A group of seven Democratic and seven Republican senators have reached an agreement that apparently will avoid the invocation of the nucular option that would have demolished the Senate rules and ended the use of the filibuster on judicial nominees. According to Sen. John McCain’s brief outline of the deal:
Janice Rogers Brown, Priscilla Owen, and William Pryor will get up or down votes.
William Myers and Henry Saad are not guaranteed up or down votes (i.e., no commitment from Democrats not to filibuster).
"Extraordinary circumstances" is the key for future cloture votes – if such circumstances are present, then it would presumably be permissible to filibuster a nominee. What that actually means, and who would decide whether the condition is met, is as yet unclear.
I will post a copy of the agreement as soon as I can find one.
UPDATE: The deal is here.
You are fast, David. Just caught this online.
The big loser here is Frist. He looks like he doesn’t have control of his own caucus. Since Reid offered a compromise similar to this weeks ago, he doesn’t lose any face.Bush wins, too, though, as he gets the worst of his nominees confirmed.
Name Names.Any confirmed list of Senators involved? So far, all i have isRMcCainWarnerDeWineSnoweGrahamDLeibermanByrdLiandreu (sp)Nelson
All in all, I think the Republicans won this one. Prior to this, Democrats had blocked ten nominees, these seven included. Suddenly Bush renominates them. So what should the Republicans do? Democrats want none of them, Republicans want all of them. So in order to get some/all of them, they propose something worse: all of them AND end minority rights in the Senate. Democrats can only compromise by letting some of them through.The fact is, Democrats were cheated. They should’ve let the nuclear option go through and show just how stuck up Republicans are.
Well, if you don’t know if you had the votes to beat Frist straight up, this may be the next best thing. Being able to build some type of coalition against the extreme right elements of the GOP is good.Obviously keeping the notion of a filibuster alive with potential Supreme Court nominees is good. That said, I remain somewhat skeptical. Who is to say that this whole episode won’t play itself out again? “Extraordinary circumstances” is ultimately a meaningless concept. I see McCain and a lot of microphones, I guess the ’08 race is on .Still, anything that buys time til the ’06 midterms may be a good thing. There was a new CNN poll out http://www.cnn.com/2005/POLITICS/05/23/bush.poll/index.html today that ain’t good news for the elephants.
As I wrote (mostly quoting a dKos entry), I agree that sticking it to Frist is useful, but at the same time…these horrendous nominees get through, and there really isn’t a guarentee on an agreement of “extraordinary circumstances” – in fact, as the right wing ramps up on the 7 Republicans, attacking them for the compromise, some of them might be singing another tune by the time a SC nominee comes through. If only to save themselves from nasty battles in ’06 and beyond.So this is shaky at best, completely shooting ourselves in the foot, at worst.
As far as the courts go, the Dems lost. The GOP got 8 out of 10 of Bush’s renominees through. They kept the filibuster for when they’re no longer in power. Most importantly, there’s no agreement guaranteeing that they won’t pull this stunt off again.”Extraordinary circumstances?” It’s a blatant out. Any of those GOP senators can renig at any time. So, they get 8 out of 10, and we may not be able to “Bork” em later.But, it’s not a total loss. As far as national leadership goes, the GOP lost lots of face on this one. Frist’s efforts have been deflated. He no longer has the gusto of the GOP, and he doesn’t have his house in order. He’s also lost a big fight for the so-called-religious right.Ugh.
A compromise means that no one on either side is happy. In that sense, this is a successful compromise. Republicans feel like nothing has changed and Democrats feel like they’re being railroaded on judges.The benefits for the Democrats, though, I think are substantial. First, this exploits a rift in the Republican party between the moderates and the Dobsonites, led by majority leader Frist. The more their party is split, the better it is for us — remember we want either the moderates or the radicals to stay home in 2006. Frist is weakened as a potential 2008 nominee, while McCain is strengthened. A strong showing by McCain in 2008 again highlights the split between moderates and religious conservatives in the GOP. Second of all, it preserves the fillibuster for the Supreme Court, which is where we need it, not so much for when Renquist retires, but for when one of the less conservative judges decides to pack it in. What do the Republicans get? A couple of wingnut judges who they’d only replace with a couple of other wingnut nominees if these were rejected.
So, is it a fait accompli that Brown, Owen, and Pryor will be confirmed by an up/down vote?
Very likely, unless for some reason 6 Republican Senators jump ship and vote against confirmation. I don’t think anyone sees that as very likely.But look – Myers and Saad will not get a vote, and the NYT is reporting that two other bad nominees who are not mentioned in the deal (Kavanaugh and Haynes) are also dead in the water. If this goes the way it looks right now, Frist is neutered, Bush doesn’t get up-down on all his nominees, and Dems come out looking pretty decent, IMHO.
I’m not sure what kind of world it is when McCain represents the GOP moderates versus the far right elements. He got a 90% rating from the Birchers in 2004, 83% with the Christian Coalition. To be fair, he got a 35% from the ADA and 45% from PIRG. What he does have is the aura of independent judgement and credibility. So while it’s good to see Frist go down here, McCain is probably much more dangerous to electing a Dem in ’08.
Well, yes, it’s crazy that we now live in a time where a Goldwater Republican (like McCain) is considered a moderate. For better or for worse, though, he represents the faction of the Republicans who are willing to buck the Bush/Rove/Frist line, and that’s all it takes to be a moderate these days.AS for 2008, McCain may still run, but I don’t think he’ll win the Republican nomination. His appeal, I think, more with independent voters than with the types of Republicans who come out for primaries. Especially southern primaries.
It still all makes me sad. But there wasn’t really anything else to do.I do agree, there’s blood in the water with the far right now – fine, let them tear each other apart. And it’s more evident now to Republican moderates that hey, you aren’t welcome in your own party.Those Republican senators which made the deal are likely going to be huge targets for the far right now.
Second of all, it preserves the fillibuster for the Supreme Court – scoDoes it? The filibuster is preserved for “extraordinary circumstances” or somesuch. What happens when DeWine, Graham, etc. don’t believe that the circumstance for the SCOTUS nomination is extraordinary? The agreement is nullified, and the GOP “moderates” can effectively renig.Now, maybe they will, and maybe they won’t. But, I can’t see an argument for assuring that they won’t.