paulsimmons

Person #2547: 115 Posts

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  1. The Washington Post/ABC News poll states otherwise (1 Reply)

    The poll (released today) shows the race to be a dead heat, with the Clinton numbers evaporating, relative to her August lead.

    Money quote:

    Clinton’s critique is not shared by most Americans, with more than 6 in 10 saying it is unfair to describe a large portion of Trump supporters as prejudiced against women and minorities. Still, almost 6 in 10 say Trump is trying to win support by “appealing to people’s prejudices against groups that are different from their own.” That includes 46 percent who say that he is making such appeals strongly. When asked the same about Clinton, the public was split, with 45 percent saying she, too, is appealing to people’s prejudices, while 46 percent say she is not.

  2. Boston turnout is abysmal (0 Replies)

    …at 27,927 votes (7.0%) as of the six o’clock count.

    Cambridge 6:00 numbers are 9,443 (14.0%).

  3. Three words (1 Reply)

    Players count blanks.

    As you pointed out above, “blanks” are votes of no confidence, and believe me, above a certain threshold (depending upon the office). an uncontested candidate becomes a weak incumbent.

  4. Yes and no. (1 Reply)

    Yes, laborers have to be organized, but given the size of the U.S. economy, we need to reindustrialize; specifically, we need more value-added manufacturing, as in Canada, where:

    Manufacturing is the major source of productivity growth in the Canadian economy.

    I mention in passing that Canada’s middle class has a higher after-tax income than we do in the U.S.

  5. Kareem Abdul-Jabarr addressed this issue in the WP (0 Replies)

    I quote:

    During the Olympics in Rio a couple of weeks ago, Army Reserve 2nd Lt. Sam Kendricks was sprinting intently in the middle of his pole vaulting attempt when he heard the national anthem playing. He immediately dropped his pole and stood at attention, a spontaneous expression of heartfelt patriotism that elicited more praise than his eventual bronze medal. Last Thursday, San Francisco 49ers quarterback Colin Kaepernick chose not to stand with his teammates during the national anthem. To some, Kendricks embodies traditional all-American Forrest Gump values of patriotism, while Kaepernick represents the entitled brattish behavior of a wealthy athlete ungrateful to a country that has given him so much.

    In truth, both men, in their own ways, behaved in a highly patriotic manner that should make all Americans proud.

    and:

    What makes an act truly patriotic and not just lip-service is when it involves personal risk or sacrifice. Both Kendricks and Kaepernick chose to express their patriotism publicly because they felt that inspiring others was more important than the personal cost.

  6. Or Confederate States (contiguous with unseceeded Union States) (1 Reply)

    …where there was a critical mass of pro-Union sentiment. Tennesee comes to mind…

  7. Barr is bigger and more powerful. (0 Replies)

    …and is arguably much more militantly pro-charter school than TBF.

    A useful overview can be found here.

  8. Actually your biggest threat comes from the philanthropic Left (1 Reply)

    Specifically the Boston Foundation.

    The role of the Barr Foundation in this was addressed earlier on this site.

    As can be seen here and here, TBF supports increased charter schools, and given the activist community’s dependence upon their resources for funding (and the lack of credible opposition on the ground in the Commonwealth’s urban communities as I write this) …

  9. The Apollo One disaster happened during a testbed operation. (0 Replies)

    …but broadly, it took from 1961 to 1969 to engineer the means for the first Moon flight; and three programs: Mercury, Gemini, and Apollo.

    That being the case, both you and Christopher are right.

  10. Let's agree to disagree (1 Reply)

    …since we have different frames of reference on this.

    Prior to the Khan speech at the Democratic Convention, Trump’s actions accrued to his political advantage; and hence were rational. It was the specific target of Trump’s contempt, not the action per se that caused the backfire.

    In the absence of a son who gave his life for his country, attacking the Khans would have worked. Because the decision to attack was rational and fit Trump’s history of rational and successful exploitation of fear and bigotry (and since I’m not licensed to practice psychiatry), I’ll forego playing games with the DSM, and call it as I see it.

