paulsimmons

Person #2547: 113 Posts

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  1. Barr is bigger and more powerful. (0 Replies)

    …and is arguably much more militantly pro-charter school than TBF.

    A useful overview can be found here.

  2. Actually your biggest threat comes from the philanthropic Left (1 Reply)

    Specifically the Boston Foundation.

    The role of the Barr Foundation in this was addressed earlier on this site.

    As can be seen here and here, TBF supports increased charter schools, and given the activist community’s dependence upon their resources for funding (and the lack of credible opposition on the ground in the Commonwealth’s urban communities as I write this) …

  3. The Apollo One disaster happened during a testbed operation. (0 Replies)

    …but broadly, it took from 1961 to 1969 to engineer the means for the first Moon flight; and three programs: Mercury, Gemini, and Apollo.

    That being the case, both you and Christopher are right.

  4. Let's agree to disagree (1 Reply)

    …since we have different frames of reference on this.

    Prior to the Khan speech at the Democratic Convention, Trump’s actions accrued to his political advantage; and hence were rational. It was the specific target of Trump’s contempt, not the action per se that caused the backfire.

    In the absence of a son who gave his life for his country, attacking the Khans would have worked. Because the decision to attack was rational and fit Trump’s history of rational and successful exploitation of fear and bigotry (and since I’m not licensed to practice psychiatry), I’ll forego playing games with the DSM, and call it as I see it.

  5. Pseudo-therapeutic analyses ignore the existence of evil (1 Reply)

    Trump is following in a long line of demagogues that exploit legitimate fears for personal advantage. The technique backfired (for the moment) only because respect and empathy for the Khans’ status as Gold Star Parents trumped (pun intended) their Muslim faith and Pakistani origins, even among much of Trump’s support base.

    While Donald Trump is pathological, he is not mentally ill: he is merely continuing a pattern that never failed him in the past.

    Trump lies and rabble-rouses for the simple reason that it has worked to his benefit for more than thirty years. He is failing not due to irrationality, but due to overreach.

    To paraphrase Talleyrand, Trump’s antics are worse than crimes; they are blunders.

  6. The graph is up-to-date (1 Reply)

    HuffPo/Pollster, RealClearPolitics, FiveThirtyEight.com and most other such sites use polling aggregates; sometimes augmented by models, sometimes not.

    The HuffPo/Pollster aggregate (linked to here) includes the MassINC survey under the heading “Latest Polls”.

  7. Individual votes become aggregates, and small aggregates can determine elections. (2 Replies)

    For your consideration, let’s consider New Hampshire in 2000.

    Gore received 266,348 votes.

    Bush received 273,559 votes.

    Nader received 22,198 votes.

    I’m not bashing Nader; I merely point out that 7,212 extra votes in New Hampshire (with its four electoral votes) would have given Gore the Presidency, Florida notwithstanding.

  8. Carter's DCI was Admiral Stansfield Turner (1 Reply)

    Casey was appointed by Reagan as Director of Central Intelligence after serving as his campaign manager in the 1980 election.

  9. A possible, REPEAT POSSIBLE, silver lining (0 Replies)

    One of the things that irritates me to no end is this premise (mostly in Democratic wonk circles; their Republican colleagues are usually smarter) that they can model elections and avoid doing competent work on the ground. In particular folks who think that they can micro-target their way to Heaven (while being illiterate about little nuances on the ground) are on my perpetual shit list.

    Well we now see what happens when people memorize the map and ignore the road.

    But there is hope.

    One of the bigger ironies of this race is that many Sanders supporters have a great deal of credibility in many pro-Trump geographies in Appalachia and the industrial Midwest. Equally important is the fact that (unlike many Clinton operatives) they live in these areas.

    If things don’t get to far out-of-whack in Philadelphia, and enough on-the-ground Sanders supporters are enlisted to stop Trump (and not micromanaged by the Clinton campaign), it’s not out of the realm of possibility that virtue can triumph over evil.

    Thank God that Bernie is a class act.

  10. I don't recall laughing at Trump (0 Replies)

    …and I know firsthand how successful he’s been in Pennsylvania.

    Regarding that last point: I’ve noted my concerns on occasion.

  11. From John Nichols in The Nation: (0 Replies)

    Who also saw the implications of the poll.

