paulsimmons

Person #2547: 83 Posts

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  1. The President can classify pretty much anything he wants to (2 Replies)

    …absent legislation by Congress, or a federal court decision (if necessary sustained by SCOUTUS) to the contrary.

    Here is a link that might be useful.

    The Charles I reference is amusing but irrelevant, the President’s power to classify (with the aforementioned limits) has been around since 1940.

    And as an aside to ST, Obama isn’t a “moderate”, he’s a Taft conservative, which in fairness, he’s never hidden at any time in his political career.

  2. In fairness to Rosenberg (0 Replies)

    …he did a good job running the Senate side of Redistricting in 2011.

    If you could give some examples re: Ways and Means?

  3. I didn't say that. (0 Replies)

    I quote from the header of my comment:

    Actually, Tom, the electorate does believe that climate change is real

    What I said was that the electorate doesn’t prioritize the issue, as reflected by the polling data, including that specific to the Commonwealth.

  4. Far from it (0 Replies)

    I simply state that neither Sanders, nor Dean, nor the bulk of the Vermont electorate support gun control beyond the limitations in the Vermont statutes.

  5. This is Vermont we're talking about (1 Reply)

    …where the right to bear arms (open or concealed) without a permit is enshrined in the State Constitution. One of my major sources of amusement over the years is the fact that both Sanders and Howard Dean were elected largely due to NRA support against (mildly) pro-gun control Republicans.

    Information about Vermont’s gun laws can be found here, here, and here.

  6. Red herring alert (1 Reply)

    Nothing I cited or discussed states or implies that there is any critical mass of support for increased taxes. So what relevance does the Suffolk poll have to your point?

    A side point: For what its worth, most reputable pollsters don’t manipulate their results, for the simple reason that doing so hurts their bottom line when (not “if”) such manipulation is discovered. In addition the AAPOR tends to frown on the practice, and they have all kinds of sanctions…

  7. Don't forget that voter contact universes aren't passive demographic averages (1 Reply)

    …but are based upon prior participation at the polls.

    For example people 45 and over are more inclined to vote, black women vote at higher rates than black men, etc.

    Parents of public school children vote at lower rates than voters 55 and older. In public policy this translates as lower tax rates trumping expenditures.

    And so on. Sometimes this can be counter intuitive for progressives, when false premises lead to faulty analysis.

    A good example of this is Boston where public education is low priority (rhetoric to the contrary notwithstanding) because most of the talent is imported, not home grown.

  8. Alas, Tom (0 Replies)

    I’ve done sampling of turnout patterns from voter history lists for some time now, and while I’m not privy to Suffolk’s sampling technique, I can state that public school parents are a decreasing minority in my supervoter contact universes. Specific to Boston local elections, those supervoter universes are so small as to be almost useless in many neighborhoods.

    This, in my opinion, is at least in part due to the collapse of locally-embedded accountable party structures, particularly in urban areas.

    When the canvassing lists are (1) given to outside volunteers who have no connection to the locals; (2) administered by campaign staff with no knowledge of neighborhood-specific conditions on the ground; and (3) based upon contact universes much smaller than the potential support pool, turnout becomes incestuous.

    The unsung hero of the Patrick Campaign in 2006 was Nancy Stolberg, who created, organized, and coordinated the grassroots insurgency that won the primary and general election. Alas, that operation was allowed to wither and die, with the results we saw in 2014.

    It’s more political malpractice than a “broken political system”, Tom. Simply put, many public school parents are simply not contacted by canvassers credible to them; and as an aside, social media and phone banking hit points of diminishing returns years ago.

  9. Yes, Pacheco's bill is S.1786 (0 Replies)

    I mentioned it here, and the text of the bill is here.

  10. It takes two houses to pass legislation (1 Reply)

    …and I remind you that tax bills must originate in the House.

    Frankly the structural advantages were better last year with Conroy-Barrett, essentially the same bill, that died a lingering death in study committee last year.

    As you noted, we didn’t have a Republican Governor in 2014.