  11. Pseudo-therapeutic analyses ignore the existence of evil (1 Reply)

    Trump is following in a long line of demagogues that exploit legitimate fears for personal advantage. The technique backfired (for the moment) only because respect and empathy for the Khans’ status as Gold Star Parents trumped (pun intended) their Muslim faith and Pakistani origins, even among much of Trump’s support base.

    While Donald Trump is pathological, he is not mentally ill: he is merely continuing a pattern that never failed him in the past.

    Trump lies and rabble-rouses for the simple reason that it has worked to his benefit for more than thirty years. He is failing not due to irrationality, but due to overreach.

    To paraphrase Talleyrand, Trump’s antics are worse than crimes; they are blunders.

  12. The graph is up-to-date (1 Reply)

    HuffPo/Pollster, RealClearPolitics, FiveThirtyEight.com and most other such sites use polling aggregates; sometimes augmented by models, sometimes not.

    The HuffPo/Pollster aggregate (linked to here) includes the MassINC survey under the heading “Latest Polls”.

  13. Individual votes become aggregates, and small aggregates can determine elections. (2 Replies)

    For your consideration, let’s consider New Hampshire in 2000.

    Gore received 266,348 votes.

    Bush received 273,559 votes.

    Nader received 22,198 votes.

    I’m not bashing Nader; I merely point out that 7,212 extra votes in New Hampshire (with its four electoral votes) would have given Gore the Presidency, Florida notwithstanding.

  14. Carter's DCI was Admiral Stansfield Turner (1 Reply)

    Casey was appointed by Reagan as Director of Central Intelligence after serving as his campaign manager in the 1980 election.

  15. A possible, REPEAT POSSIBLE, silver lining (0 Replies)

    One of the things that irritates me to no end is this premise (mostly in Democratic wonk circles; their Republican colleagues are usually smarter) that they can model elections and avoid doing competent work on the ground. In particular folks who think that they can micro-target their way to Heaven (while being illiterate about little nuances on the ground) are on my perpetual shit list.

    Well we now see what happens when people memorize the map and ignore the road.

    But there is hope.

    One of the bigger ironies of this race is that many Sanders supporters have a great deal of credibility in many pro-Trump geographies in Appalachia and the industrial Midwest. Equally important is the fact that (unlike many Clinton operatives) they live in these areas.

    If things don’t get to far out-of-whack in Philadelphia, and enough on-the-ground Sanders supporters are enlisted to stop Trump (and not micromanaged by the Clinton campaign), it’s not out of the realm of possibility that virtue can triumph over evil.

    Thank God that Bernie is a class act.

  16. I don't recall laughing at Trump (0 Replies)

    …and I know firsthand how successful he’s been in Pennsylvania.

    Regarding that last point: I’ve noted my concerns on occasion.

  17. From John Nichols in The Nation: (0 Replies)

    Who also saw the implications of the poll.

    Trump knows how to exploit fears of the future. Democrats can only counter him with a vision for the future—a vision that respects those fears and addresses them. America is not a banana republic, but it is a vulnerable republic. Trump and his backers will seek to exploit that vulnerability—just as they exploited the vulnerabilities of an increasingly delusional Republican Party. Democrats must name and shame Trump’s politics of exploitation, and then they must counter it with a new politics that speaks to the better angels identified by the first Republican president: a fellow named Lincoln who would not recognize what has become of his party

  18. One problem: Trump's speech was successful (1 Reply)

    Per CNN/ORC’s instant polling:
    Overall Reaction:

    Very Positive: 57%
    Somewhat positive: 18%
    Negative: 24%

    Affect on voting for Trump:
    More Likely: 56%
    Less likely: 10%
    Not much affect: 32%

  19. No (0 Replies)

    Portugal, then under the Salazar dictatorship was a charter NATO member, and neither Greece nor Turkey’s periods under dictatorships adversely affected their NATO status.