    Trump knows how to exploit fears of the future. Democrats can only counter him with a vision for the future—a vision that respects those fears and addresses them. America is not a banana republic, but it is a vulnerable republic. Trump and his backers will seek to exploit that vulnerability—just as they exploited the vulnerabilities of an increasingly delusional Republican Party. Democrats must name and shame Trump’s politics of exploitation, and then they must counter it with a new politics that speaks to the better angels identified by the first Republican president: a fellow named Lincoln who would not recognize what has become of his party

  12. One problem: Trump's speech was successful (1 Reply)

    Per CNN/ORC’s instant polling:
    Overall Reaction:

    Very Positive: 57%
    Somewhat positive: 18%
    Negative: 24%

    Affect on voting for Trump:
    More Likely: 56%
    Less likely: 10%
    Not much affect: 32%

  13. No (0 Replies)

    Portugal, then under the Salazar dictatorship was a charter NATO member, and neither Greece nor Turkey’s periods under dictatorships adversely affected their NATO status.

  14. From the article: (0 Replies)

    Around her swirled a kinetic mix of police officers and protesters. Dozens of demonstrators had blocked Baton Rouge’s Airline Highway on Saturday to denounce the death four days earlier of Alton Sterling, shot by police outside a convenience store.

  15. To reinforce the point: (0 Replies)

    A report will be released on Friday which analyzes police procedures by offence by race.

    The study, “The Science of Justice: Race, Arrests, and Police Use of Force,” did not seek to determine whether the employment of force in any particular instance was justified, but the center’s researchers found that the disparity in which African-Americans were subjected to police force remained consistent across what law enforcement officers call the use-of-force continuum — from relatively mild physical force, through baton strikes, canine bites, pepper spray, Tasers and gunshots.

    “The dominant narrative has been that this happens to African-Americans because they are arrested in disproportionate numbers,” said Phillip Atiba Goff, a founder and president of the Center for Policing Equity, based at the John Jay College of Criminal Justice. “But the data really makes it difficult to say that crime is the primary driver of this. In every single category, the anti-black disparity persists.”

  16. Actually police fatal force incidents are increasing (1 Reply)

    Per the Washington Post, and:

    …The Post’s analysis suggests that the ubiquitous nature of video has not yet had the deterrent effect that police and civil rights groups have predicted — at least as it applies to fatal force.

  17. For your consideration (1 Reply)

    …an analysis of a recent Democracy Corps battleground poll in the Washington Post:

    What about Sanders’s impact? It’s true that the poll also shows that Democrats are very united behind Clinton, with 89 percent of them in these nine states supporting her.

    But peek below the toplines, and it’s clear there’s plenty of room for a Sanders endorsement to help Clinton. This becomes clear when you look at the breakdown of numbers among not just Clinton and Trump, but also with libertarian Gary Johnson factored in, because apparently, a lot of Sanders supporters are now going for Johnson.

    The poll finds that among voters who supported Sanders in the primary in the nine battlegrounds polled, 69 percent support Clinton, while six percent back Trump and another 17 percent support Johnson. What’s more, among millennials, it’s even more stark: 46 percent support Clinton, 24 percent back Trump, and 22 percent support Johnson.

    I mention in passing that Democracy Corps polling tends to have pro-Democratic house effects.

  18. Without revisiting the Hillary v Bernie civil wwar (0 Replies)

    …johntmay is correct about the lack of competent outreach to working class voters (of both genders), which is unfortunate, because there is underutilized potential for Democratic candidates.

    As is noted here and here, it is a cohort that is largely open to a culturally literate field operation.

    Alas, modern progressives aren’t generally known for culturally literate grassroots field…

  19. These programs (and the abuses thereof) have been going on for years (0 Replies)

    …and serve the primary purpose of driving down labor costs for employers. An early example is the Bracero Program (1942 -1964):

    Under the program, total farm employment skyrocketed, domestic farm worker employment decreased, and the farm wage rate decreased. Critics have noted widespread abuses of the program: workers had ten percent of their wages withheld for planned pensions but the money was often never repaid. Workers also were de-loused with DDT at border stations and were often placed in housing conditions deemed ‘highly inadequate’ by the Farm Service Agency. Other scholars who interviewed workers have highlighted some of the more positive aspects of the program, including the higher potential wages a bracero could earn in the United States.

    Sound familiar?