primaries, I hope we can all rally behind the nominee. I think there is a greater risk Bernie supporters bolt if Sanders does not win than the inverse, and that is what is concerning to me. The way his surrogates have treated Warren, particularly Jacobin, when they are inches away from each other on the main issues is further proof of that concern.
How do you think Bernie can unite the party? Especially since any nominee in a four/five way field is looking at winning with 30% at best.
Christopher says
You think Sanders is more appealing than Warren in a general? That’s a bit counterintuitive to me. I’ve thought if anything Warren could be the bridge between Sanders and Biden supporters. She is more practical and identifies as capitalist.
jconway says
I agree with the bridge analysis which is why I thought she was a likelier and stronger nominee. Her strength is that she is an establishment friendly Democrat advancing a radically progressive agenda. Kind of a real life insiders outsider. Bernie has the same problem McCain 2000 had. Independents and irregular voters like him better than his own party. So while McCain was more electable, Bush had more solid Republican support.
Bernie consistently polls as more electable in a general than Warren, but for awhile she was ahead of him in the national primary polls. I expected a similar dynamic with Warren, but unfortunately other issues got in her way. Like Harris and Booker, she fell into an odd bucket of being too liberal for the establishment and too much of an insider for the lefty populists.
jconway says
For the record I hold #NeverBernie to the same level of contempt I hold for #Bernieorbust. The stakes are too high for anyone to help Trump by being a sore loser.
bob-gardner says
This is all really inconsistent. If you really want to implement a strategy of electability, you should be trying to attract voters who you might otherwise lose. That means taking them seriously.
Do you really think that the self-righteous patronizing exhibited on this thread will attract anyone? The amount of hostility toward voters expressed is just astounding, especially since nobody has even had the chance to vote this election cycle.
Maybe there should be a bunch of BMG canvassers going door to door with this message. You could tell them that the party has gone to great length to put up an electable candidate, so they better not mess things up.. You could explain to the voters that if they even consider not sticking with whoever the convention picks this summer, that they are i morally inferior to the great thinkers on this blog…
jconway says
I actually agree with you that it’s patronizing to demand voters fall in line before the first vote is taken. I’ve pushed back against this blogs anti-Bernie bias through two primaries now. I also think the Bernie supporters have to play by the same rules.
Double man is essentially making the same argument as Fred. Only my candidate is electable and y’all better suck it up and vote for them in the general. My point is, none of us have any idea who is or isn’t electable anymore. So It’s better to vote your conscience than vote for the Democrat you think is most palatable to Republicans.
I think those of us who support Warren over Sanders are doing so because we think she’d be the better president, and Biden or Bernie supporters relying on early polling to try and convince us that we should not vote our consciences are barking up the wrong tree. Lately whenever I talk to a Warren supporter I want to vote for Bernie and whenever I talk to a Bernie supporter I want to vote for Warren. The supporters are becoming the candidates worst enemy.
Christopher says
I wish we would drop strategy in favor of just voting for the person we want, especially since all of the top tier have paths to 270. Plus given that the nomination is largely decided by the popular vote whoever gets the nomination will have by definition proven electability. Those who are most particular better also turn out in the primaries to influence the process.
jconway says
Ranked choice voting would help significantly with that. Also the electoral college and Senate have a center-right structural bias, so Democrats have to run closer to the center than the GOP in order to win.
petr says
The logic of the Bernie Sanders supporter here (such as it is) seems to rely upon the certainty of someone who will vote for an angry sexist old white guy and to hell with everyone else.
So… Trump in all but name.
I wouldn’t count that as a ‘win’ in any circumstance.
doubleman says
The sexist claim is too stupid to engage.
SomervilleTom says
@The sexist claim is too stupid to engage:
In other words, you disagree.
petr says
You wish
Christopher says
I’m fairly certain Biden performs better among people of color than any candidate by a comfortable margin. He also does better against Trump according to polls than any candidate, especially in key states.
doubleman says
Nope. Only among African Americans because of a large lead among older AA voters. He trails among Latinx and Asian-Americans. Across all voters of color, Sanders leads slightly.
Nope. He’s often tied in matchups with Sanders. In the most recent Florida matchup poll, all candidates are behind Trump by 4 or more points, except Sanders, who leads Trump by 6.
Christopher says
You are seeing different polls than I am, but since you seem to like to make this about who will turnout for a candidate don’t you think being ahead among older AAs who have a better turnout record should mean something?
doubleman says
I’d like to know what polls you are seeing that show Biden doing the best with latino voters because all I have seen show that he is not. In the matchup polls, he seems to be regularly tied (or within margin of error) with Sanders and narrowly beats Trump in important states – Warren and Pete fare poorly in those same matchups.
