Nate Silver at 538.com calls it a toss up, which means that between now and 8pm on Tuesday, the only thing that matters is who shows up to vote.

So get thee to a phone bank (even one from home). Drive your neighbors to the polls on Tuesday. Talk to your friends and family. Convince them to vote, and to vote for Martha Coakley.

It’ll be easy to spend the next 44 hours anxiously hitting refresh on Boston.com and BMG or “campaigning” on Facebook. But the real action is getting Coakley voters to the polls. That’ll be the only thing that will prevent us from spending the next 3 years with Senator Scott Brown.

There’s work to do. Let’s get to it.

I’ll let you read the amusing debate happening at RMG over the value of a pro-choice, pro-gay Republican Gubernatorial candidate selecting a pro-choice, pro openly-gay Republican LG running mate.

If this is true, does the Baker/Tisei ticket move to Cahill’s left in the general? Can Baker/Tisei win in the primary against Mihos? Does an insider running mate hurt Baker’s outsider cred?

And what about Tisei’s senate seat? There’s already one Democrat, Mike Day running, but will a vacant seat attract more well-known candidates (with better web pages)?

And what is the response from the Chairman of the House Transportation Committee?

“It is unreasonable to think that there wouldn’t be adjustments in fares periodically,” said Representative Joseph F. Wagner, a Chicopee Democrat and cochairman of the Legislature’s Transportation Committee.

Yes, Chairman, is it unreasonable to think that fares will never go up. But you know what else is unreasonable? The fact that fares have doubled in the last decade.

Mr. Chairman, when was the last time the gas tax was raised? 1991? How about tolls?

Wagner said the transportation overhaul will provide cost savings. And he pointed out that the T already gets 1 percent of the state sales tax annually as a subsidy, meaning that the agency will get close to $900 million a year once the additional subsidy is taken into account.

It seems that Mr. Wagner doesn’t understand the concept of public transportation and thinks that riders should be thankful that the state is paying for any of it at all.

There’s a lot of talk from our elected “leaders” about the need to prevent toll increases, such as these gems from Senate President Terry Murray and Governor Patrick.

“The public cannot be expected to take on any additional burdens, like a toll increase, when they are already being asked to make significant sacrifices for the greater good of the Commonwealth,” Senate President Therese Murray said in a statement.

…

“We’re not going to have a tax increase and the tolls,” Patrick said. “Nobody wants that, I certainly don’t want that.”

It’s a shame that “the public” doesn’t seem to include those who use public transportation.  

NPR has learned that Supreme Court Justice David Souter is planning to retire at the end of the current court term.

The vacancy will give President Obama his first chance to name a member of the high court and begin to shape its future direction.

So, resident court watchers, who should Obama nominate?  

Pat Cloney, a former director under Patrick’s administration at the Massachusetts office of business development, as the $190,000-a-year interim executive director at a newly created agency called the Clean Energy Center.

Michael Morris, Patrick’s legislative liaison, as the $119,000a-year public relations director at the Massachusetts Water Resources Authority.

Edwin Carr, former chief of staff at the economic development department, as the $110,000-a-year executive director at the Massachusetts Office of International Trade and Investment.

Chuck Anderson, who served as Patrick’s policy director, as a $95,000-a-year senior adviser with the Massachusetts Technology Collaboration.

Of course, when you actually read the article all the way to the end, it seems that there are worthwhile explanations for all of these appointments.

- Cloney was selected by a board to head an agency recently created by the legislature. His background is in management of portfolio companies and focusing on new energy ventures.

- Morris is making less money than his predecessor.

- Carr is making just as much as he was in his previous job.

- Anderson has “unique combination of state policy experience and expertise in international law.”

Ernie, in his earlier post, argues that problems arise when inexperienced people try to run government. So maybe, just maybe, it makes sense to promote qualified government employees to positions of greater responsibility.

A promotion in and of itself does not a hack make.  

Today, the Globe says Kennedy will miss the final stimulus vote in the senate.

The Massachusetts Democrat is continuing his treatment and physical rehabilitation, and Democrats don’t need his vote for final passage, spokeswoman Melissa Wagoner said Friday.

Kennedy plans to travel between Florida and Washington for future Senate business “until the weather gets warmer here,” Wagoner said.

