paulsimmons

Person #2547: 74 Posts

Recommended: 490 times

Posts   |   Comments

  1. Yep, all 17.04% of them. So much for the base. (1 Reply)

    I’m not suggesting that Coakley was “forced” on me – or any other Democrat.

    I’m just saying that her campaign staff couldn’t organize a bottle party in a brewery.

    I think that the race is still tight, and Coakley could still pull it off; but her campaign staff are so dense they bend light.

  2. Here's the Google (0 Replies)

    Coakely has made it quite clear that she is willing to kiss the Speaker’s a… I mean work collegially with Mr DeLeo for the betterment for all the residents of the Commonwealth.

  3. Simply put, she ignored the ground game (1 Reply)

    …and took her base for granted. If you want folks to vote for you, you gotta ask them for your vote.

    …and, having asked, it never hurts to organize them on your behalf.

    As I said, passive-aggressive.

    I have the equivalent of two overlapping focus groups: players and civilians, all on my Massachusetts Supervoter list. For months I’ve asked them “What are you hearing from the campaigns?”, by which I mean mailers,lit, and political buzz by neighbors colleagues, and friends – phone banks and emails don’t count, because they are considered (at best) nuisances by recipients.

    For eleven months, nada.

  4. Please don't give me one this easy again (1 Reply)

    Please explain what more Coakley can do…

    She can run a marginally competent campaign.

  5. Consider that that is the opinion of a Globe writer (1 Reply)

    …and I don’t mean that ideologically.

    For more reasons than I care to go into at present, the Globe is mediocre at political reporting.

    The Democratic problem is structural. Simply put Coakley has a crappy field operation. This is not necessarily her fault as a candidate; the field vacuum on the Democratic side is Statewide, as is the indifference of most Democratic elected officials.

    Coakley ran an essentially passive-aggressive campaign in the primaries, correctly presuming that the incompetence (approaching political malpractice) on the part of the Berwick and Grossman campaigns would give her the nomination by default.

    Given her consistently high negatives it’s not surprising that competent (not great, just competent) campaigning by Baker would result in momentum on his behalf.

  6. Not quite, Coakley's problem also involves defecting Democrats (1 Reply)

    I haven’t gone into the weeds with the crosstabs from the just-released Globe poll, but these excerpts from yesterday’s David Bernstein column in Boston Magazine are instructive:

    There remain, according to most polls, an unusual number of undecided voters remaining, for such a high-profile race between two well-established candidates. The lion’s share of those undecideds appear to be regular Democratic voters, whether they identify as party members or not. Conventional wisdom would suggest that most of them will, in the end, “come home” to their party’s candidate, to use the political argot, as they did for Elizabeth Warren and Deval Patrick in 2012 and 2010.

    But in this race, the “come home” phrase increasingly brings to my mind the image of a parent waiting up as curfew passes. The later the hour grows, the more likely that the wayward child will decide to crash at a friend’s house for the night.

    It looks like Coakley’s problem can be summed up as sufficient Democrats breaking towards Baker to give him an edge which is now outside the margins of error of (at least) the Globe poll.

  7. The source polls are at the Pollster site (1 Reply)

    …that I linked to in the post.

    On that site are likes to the individual polls’ marginals and crosstabs. In addition the graphic at HuffPo/Pollster is interactive, and can give information by source poll/point in time.

  8. I was responding to jconway (0 Replies)

    I remember that race very well. Rush kicked Obama’s ass by running against Hyde Park and Harvard. The slogan on the streets was that Obama was “too bright and too white”.

  9. That's somewhat revisionist (1 Reply)

    What happened was that Obama led (not for the first time, nor the last) with his hubris. From a very good recap in the September 9, 2007 New York Times:

    Mr. Obama was a 38-year-old state senator and University of Chicago lecturer, unknown in much of Mr. Rush’s Congressional district. He lived in its most rarefied neighborhood, Hyde Park. He was taking on a local legend, a former alderman and four-term incumbent who had given voters no obvious reason to displace him.

    Mr. Rush’s name recognition started off at 90 percent, Mr. Obama’s at 11. Then Mr. Rush’s son was murdered, leading Mr. Obama to put his campaign on hold. Later, while vacationing in Hawaii with his family, he missed a high-profile vote in the Legislature and was pilloried. (One Chicago Tribune editorial began, “What a bunch of gutless sheep.”) Then President Clinton endorsed Mr. Rush.

    “Campaigns are always, ‘What’s the narrative of the race?’ ” said Eric Adelstein, a media consultant in Chicago who worked on the Rush campaign. “In a sense, it was ‘the Black Panther against the professor.’ That’s not a knock on Obama; but to run from Hyde Park, this little bastion of academia, this white community in the black South Side — it just seemed odd that he would make that choice as a kind of stepping out.”

  10. The dangers of binary thinking (0 Replies)

    Without belaboring any point about either charter schools in isolation, or the Boston Foundation’s support thereof, this is not a morality play.