It is a strong point for Biden’s candidacy. Those voters, however, say in equal numbers that they would be happy with Biden or with Sanders, so, in other words, they’ll likely turn out either way. Doing very well with only the reliable voters who will turn out and vote blue no matter who and doing poorly with other groups is not very reassuring. We need more than just the solid blue base to win. Some people believe that Sanders will turn off reliable Dem voters but no polling supports that idea of the pundit class at all.
It will be interesting to see if Biden’s advantage with these voters remains if he suffers losses in IA and NH.
Christopher says
I was referring specifically to African Americans. Sorry for not being clear.
jconway says
I’m voting for my students who cannot vote whether they are not old enough or are not citizens. I am voting for my student who’s family came here from Syria who’s extended family stayed there because of Trump., For the student who’s mother couldn’t come home from Colombia after burying her mother because of Trump, For the young black men I teach who deserve a Justice Department that treats racist cops as criminals instead of them under Trump. For half of my students who are women or the four that are queer who will lose hard fought rights under a hard right court under Trump. For all the students in ROTC who could serve under a commander in Chief who disregards putting them in danger and then lies about their injuries when he does.
So I think it is really important we are all on board with the nominee, whomever he or she is. All of the talk about electability is moot until we have a real vote. Once elections start happening, we will see whom Democrats want. Who knows, maybe it’s nobody anybody here supports, but he or she still deserves our support in the general against Trump. Staying home is not an option.
jconway says
Biden’s advantage with black voters is clear, how loyal it remains is another question. While my prediction (not my preference) is that Biden sows up this thing pretty early Kerry 2004 style, there’s a very good possibility he’s upset by Bernie and maybe even Warren or Buttigieg in the first two states. Biden wants to at least come in second or third in those two contests to keep the South Carolina firewall intact. Bernie’s underestimated strength with Latino voters could see him win Nevada and California.
jconway says
We can debate the polls all we want, at the end of the day, we won’t know who wins the nomination until real people start voting.
SomervilleTom says
Indeed.
Especially in MA, where the Democratic primary is the only election that has any effect on the ultimate outcome.
I can’t imagine a realistic scenario where the eleven Massachusetts electoral votes will go to anyone except the Democratic nominee.
jconway says
You never know though, I also want to make my popular vote count loudest and clearest against Trump. I want more parties and more options which is why I am supporting ranked choice voting on the ballot this fall. Until then, I will not vote for a third party candidate in a race where a Republican could win.
SomervilleTom says
Massachusetts has voted for exactly two Republican candidates for President in my lifetime (since 1952): Dwight Eisenhower and Ronald Reagan.
I know of absolutely NO Republican candidates of that stature anywhere in the party today. I think the GOP has been purging itself of all but the most extreme Trumpists for four years now.
There is no chance of ANY Republican winning Massachusetts in November of this year. It certainly won’t be Donald Trump, Mike Pence, or any other nationally-known Republican. Mitt Romney is the most competitive potential candidate on the Republican bench, and he lost Massachusetts 60% to 37% (1.9 M votes to 1.2 M votes).
I support the Ranked Choice question.
jconway says
I’m 99% sure MA will go to the Democrat, I’m aware of the tilt of the electorate here. I’m just saying the best way to soundly reject Trump in the fall is to vote for the Democrat. I want both the % for my state and the popular vote to be as high as possible. After we adopt RCV, you can rank them however you want and even write in some people.
I just have no patience for holier than thou voters whether they are from the center (like my brother who won’t vote for Warren against Trump) or some of the progressives here who won’t vote for Biden if he’s nominated. People of color in swing states routinely see their votes suppressed, so I’m not taking my voting rights for granted. Especially under this presidency.
fredrichlariccia says
Iowa poll update : Suffolk University / USA Todays survey of likely caucus voters taken from 1/23 to 1/26 with 45% may change and 13% undecided :
Biden 25
Sanders 19
Buttigieg 18
Warren 13
Klobuchar 6
The Iowa Caucus is a week from tomorrow.
jconway says
These polls show Sanders with the lead. Not rebutting your polls, only this seems to show a very fluid race. The number of undecided to decided is also close to 60/40, while in 2008 it was inverted. We also have no way of knowing who shows up. Polls of registered Democrats should be taken with a grain of salt since in 2008 30% showed up and that was a record number. We also do not know how second choice preferences will effect the race.
To paraphrase Yogi Berra:
“It ain’t over ’til it’s over.”
Christopher says
New Iowa poll shows Iowa is very difficult to poll – story at 11!:)