Kennedy made it to vote in a more crucial 60-votes-needed roll call earlier in the week for the bill, but to care for his health has to pick and choose when he makes the trips to DC.

Unfortunately, I forsee a good deal more close votes that need 60 ayes to pass. With 58 (59 if Franken is ever sworn in) Dems and a small number of Republicans and Democrats who are likely to swing depending on the issue, every vote is critical.

I obviously am not privy to the Senator’s up-to-date health status, and I believe Kennedy would go through pretty much anything to be where he needs to be to cast his vote. But the likelihood of him simply not being able to get to DC for a vote probably increases the longer he stays in the seat.

So I ask: Would it be best for the party, for the Senate, and for Massachusetts if he stepped down now and let us find a successor who we could be confident would be able to make it to DC whenever he or she was needed?  

DeLeo said Majority leader John Rogers (D-Norwood) has given up his bruising battle to replace DiMasi. He gave up, a source tells the Herald, earlier today.

“It becomes obvious at a certain point,” a source said about DeLeo’s win.

Rogers shook DeLeo’s hand on the House floor at the conclusion of DiMasi’s farewell speech in a clear signal that their race was over.

Rogers and DeLeo spoke this morning and DeLeo claimed at least three more supporters for a majority of 95, far above the 81 needed to win the seat.

UPDATE: Globe coverage is here with a video clip interviewing DeLeo. Watch to the end for him to express his support for slots at the racetracks…

A Statehouse source called the departure “imminent” after a receiving a flurry of phone calls last night and early this morning from several of the speaker’s closest colleagues. While no one would confirm or deny the Speaker’s resignation, the source said he was alerted to “developments” under way.

A second source told The Sun that several legislators were girding for an ascension fight between Rep. Robert DeLeo, D-Winthrop, and Rep. John Rogers, D-Norwood.

“Phone calls are already being made to line up support (for a new speaker). There’s a different urgency than past rumors,” he said.

The same source said he was not “reassured” by DiMasi staffers when he questioned them about the talk spreading through Statehouse offices. “In the past, the rumors were cast aside pretty firmly. That’s not the case today.”

If this is accurate, I wonder why now? What’s about to come out that’s forcing DiMasi’s hand?

A NO VOTE would make no change in the laws governing dog racing.

A NO VOTE would make no change in state criminal laws concerning possession of marijuana.

A NO VOTE would make no change in state income tax laws.

The Democratic party has a nominee (recount pending). It’s a shame Wilkerson isn’t willing to accept that fact, but everyone else should.

BARACK OBAMA knocks on the front door of a 300-year-old New Hampshire farmhouse while his Secret Service detail waits in the driveway. The door opens and OBAMA is standing face to face with former President JED BARTLET.

BARTLET Senator.

OBAMA Mr. President.

BARTLET You seem startled.

OBAMA I didn’t expect you to answer the door yourself.

BARTLET I didn’t expect you to be getting beat by John McCain and a Lancôme rep who thinks “The Flintstones” was based on a true story, so let’s call it even.

OBAMA Yes, sir.

BARTLET Come on in.

Makes me long for the days when we had a Democrat in the White House, either on TV or in reality.

Our esteemed editors have listed a lot of great races along the left side of the page. Scroll through them. Pick a candidate you want to help. Get out and do something. You have a week left to make a difference.

Maybe you live in the Second Suffolk Senate district and want to keep/oust Dianne Wilkerson. Maybe you want to help one of the candidates vying to replace Jim Marzilli. Now is the time for hands-on (sorry Jim) action!

North Shore? How do you feel about Verga and his two opponents?

Medford/Winchester/Somerville area? Man do you have a lot of races to choose from! (How do you feel about stickers?)

If you don’t know much about a candidate near you, take a few minutes to read their web sites and google the news about the race. Remember, this is Massachusetts. In most of these races, the primary is the only election! (Or at least the only one that matters.)

Presidential elections only come around every 4 years, and it’s great to get swept up in the importance and excitement, but let’s not forget how this blog got its start and what makes it a great community. It’s our commitment to making progressive politics happen right here in Massachusetts.

So let’s take the next week and make a difference right here at home. For our communities, for our politics, and for our sanity.

While Darcy begins the long process of reassembling her life, it is critical that we not let her fall behind her Republican opponent, incumbent Dave Reichert.