    If – I say IF – the environmental folks create a tangible base in the requisite House Districts to, first, kick the bill out of committee, and, then, create and enforce a veto-proof majority, and if a similar majority can be created Senate-side, things will be different, but such is not the case now, alas.

  11. I'm a little confused here. (0 Replies)

    From the Wakefield Observer:

    According to unofficial results from temporary Town Clerk Rosemary Morgan, Kate Morgan received 1,142 votes, Tiro 982 and Iengo-Cook 842.

    The 2010 Census indicated that Wakefield had a population of 20,942, of whom 19,154 were twenty years old or older.

    Given the low turnout, why was there no GOTV for the progressive candidate?

  12. Nope (0 Replies)

    …I’m pretty confident it is doomed and now it’s all about face saving.

    They’re still in heavy-duty denial, building cloud castles with air bricks.

  13. Rent control in Somerville was abolished in 1979 (1 Reply)

    The only places left were Boston, Brookline, and Cambridge.

    In 1994, there was a Statewide referendum, Question 9, which abolished rent control in those municipalities, despite local support. Interestingly, the three adversely affected cities opposed the referendum, which passed with 51% of the vote.

  14. Thanks for that (0 Replies)

    I was only familiar with the first meaning of the term.

  15. Then you might like this bill filed by Sen. Pacheco (0 Replies)

    Below is a partial quote from S1786:

    (e) Said subsection (b) of said section 7 of said chapter 21 of the General Laws, as so appearing, is hereby amended by inserting after the last sentence the following sentences:- “All revenue derived from said economy-wide price on carbon shall be placed into a Clean Energy and Transportation Fund. 20 percent of the fund shall be used for public transportation and energy projects which will reduce carbon emissions and help Massachusetts transition from fossil fuels. The remaining revenue shall be returned to all Massachusetts residents through a revenue rebate program established by the Department of Revenue.

  16. Let me address these points in order given: (0 Replies)

    Point 1: I was not presuming guilt on Tierney’s part; I was thinking in terms of public perception. When a spouse and brother-in-law (in Frank’s case a romantic partner) are involved in a scandal, there are matters of guilt by association that Frank addressed competently and Tierney didn’t. The results were a sympathy bounce for Frank and negative public perceptions for Tierney.

    Point 2: There is a tendency on the part of Massachusetts Congressional Democrats to presume a static electorate, ignore creating permanent on-the-ground organizations, and overemphasize media at the expense of field operations. It must be remembered that Tierney had no primary opposition in 2012, so that specific cycle is irrelevant to my point. However, in the absence of an organized support base (as defined by the Barney Frank rule), Moulton’s media campaign was sufficient to the task in 2014.

    Had Tierney spent some time in 2011 – 2013 creating a town, ward, and precinct organization loyal to him in MA06, and created halfway effective voter ID and GOTV operations,the 2014 results might have been different.

    So, while we can debate whether or not Tierney had good political instincts, I submit to you that he had limited political skills, based upon the only criterion I care about: getting re-elected.

  17. I think you were caught defending against an apples and oranges argument (1 Reply)

    The political demographics of the Fourth and Sixth Districts are sufficiently different that one really can’t compare Frank’s and Tierney’s political traction in ideological terms.

    The difference was that Barney Frank was politically competent and Tierney was not, when it came to dealing with a political crisis. The 1989 Gobie scandal could have ended Frank’s career, but by addressing the issue and admitting fault Frank saved his seat.

    However, I think Barney Frank’s District in 1989 was on the whole more tolerant and forgiving than the Sixth Congressional in 2014.

    One of my favorite Barney Frank quotes – paraphrase actually – defined one’s base as “those people who are with you when you’re wrong”. By that definition, Tierney had an insufficient base.

    Granted, it was Tierney’s wife and brother-in-law who were at fault in the gambling scandal that crippled him, but Tierney handled the matter in such a sloppy fashion that guilt by association was inevitable.

    While a case can be made concerning who was the more progressive of the two in the abstract, the argument is irrelevant insofar as their respective political survival is concerned – except in the unsentimental sense that Barney Frank was a better politician, relative to his District.