    From the Globe article linked to above:

    One hopeful sign comes from the two front-runners in next month’s gubernatorial election. Republican Charlie Baker and Democrat Martha Coakley have condemned the Board of Education vote and are calling on its members to reverse the dense decision that undermines charter schools in urban areas where they are needed most. The Race to the Top Coalition, which includes the Urban League of Eastern Massachusetts and the Black Ministerial Alliance, reinforced that message yesterday, citing the “perverse effect” of the formula change.

    The broader argument is about quality education, and both sides have cogent arguments when they’re not talking past each other.

  11. All the political power on this is on the Quincy side (1 Reply)

    Neither Menino nor Walsh had (or has) the juice in the Ledge to beat Quincy on funding for the bridge. This is all Committee inside ball, and none of the Boston reps are in a position to go toe-to-toe on this.

    The reason it wasn’t fixed was that Quincy pols don’t want it fixed. The stop gap funding is because there is also a day summer camp on the island (as well as the the Boston Police firing range, a few witness protection safe houses, and other odds and ends…).

    Why is Marty Walsh talking about starting from scratch?

    Because construction contracts and jobs might, just might, trump Quincy NIMBY Triumphalism.

    Can anyone say Jay Cashman?

  12. Don't blame Boston for this (1 Reply)

    Boston owns the island, but the bridge is Quincy’s jurisdiction. Boston has been trying to get the bridge repaired for years.

    From the March 16, 2014 Patriot Ledger:

    A truce has been reached in the longstanding bridge battle between the cities of Quincy and Boston.

    Quincy’s conservation commission Wednesday approved the city of Boston’s plan to make $15 million in repairs to the Long Island Bridge, which connects Squantum and Moon Island to Boston’s Long Island. The 63-year-old bridge has long been a source of tension between the two cities. Many in Quincy say the structure is beyond repair and should come down…

    …Quincy’s conservation commission unanimously backed the repair project, albeit with conditions.

    As part of the project, Boston is required to pay $27,500 for the city of Quincy’s engineering consultant, Polaris Consultants of Plymouth. Polaris will monitor the bridge repairs to make sure the work does not impact the surrounding environment, including Quincy’s beaches and maritime uses…

    The 3,500-foot bridge, made of steel and concrete, is owned by the city of Boston. However, Quincy provides the only land access, so the city’s conservation commission must approve all bridge work…

    …The bridge underwent repairs in 2008 and 2011, and Jayasinghe said they will likely continue even after this next project.

    Local officials and state lawmakers, including state Rep. Bruce Ayers, D-Quincy, have asked for the bridge to be torn down and replaced with a ferry service. Ayers has said continued bridge repairs are a waste of taxpayer money, not only in Boston but in all of Massachusetts, because state funds contribute to bridge projects.

    Although Ayers did not attend Wednesday’s commission meeting, he submitted a letter that was read aloud by Duca. He reiterated his opposition to the bridge repairs.

  13. You have a point there. (1 Reply)

    I was at the forum, and Coakley seem to go out of her way to avoid simple declarative statements or responses.

    To the degree that I was able to parse what she said, there seemed to be no content.

    My presumption was that she erred on the side of caution, but I could be wrong…

  14. I think the candidates understood (1 Reply)

    … both the tech-internal and generic meaning of the word, but didn’t want to create a soundbite that could be used against them later.

  15. Yawkey and Racism (1 Reply)

    There is some interesting history here, here, and here.

    I believe that a quote from the article linked last is sufficient proof:

    While the Red Sox were declining in the late Forties and Fifties, Yawkey had well-documented opportunities to sign great black players like Jackie Robinson and Willie Mays, yet somehow couldn’t see past their skin color. Higgins was prone to using racist slurs, yet Yawkey not only kept him on as manager for several years, he promoted him to general manager, guaranteeing a team policy of “blacks need not apply.”

  16. Actually 2012 turnout was lower (2 Replies)

    …than in 2008 and 2004.

    From CNN on November 8, 2012:

    …the Center for the Study of the American Electorate, put 2012 voter turnout at 57.5% of all eligible voters, compared to 62.3% who voted in 2008 and 60.4% who cast ballots in 2004. In 2000, the turnout rate was 54.2%.

    I did not attempt to equate correlation with causation. My premise was that the increase in cell phone-only households, a fractured media environment, and lack of community-embedded field reinforce civic disengagement in election cycles.

    I think that the low turnout in the September 9 Primary is a useful datum to support that premise.

  17. The broader social context... (1 Reply)

    …was described by Robert Putnam in his book Bowling Alone: The Collapse and Revival of American Community, back in 2000.

    In the days prior to mass ownership of land-line phones, political parties were embedded in broad civic life, not limited to election cycles. County or precinct-based political organizations were social as well as electoral. GOTV was as a consequence literally a neighbor-to-neighbor affair and less dependent on mass media (newspapers excepted). When telephone ownership became common in the 1950′s, banking augmented, but did not replace the civic aspects of electioneering.

    The crisis in social cohesion has gotten worse since 2000, IMHO.

    Hence the “pre-radio” reference as an observation of the practical political implications of – and possible solution to – a political environment where citizens are largely organically disengaged from day-to-day political engagement.