Daily Kos is rallying readers to the cause, attempting to raise $150,000 through the month of July for Darcy. Fortunately, our esteemed editors have already included Ms. Burner on our own BMG Act Blue page.

Darcy lost by 3 points in 2006 and there’s no reason she can’t win it this year. Let’s give her the support she needs so that this personal tragedy doesn’t sink her campaign.

State Senator Jim Marzilli (D-Arlington) has been indicted by a Middlesex Grand Jury for allegedly accosting and attempting to sexually assault four women on June 3 in Lowell.

Sen. Marzilli, 50, has been charged with four counts of annoying and accosting a person of the opposite sex, and one count each of attempting to commit a crime (indecent assault and battery), disorderly conduct, and resisting arrest.

What does this mean?

- Open Rep. seat in his district

- One fewer Democrat vying for Senator Resor’s seat.

Who needs a presidential campaign when we have all this action at the state level?!?!

King is the ranking Republican on the House Homeland Security Committee. And as an outspoken advocate of strong anti-terror measures, he has been unafraid to ruffle some feathers in his drive to protect the homeland.

When asked to clarify his statement, King did not revise his answer, saying “I think there has been a lack of full cooperation from too many people in the Muslim community.”

Gosh, I wonder why American Muslims aren’t feeling too cooperative? Could it be because we have elected congressmen saying that there are too many mosques in America? Maybe that doesn’t foster an environment of trust?

Just a thought…

SALEM, N.H. –Transportation Commissioner Charles O’Leary today proposed hiking tolls throughout most of New Hampshire’s turnpike system to pay for construction projects.

Gov. John Lynch said he supports the plan and would ask the Executive Council to approve the increases in two weeks.

I’m irked that the Governor there has more cajones than ours does when it comes to assessing the state’s needs and coming up with sensible measures to pay for them.

So the logical next question is: who runs for Jim Marzilli’s house seat? The district covers a big chunk of Arlington (where Marzilli lives) and a smaller chunk of West Medford.

Wait a minute… doesn’t David live in Marzilli’s district?

UPDATE: There, now I take nothing for granted. NOW can we discuss the subject of David for State Rep? (No need for a last name…)

Reasonable people should wait for the facts to come out before jumping to conclusions — or trying to score political points.

Republican Mitt Romney, who must be getting desperate since he can’t get beyond 15 percent in national polls, is using the case [of Jose Carranza] to bludgeon Rudy Guiliani. The Romney campaign is running a radio ad blasting “cities like Newark, San Francisco and New York City that adopt sanctuary policies” and become “magnets that encourage illegal immigration.”

A few paragraphs doesn’t do it justice. Read the whole thing here.

The June 15 deadline is too soon, according to one member of panel, Michael Widmer, head of the business-backed Massachusetts Taxpayers Association, which opposes Patrick’s loophole plan. Widmer was appointed by DiMasi.

“You can’t have a legitimate examination of corporate tax code in a month or two,” Widmer said.

Widmer also questioned the value of the commission.

“Of all the priorities that the state faces, I would not put this near the top,” he said. “The impetus for the commission really is a response to the governor’s proposal rather than a crying need in itself.”

Why am I not surprised?

Update, by Charley: Here are the other folks whose time Widmer will be wasting. Pity them:

Commission members include:

·  Leslie Kirwan, Secretary of Administration and Finance, Chair*

·  Representative John Binienda, House Chair, Joint Committee on Revenue*

·  Senator Cynthia Creem, Senate Chair, Joint Committee on Revenue*

·  Representative Bradley Jones, House Minority Leader*

·  Senator Richard Tisei, Senate Minority Leader*

·  Alan LeBovidge, Commissioner of Revenue*

·  Professor Alan Clayton-Matthews, UMass Boston

·  Joseph Donovan, tax lawyer, Sullivan and Worcester

·  Karl Fryzel, tax lawyer, Edwards Angell Palmer & Dodge

·  Stephen W. Kidder, Managing Partner, Hemenway & Barnes

·  Kevin Long, CPA

·  Eileen McAnneny, Associated Industries of Massachusetts

·  Jane Steinmetz, Partner, PricewaterhouseCoopers

·  Robert Tannenwald, Economist and Director, New England Public Policy Center, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston

·  Michael Widmer, President, Massachusetts Taxpayers Foundation

  (* or designee)

To clarify, Sal “no policy changes in the budget” DiMasi included a budget section that would have altered the Governor’s reorganization, the same reorganization that was passed unanimously by the House not so long ago.

The Republicans picked up on this Speaker slight-of-hand and filed an amendment to reinstate the Governor’s original reorg.

From State House News:

Looking to thwart House Speaker Salvatore DiMasi’s effort to implement organizational aspects of his energy plan through the budget, Republicans are vigorously pushing House Minority Leader Bradley Jones’s amendment mandating the structure of the energy bureaucracy match Gov. Deval Patrick’s plan, which the Legislature passed earlier this year. “It had been my hope that the speaker would  consider going through the committee process. Because oftentimes we are expected to practice what we preach,” Jones said, pointing to DiMasi’s gospel of refraining from policy measures in the budget.

And how did this mini-drama play out?

The House rejected the amendment on a 30-127 roll call, generally along party lines. Democrats voting in favor of the Jones amendment, on a roll call whose printout was sought eagerly by members and staff, were Reps. Atkins, Casey, Grant, Marzilli, Patrick, Petersen, Provost, Quinn, Sciortino, Harriett Stanley, and Sullivan.

Let’s hear it for the Dems willing to stand up for the Governor. And let’s hope they don’t all get relegated to obscurity for doing so.

Something tells me this is only the beginning.

DiMASI SAID TO TAP BUSINESS LOBBYISTS, CPA FOR TAX CODE PANEL

House Speaker Salvatore DiMasi sent Gov. Deval Patrick his appointees to a tax code commission last Thursday, a House source said today. DiMasi, who came under criticism on a political website for allegedly stalling on picking his panelists for the group that plans to study the state’s tax structure, named Associated Industries of Massachusetts vice president Eileen McAnneny; Mass. Taxpayers Foundation President Michael Widmer; and Kevin Long, a tax attorney and accountant from Sudbury; House Revenue Committee chairman John Binienda (D-Worcester); and House Minority Leader Bradley Jones (R-North Reading), according to the source, who spoke on condition of anonymity. Taxes are one of the strongest areas of disagreement between the speaker and the governor, and Patrick gave ground to anti-tax legislators by agreeing to the study group. Communications aides have been tight-lipped about the appointments, saying the Executive, House, and Senate planned a joint release. The House budget on the floor for consideration all week does not include Patrick’s request to generate $500 million per year by closing what Patrick calls “loopholes” in the state’s corporate tax code. Critics say the governor’s plan will hurt business and job creation. The idea of a commission appears to be a compromise, with Beacon Hill Democrats expressing hope that a special panel will explore the issues in play in more detail.

Pardon my cynicism, but somehow I don’t envision the panel coming out with a report in favor of closing anything loophole related. In fact, this is pretty much a solid slap in the Governor’s face from DiMasi, who clearly doesn’t think he owes the executive office any deference.

This move should wipe away any pretense that this study commission was an attempt at reaching a compromise.

So if anyone knows a good Democrat in that district who wants to be a state rep, now’s the time to start raising money!

Ernie Boch gave some hints, about Barrios, Festa, and Joyce, and he usually seems to know more than he lets on.

Anyone else in the know? Anyone else have a sense of when we’re going to be hearing? It’s been so long since a Democrat transitioned into the corner office that I feel like no one remembers how this works!

(UPDATE: Apparently the pages aren’t permalinkable. I’ve removed all the dead links, so if you want proof, you have to go look them up yourself here.)

Highlights and notable accomplishments include:

- State Representative John Rogers, looking to defend his seat, paid $28,000 to Bay State Consulting. That’s more than most state rep races are spending for the entire election. But what’s weirder is that it’s a pittance compared to the $105,000 he paid them in 2005, when there was no election!

- Helen Sharron, candidate for State Senate in the Berkshire Hampshire & Franklin district has raised an impressive $102,000… impressive, that is until you realize that she loaned herself $80,000

- Angelo Puppolo, candidate for State Rep in the 12th Hampden district paid $350 for this web page.

- Nick Bernier, state Rep candidate in the 4th Bristol district, had $5,390 on hand on September 1st. Of course, that’s only because he loaned himself $4,200 on August 30th.

- William Celester, State Rep candidate in the 6th Suffolk district, raised a modest $10,619. Then he spent $600 on cleaning and painting his campaign office.

- Samiyah Diaz, republican candidate (and Democratic write-in) in the 2nd Suffolk State Senate district, has only raised $14,700. (And that includes $3,000 from the Republican state committee!.)

- Ed Curran, candidate for the 15th Essex State Rep seat, has spent about $22,000. That includes $2,416 on a golf tournament and $783 on golf shirts!

- Congressman Richard Neal has a PAC. His PAC received $100 and spent $96 in bank fees. That’s money well spent, Congressman.

- UPDATE: See? This is why filings are fun. Our own StemCellular has uncovered these juicy tidbits about Sen. Dianne Wilkerson. For the disclosure, this explains why I’m with Sonia Chang-Diaz.

Those are the tidbits I’ve come across so far. I’ll update this diary as more filings are posted. If anyone else comes across worthwhile dirt, put it in the comments!

Speaking even as a fiscal moderate, I’m adept enough to interpret the conversations at Dunkin Donuts and other venues where voters don’t need to impress pollsters and are free to vent right from the gut. I find citizens to be utterly appalled at the complete lack of integrity existent in state government — with tax concerns taking an unusual back seat — and they are therefore seeking a completely different brand of chief executive. They want someone who is impeccably honest, untainted by any connection or tether to the establishment and offering a ton of very much needed hope. That’s why Patrick’s “Hope ad,” where he appears with U.S. Senator Barak Obama articulating how his life proves hope is still a vibrant thing for people who dare embrace a little of it in their lives, seems to be projecting a message aimed directly at the beleaguered Massachusetts electorate — which is exhausted by seemingly hopeless dilemmas like the Big Dig, the Big Dig and the Big Dig.

He continues with an argument that many have made on this forum already.

Further, if tax cuts were king, throw the election to Republican Kerry Healey because all the ads in the world aren’t going to change the very deep rooted voter perception that the G.O.P. candidate will deliver on that issue before any Democrat does, even a venture capitalist. Trying to ‘out Republican’ Kerry Healey is a bad strategy for any Democrat in the primary, or in the general election.

I know we’re just going to keep going back and forth on this one, and only time will tell whether or not the rollback will be the big factor in this race. But it’s nice to see someone in the media articulating the fact that, while people are happy to have more money in their pockets, there are bigger concerns on their minds.

Enough is Enough: John Kelleher announces he’ll run as a Democratic alternative to State Senator Wilkerson

Why would anyone declare  their intent to run for State Senate in a write-in campaign against an  entrenched incumbent with less than two weeks to the Democratic Primary  election?

It is because enough is  enough. It is because honor, integrity  and respect for the law matter greatly to me and to the hundreds of my frustrated

friends and neighbors I have talked to over the past months. I simply  could not stand by without  doing  something.

The rest of the release goes on to talk about his background: Former state rep from Jamaica Plain, currently works for the Boston PD (taking a leave of absence to run for state senate).

What strikes me is this: We already have a candidate running on the principles of honor, integrity, and respect for the law.

(Yes, I work with Sonia Chang-Diaz… the usual caveats apply.)

No one has been clearer than Sonia that she is running because the voters deserve a leader who upholds the highest standards of conduct (scroll down for the quote).

So does Kelleher think he can win with a 2-week race? Wilkerson has the advantage of incumbency. Chang-Diaz and Diaz have the advantage of months wooing voters, getting press, and making themselves known. I know that a write-in race is a crapshoot any day, but I have to believe that he’s going to have a very difficult time putting a machine in place in the next 12 days.

(For the disclosure, I have done some work with the Sonia Chang-Diaz campaign. This post, however, is not submitted by the campaign and has not been coordinated with Ms. Chang-Diaz or her campaign staff.)

I can’t imagine what would possess someone to jump into such an already-crazy game this late. First off, to be at all competitive in this race he’s going to have to raise a good bit of money in a short time (unless perhaps he’s well-off on his own). Second, the other candidates have been working for a few months now, getting press, going canvassing, and generally getting their names out there.

The way I see it, any more people in this race is a boon for Wilkerson. The cloudier the field gets, the more the “we don’t like Wilkerson” vote gets split between the various challengers, while her staunch supporters stay strong.

What’s possessing Kelleher to run a probably-futile last-minute campaign that will only serve as a spoiler for the serious challenger(s) who have been working for months?

“This is a significant investment to create good-paying jobs in every region of the state, while at the same time elevating research and education at UMass,” a Reilly adviser said.

With job and population growth stagnant in the past several years, economic development has become a central issue in this year’s governor’s race. The state’s population dropped by nearly 19,000 between 2003 and 2005, according to census data; a nationwide survey commissioned by the Globe this spring found that 39 percent of those who left cited a better job as a major factor.

First of all, I applaud this proposal. Many of the Gubernatorial candidates have been discussing proposals that would advance higher education in the state, especially at UMass. It’s good to see specifics.

My question is this – how does Mr. Reilly propose that the state cover it’s share of the cost?

The money — $400 million in state funds and $100 million to be raised privately — would be spent over five years under the direction of a panel of private and public sector advisers, according to an outline of the proposal obtained by the Globe. The funds could be used to hire faculty and research teams, to support research labs and equipment, and to bring products using new technologies to market.

That’s a large chunk of change from someone who wants to cut the state’s revenues by $517 million per year.

David Garman, UnderSecretary of Energy, said provisions in the $8.7 billion Coast Guard reauthorization bill that would empower Governor Mitt Romney to block the $900 million project are “unwise” because the New England region needs new energy supplies.

I’ll tell ya, whatever side of this issue you’re on, this debate is making for some strange bedfellows.

Dear Tom and Chris:

There can be no doubt that our Party’s divisive and late primaries have contributed to the difficulty Democrats have had in winning the race for Governor of Massachusetts.  I hope you agree that too much is at stake for our Party, our Commonwealth and, frankly, the Nation for us not to learn from this history.

Yesterday, at the Victory ’06 launch, our Party chair called for unity.  All three of us stood with him in agreement that if we work together we can deliver a Democratic victory in November.  I believe that.

In that spirit, I am asking you to join me in committing to a plan to assure a dignified, substantive primary, and a Democratic victory in November.  I propose three parts to the plan:

First , join me in agreeing to actively support the Democratic nominee — whoever of us it may be —beginning the morning after the primary vote.  To be successful this year, we will not have the luxury of prolonging our own differences once the primary is over.

Second , join me in a pledge against negative advertising.  Specifically, let’s agree not to name any other Democratic candidate in any of our respective campaign’s paid advertising.  Let’s keep our focus on substance and vision, on why we, as individuals and as Democrats, should hold the highest executive office in Massachusetts.  It is what the voters want and deserve.

Third , let’s commit to at least one media-sponsored debate each month between now and the primary.  It can be on television, the radio or the Internet.  Let’s do some with Spanish and Portuguese outlets, as well as in additional languages that may be helpful to voters.  We have real and principled differences in vision and policy.  Let’s give the voters a chance to choose based on substance, not just rhetoric.

I ask you to join me in these three, simple concepts.  I believe this is a better way to present a spirited and exciting primary to Democratic primary voters, and to ensure a Democratic victory in November.

I look forward to your prompt response.

Sincerely,

Deval L. Patrick

Democratic Candidate for Governor

In regards to the first point – all candidates lining up behind the winner the day after the primary – I would hope that everyone can agree to this. It would really be poor form for anyone to sulk off after they lost.

The next two are less likely in my mind. At some point someone’s going to take a jab at their opponent in an ad. Gabrielli has a lot of money to spend and a lot of ground to make up. At some point it’ll be in his campaign’s interest to draw distinctions between him and his opponents. I agree that everyone should avoid character assassinations and stick to the issues, but a hard-hitting comparative piece is a weapon no one will want to give up.

And monthly debates? Hah! I’ll bet Gabrielli would love it, but I can’t see Reilly going for it.

It seems like this was a smart move on the part of the Patrick campaign. They have to know that the other two candidates won’t sign on so they get automatic brownie points for being the forward-thinking unifiers while getting to paint the other guys as uncooperative and against party unity. Of course, they can no longer put out an attack ad without being hypocritical, but they seem to be the one campaign that needs them least.

However, the factor that I haven’t yet come to an understanding of is what the actual role of the Lt. Governor is.